Starting Points

Apr 19, 2012

Wall Street Journal - April 19, 2012

How Will Partai Aceh Govern?

Sidney Jones, Tempo | 19 Apr 2012

The extraordinary victory of Partai Aceh (Aceh Party) raises questions about how Aceh will develop in the next five years. Will it grow into an authoritarian one-party enclave in the middle of democratic Indonesia or become a model for the transformation of a guerrilla movement into a responsible political force?

It is worth looking at why Partai Aceh won by such huge margins: close to 55 per cent overall and more than 70 per cent in the populous districts along the east coast. Intimidation, while significant, cannot explain these numbers.

Acehnese told us repeatedly last week that the election was about peace and security – avoiding any return to conflict and ensuring a sense of personal safety. Partai Aceh leaders successfully portrayed themselves as both the leaders of the guerrilla struggle and the architects of the 2005 peace. They also suggested vaguely, however, that if they weren’t elected, there could be trouble.

Some gave other reasons for choosing the party. Several young intellectuals argued that GAM’s transition from guerrilla group to party was incomplete, and it needed more time to finish the process. If the former rebels lost this time, they might opt out of the political process in a way that would have long-term negative implications for Aceh.

The most important factor in the vote, however, was almost certainly the party’s ability to mobilise the populace through the Komite Peralihan Aceh or KPA, the post-conflict name for the old guerrilla structure--and here is where some of the problems lie. The KPA is led down to the village level by former commanders, and in many areas it is indistinguishable from the party.

The KPA has no legal status, but its senior members are often powerful local warlords, grown rich through securing construction contracts and other concessions. As former combatants, they are used to obeying orders from above and securing obedience from below. When a political party is superimposed on this structure, the result has been an often autocratic organisation with little tolerance for dissent.

In Langsa, we were sitting with a group of NGO leaders discussing the election, when suddenly one lowered his voice and whispered, “Careful, it’s not sterile here.” In the Soeharto days, that used to be the reaction when a suspected military or intelligence agent appeared. This time, it was a local Partai Aceh man who had entered, and our friends were afraid of being overheard; the party is widely believed to have its own network of informers. Several local offices of the election oversight body, Panwas, said it was difficult to follow up reports of Partai Aceh violations because witnesses were afraid to come forward.

If the party is to lead Aceh in a positive direction it needs to disassociate itself from and/or dissolve the KPA, gradually rid itself of military attributes (the party’s paramilitary task force or satgas wears red berets and camouflage uniforms) and recruit new blood on college campuses. A younger, better educated faction of the party says it is trying to open the party up and make it less exclusive, but it won’t happen overnight.

This raises the question of what Partai Aceh’s political agenda will be going forward, now that it controls both the executive and legislative branches of the provincial government. While the campaign was devoid of specifics, the party has a detailed platform for preserving the peace, improving government, reducing poverty, and strengthening Achenese culture and values. If the party uses it as a guideline for policies, it could win over some sceptics, although the track record of the party’s legislators is poor.

One party worker said the top legislative priority was the draft regulation on the Wali Nanggroe, an institution agreed on in Helsinki as a ceremonial position for the late Hasan di Tiro. Malek Mahmud, GAM’s former “prime minister” and Partai Aceh’s founder, has since assumed the title and role that some in the party’s old guard see as a kind of constitutional monarch. How the final version of this regulation emerges will send important signals about the party’s willingness to let go of some of its feudal tendencies.

Aceh’s development will also depend on Jakarta and the willingness of national institutions to confront the party if it challenges the constitution or acts outside the law. Local police have shown a distinct reluctance to move against the KPA. When several members were implicated in the killings of Javanese workers in December and January, it took the elite Detachment 88 from Jakarta to make the arrests, and many Acehnese doubt that there is much interest in probing the case further.

Likewise when the party last year refused to accept a Constitutional Court ruling, Home Affairs seemed to take its side, on the grounds that the largest party in Aceh had to be “accommodated” – and it was. The lesson may be that defiance of national institutions carries no costs, particularly as 2014 draws closer.

