Jun 16, 2009

Barack Hoover Obama: The Best and the Brightest Blow It Again

Harper's Magazine, July 2009

By Kevin Baker

Kevin Baker’s most recent novel, Strivers Row, is the final installment in his “City of Fire” trilogy about New York City. His last article for _Harper’s Magazine, _”Change Without Movement,” appeared in the June 2009 issue.

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Three months into his presidency, Barack Obama has proven to be every bit as charismatic and intelligent as his most ardent supporters could have hoped. At home or abroad, he invariably appears to be the only adult in the room, the first American president in at least forty years to convey any gravitas. Even the most liberal of voters are finding it hard to believe they managed to elect this man to be their president.

It is impossible not to wish desperately for his success as he tries to grapple with all that confronts him: a worldwide depression, catastrophic climate change, an unjust and inadequate health-care system, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the ongoing disgrace of Guant·namo, a floundering education system.

Obama’s failure would be unthinkable. And yet the best indications now are that he will fail, because he will be unable—indeed he will refuse—to seize the radical moment at hand.

Every instinct the president has honed, every voice he hears in Washington, every inclination of our political culture urges incrementalism, urges deliberation, if any significant change is to be brought about. The trouble is that we are at one of those rare moments in history when the radical becomes pragmatic, when deliberation and compromise foster disaster. The question is not what can be done but what must be done.

We have confronted such emergencies only a few times before in the history of the Republic: during the secession crisis of 1860–61, at the start of World War II, at the outset of the Cold War and the nuclear age. Probably the moment most comparable to the present was the start of the Great Depression, and for the scope and the quantity of the problems he is facing, Obama has frequently been compared with Franklin Roosevelt. So far, though, he most resembles the other president who had to confront that crisis, Herbert Hoover.

The comparison is not meant to be flippant. It has nothing to do with the received image of Hoover, the dour, round-collared, gerbil-cheeked technocrat who looked on with indifference while the country went to pieces. To understand how dire our situation is now it is necessary to remember that when he was elected president in 1928, Herbert Hoover was widely considered the most capable public figure in the country. Hoover—like Obama—was almost certainly someone gifted with more intelligence, a better education, and a greater range of life experience than FDR. And Hoover, through the first three years of the Depression, was also the man who comprehended better than anyone else what was happening and what needed to be done. And yet he failed.


The story of the real Herbert Hoover reads like something out of an Indiana Jones script, with touches of Dickens and the memoirs of Albert Schweitzer. Orphaned and penniless by the age of nine, Hoover was raised by an exploitative uncle who considered him more chattel than son. He had no illusions about the America he grew up in, writing years later, “As gentle as are the memories of the times, I am not recommending a return to the good old days. Sadness was greater, and death came sooner.”

Removed from public school at fourteen to work as his uncle’s office boy, Hoover nonetheless learned enough at night school to make the very first class at the newly opened Stanford University, where he studied geology and engineering. He paid his own way by working as a waiter, a typist, and a handyman, and eventually running a laundry service, a baggage service, and a newspaper route. (Unsurprisingly, his favorite book was David Copperfield.) After graduation, he ran mining camps and scouted new strikes around the globe. It was an adventurous life; on one occasion he made a small fortune by following an ancient Chinese map and tiger tracks into a moribund silver mine in Burma. By the time he was forty, Hoover was worth $85 million in today’s dollars, and he retired from business to take up public life. “The ideal of service,” he would later write, was no burden on the striving entrepreneur but a “great spiritual force poured out by our people as never before in the history of the world.”

He had long lived up to his ideals. Caught in the siege of the Western delegations in Peking during the Boxer Rebellion of 1900, only Hoover and his fearless wife, Lou, cared enough to sneak food and water to the Chinese Christians besieged elsewhere in the city. He first came to national attention after the start of World War I, when he led the effort to feed the 7 million people of occupied Belgium and France. He worked for free, donated part of his own fortune to the cause, and risked his life repeatedly crossing the U-boat–infested waters of the North Atlantic. His postwar relief efforts rescued millions more throughout Europe and especially in the Soviet Union; it’s unlikely that any other individual in human history saved so many people from death by starvation and want. Questioned about feeding populations under Bolshevik control, he banged a table and insisted, “Twenty million people are starving. Whatever their politics, they shall be fed!” In 1920, many people in both major parties wanted to run him for president, but he opted for the Republican cabinet. As secretary of commerce under Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge, he was a dynamic figure, tirelessly promoting new technologies, work-safety rules, and voluntary industry standards; he supervised relief to Mississippi and Louisiana during the terrible 1927 floods and advocated cooperation between labor and management.