Many Acehnese we met assume that if its elected officials don’t deliver, they will be thrown out in five years. But with an absence of checks and balances, combined with an ability to direct significant resources to members, the party may be difficult to dislodge.

Whatever happens, Aceh’s experiment in post-conflict governance will be closely watched.

Sidney Jones is senior adviser to the Asia Program of International Crisis Group

Tempo

Today's Ringside Seat - American Prospect

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE

John McCain arrived in Washington on March 5, 2008, for a victory lap after he had bested Mike Huckabee in Ohio and Texas the night before. He swung by the White House to accept the endorsement of President George W. Bush in a Rose Garden ceremony. It could have certainly been a moment of awkwardness; the two were longtime political foes with an especially strained history after Bush's campaign created a racist whisper campaign about McCain's adopted daughter. Instead, Bush was nothing but gracious: "He’s going to be the president who will bring determination to defeat an enemy," he said, "and a heart big enough to love those who hurt.”
With Rick Santorum out of the picture, Mitt Romney is in the same spot McCain was on that day. But instead of an outpouring of accolades, party leaders have responded with a collective shoulder shrug. "Yeah, I support Governor Romney for president of the United States," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said yesterday under inducement from reporters. "And he is going to be the nominee. And as you have noticed, the party is in the process of unifying behind him." House Speaker John Boehner offered his nod as well, but kept the red carpet rolled up. “It’s clear now that Mitt Romney is going to be our nominee," he acknowledged. The ever-eloquent Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert expressed the prevailing attitude at a GOP press conference Tuesday. "I’m not as excited as I am desperate,” he said. But lest everything seem too dire, Gohmert offered a sunny side: “Whether you’re liberal, whether you’re very conservative, you ought to be excited [about Romney] because he’s been on your side at one time or another.”

SO THEY SAY

"I went through school, I worked my way through, it took me seven years, I never borrowed a dime of money. ... I have very little tolerance for people who tell me that they graduate with $200,000 of debt or even $80,000 of debt because there's no reason for that. We live in an opportunity society and people are forgetting that."

—North Carolina Republican Congresswoman Virginia Foxx

DAILY MEME: DOG EAT DOG

The Daily Caller creates its latest faux scandal by revealing (by quoting Dreams from My Father) that Obama ate dog when he was a child in Indonesia.
The Romney campaign’s Eric Fernstrom gets cheeky on Twitter.
The Obama campaign’s Ben LeBolt responds: “What's the next attack@EricFerhn and the RNC will surface on a 6-10 year old?”
PETA defends the president: “A child has an excuse” for such culinary habits, though not an adult.
Rush relates it to Jeremiah Wright for no apparent reason.
Meanwhile, Scott Brown launches his own dog blog.
Ann Romney claims Seamus “loved” riding atop the Romney family car.
But let's all take a deep breath and remember what's important: Pets love Newt(unless they're penguins).

WHAT WE'RE WRITING

Paul Waldman: How Mitt Romney’s supporters are like Seinfeld’s Uncle Leo.
Clare Malone: Does it matter that Congress can’t pass a budget?

WHAT WE'RE READING

Desperate for cash, Newt Gingrich sells his e-mail list to advertisers.
The Secret Service also likes to party with Ted Nugent.
Molly Ball: The Tea Party expands to Japan.
Alec MacGillis: We can thank Mitt Romney for quelling anti-tax rhetoric.
Charles Pierce: Please, Dems, pummel the demented GOP into submission.
Gary Younge: Obama, the Rorschach test president.
Somebody—namely Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell—actually says he would consider being Romney’s running mate.
Virginia Senate candidate releases taxes; likes space shuttles and pieces of string.

POLL OF THE DAY

Orrin Hatch—senior Utah senator and master songwriter—appears poised to regain his party's nomination, but only by a narrow margin. Utah Republicans hold their party convention this weekend and according to a poll Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, he has the support of 63 percent of the delegates. If he doesn't clear 60 percent he'll be forced into a primary this June, the situation his former colleague Bob Bennett faced two years ago when grassroots conservatives booted the incumbent out of office.

EAST TIMOR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Damien Kingsbury on Tue, 17/04/2012

When East Timor’s outgoing president, Jose Ramos-Horta, won office in 2007 by a crushing 69 per cent, many outsiders attributed the victory to his high profile as a campaigner for the country during the 24 years of Indonesian occupation. There is no doubt that Ramos-Horta was well known and well liked within East Timor, as well as outside, but his first round vote was a more modest 21 per cent.
So, too, when Taur Matan Ruak stood for the presidency last month, he achieved a respectable but modest 26 per cent. On Monday, his voted jumped to just over 61 per cent. It was backing and organisation by Xanana Gusmao that elevated Ramos-Horta to his unassailable final position. It was Xanana Gusmao’s backing that also secured the Taur Matan Ruak’s victory over Fretilin candidate Francisco ‘Lu-Olo’ Guterres.
Democratic politics is not – and should not be – about one particular individual. But there is little doubt that former resistance leader, president and now prime minister, Xanana Gusmao, has a charismatic status, coupled with a wily political instinct, which casts him as the towering force in East Timor’s politics.
Many, including other political actors, had believed that the result of presidential vote would be much closer than it transpired. This meant that the parliamentary elections of 7 July were expected to be a more open race, with no single party expected to achieve a majority in its own right and likely coalition options for government less clear.
With no single party likely to achieve a majority in the parliamentary elections, the question was who would be best placed to form a coalition. Fretilin has done well to rebuild its vote from its 2007 defeat. Similarly, the current ‘parliamentary alliance’ government led by Xanana Gusmao has been notable for, among other things, tensions between coalition members.
With its own candidate out of the presidential race, the influential Democratic Party (PD) remained neutral in Monday’s vote. Similarly, out-going President Jose Ramos-Horta, who supports PD in the parliamentary elections, also remained neutral.
But, on the spread of presidential voter returns, it appears that most voters who had supported PD or Ramos-Horta rejected Lu-Olo and accepted the candidate supported by Xanana Gusmao’s party, CNRT. The message this will send to the Democratic Party’s leaders is that, should they decide to join Fretilin in a coalition government, their support base could desert them.
Politics is always a tough game and nowhere more so than in a society devastated by a massively damaging war, on top of all of the problems of trying to develop this still dirt-poor country. Political deals are therefore often done despite personal differences and this may again be the case following the parliamentary elections.
It is this sometime fraught environment that has also led to outbursts of violence, as opposite camps compete for scarce resources. The 2007 elections were held very much in the shadow of the 2006 violence that brought East Timor to the brink of civil war. Despite a strong international security presence, those elections were marred by considerable violence and much destruction.
By contrast, the 2012 elections have been remarkably calm. There have been a few, relatively minor disturbances compared to 2007. But as the shape of the political landscape becomes increasingly clear following Monday’s ballot, tensions may again rise.
In particular, Fretilin appears adept at turning out a consistently strong single party vote, if to date less able to secure majority support from non-Fretilin parties. Should it receive the single largest vote, as it did in 2007, Fretilin will probably claim, as it has done since 2007, that under Section 106. Of the East Timorese constitution, the president is obliged to select the new prime minister from the party with the most votes in parliament.
Had Lu-Olo won the presidency, this would have been the likely outcome. However, Ruak may adopt his predecessor’s interpretation of the constitution, which says the prime minister can also be selected on the basis of commanding an alliance constituting a majority on the floor of the parliament. This is where the real tensions will be, as they were in 2007.
The UN is scheduled to draw down its presence by the end of the year and the Australian-led Stabilisation Force is scheduled to withdraw. The largely peaceful political environment to date suggests it is now time for the international community to let East Timor stand on its own two feet, and that is the preferred option within East Timor.
How the country goes into the parliamentary elections and, more importantly, how it comes out of them, will be the true test of whether East Timor has genuinely consolidated its democratic process. It will also be the test of whether East Timor can remain a stable, developing state.

New Law to Limit Power of Malaysia's RELA

19 April 2012 - KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is set to introduce a new law aimed at curtailing the power of Rela, the controversial volunteer squad that has long been accused of human rights violations against undocumented migrants in the country.

Tabled for the first reading in the Parliament on Tuesday, Malaysia Volunteer Corps (Rela) Bill 2012, if passed will strip Rela members of the power to detain or arrest any persons, including migrant workers.

The newly- tabled bill also forbid all Rela members to carry fire arms, only allowing them to assist any security force upon request by the respective authorities.

The bill also states the main duty of Rela is to control and divert motor vehicles. They will also assist in protecting buildings, installations or other properties belonging to the federal or state government.

Rela was formed in 1972 as a paramilitary unit under the now repealed Emergency Ordinance. Rela members, however, have been routinely accused of rights violations, including extortion and physical violence against migrant workers and refugees living in Malaysia.

Meanwhile Malaysian Home Minister, Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein said, the newly-tabled bill would `empower’ Rela members in more relevant ways despite taking away their power to detain, arrest or carry firearms.

"Training for members is now compulsory and employers of those called up for training not exceeding 10 days are required to grant leave."

"Malaysia has an institutionalised volunteer movement, an asset that we should not take for granted... I want to take the bigger approach and have Rela be more professional, more progressive, more a part of the overall transformation agenda," the Home Minister said.

Apr 18, 2012

New York Review of Books Blog

This week on nybooks.com: A challenge to the War on Drugs, what Vladimir Putin learned in the KGB, how science is like human rights, Frank Lloyd Wright’s favorite photographer, reading in the bathroom,stuttering, and the “negative space” of Central Park.

SPEECH

'The Paralysis of Stuttering'

Francine du Plessix Gray

Emperor Claudius I of Rome, Aristotle, Virgil, Demosthenes, Charles Darwin, opera star Robert Merrill, the young Winston Churchill, Marilyn Monroe, actor Louis Jouvet, and French revolutionary activist Camille Desmoulins were all stutterers.

LATIN AMERICA

An End to the War on Drugs?

Alma Guillermoprieto

Drug policy is an ideological live wire. But for the first time, Latin American leaders, led by Guatemala's president, are discussing alternatives to the US-led War on Drugs. Is there a better way?

RUSSIA

Vladimir's Tale

Anne Applebaum

Putin doesn’t merely dislike his would-be opponents, he believes that they are sinister agents of foreign powers. He doesn’t just object to the liberal political system they support, he believes they are plotting to “usurp power” and hand the country over to rapacious outsiders.

PHOTOGRAPHY

Modernism's Slyest Lens

Martin Filler

A major retrospective of photographer Pedro Guerrero’s work traces his career from his images of Frank Lloyd Wright’s buildings in their natural settings to his deceptively suave photographs depicting the rise of America’s car culture in the 1960s.

TRIBUTE

Fang Lizhi, a Galileo for Our Time

Perry Link

Fang’s path through life observed a pattern that is common to China’s dissidents: a person begins with socialist ideals, feels bitter when the rulers betray the ideals, resorts to outspoken criticism, and ends in prison or exile. But Fang was a natural scientist, and this made him different in important ways.

ESSAY

The Bathroom Muse

Charles Simic

Has there ever been any survey conducted among those who lock themselves in the bathroom inquiring how they spend their time? Do they read, smoke, talk to themselves, think things over, say their prayers, or just stare into space?

MEMOIR

Negative Space

Thomas Beller

There is so much action in New York one is sometimes perversely excited by those moments, or those places, when one is not part of it. Where nothing is happening. These places, in turn, become little air-pockets of possibility—what I call negative space.