“We had summoned a great engineer to solve our problems for us; now we sat back comfortably and confidently to watch the problems being solved,” the journalist Anne O’Hare McCormick wrote of Hoover’s inauguration in March 1929, in words that might easily have been used in January 2009. “Almost with the air of giving genius its chance, we waited for the performance to begin.”


Genius got its chance less than eight months after Hoover was sworn in, when the stock market collapsed. At the time, such an event wasn’t seen as having anything much to do with the president. Wall Street crashes happened every five to ten years in the old American economy, and it was understood that these crashes would sometimes start nationwide recessions. They might last a year or two, like the recession that started in 1920, or for much longer, like the devastating depression that began in 1873 and, according to some economists, didn’t really end until 1897. How long would it take to recover from the crash of ‘29? Who could know? Mere politicians were supposed to leave the outcome to the workings of the market. But Hoover—much like Obama—plunged right in, with a response that was designed to rise above old ideological battles and effect a new partnership between the public and private sectors. Less than a month after the Wall Street crash, he began what would be weeks of meetings at the White House with hundreds of “key men” from the business world. There the president briefed them on everything he had done so far and urged them to cut as few jobs as possible for the duration of the slump. He also encouraged public and private construction projects, signed bills recognizing the right of unions to organize, and used the fledgling Federal Reserve both to ease credit and to discourage banks from calling in their stock-market loans.

All of these projects were anathema to old-line conservatives in Hoover’s own party, such as Andrew Mellon, the tax-slashing secretary of the treasury throughout the go-go years of the 1920s boom, who offered the president the absurdist advice to let the market “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” Cutting one of the main ties to the trickle-down wisdom of what was suddenly a previous era, Hoover eventually shipped Mellon off to serve as ambassador to England.





Yet there remained little immediate action that the president could take, hobbled as he was by the limits of a federal government that made up less than 4 percent of the GDP and by the reluctance of those around him to interfere in any way with the sanctity of the markets. At what John Kenneth Galbraith would later skewer as “no-business” meetings, the key men of industry pledged their full support, then went home to slash wages and cut as many jobs as they could. By the end of 1930, the gross national product had dropped by nearly 13 percent, unemployment had shot up to nearly 9 percent, and over 600 banks had closed. The Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives, but the primary response to the Depression offered by their laconic speaker, “Cactus Jack” Garner, was a national sales tax designed to balance the budget. Liberal legislators in both parties were more sympathetic, but they wielded little power.

As the Depression spread around the world, Hoover—like Obama—towered above the squabbling, suspicious leaders of Europe as well. Only Hoover, who had lived all around the world (like Obama) and also been part of the U.S. delegation at Versailles, seemed to understand the true threat the Depression posed to the global economy. Democratic forms of government were under assault everywhere in the West, and especially in the Weimar Republic, still staggering under the indemnity the victorious Allies had imposed on Germany in 1919. Hoover sought to alleviate the growing world credit crunch by pushing through a moratorium on the repayment of Europe’s considerable war debt to the United States—on the condition that the Allies also forgave Germany its indemnity. It was an example of statesmanship at its most enlightened, and if any single U.S. action at the time could have prevented the rise of the Nazis to power, this would have been it.

Back on the domestic front, Hoover tried to organize national, voluntary efforts to hire the unemployed, provide charity, and create a private banking pool. When these efforts collapsed or fell short, he started a dozen Home Loan Discount Banks to help individuals refinance their mortgages and save their homes, and created an unprecedented government entity called the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Authorized to spend up to the then-astonishing sum of $2 billion, the RFC was a direct rebuttal to Andrew Mellon’s prescription of creative destruction. Rather than liquidating banks, railroads, and agricultural cooperatives, the RFC would lend them money to stay afloat.

Hoover, as the historian David M. Kennedy writes, had shown “himself capable of the most pragmatic, far-reaching, economic heterodoxy,” a trait that “would in the end carry him and the country into uncharted economic and political territory.” New Dealer Rexford Tugwell would, many years later, claim that “practically the whole New Deal was extrapolated from programs that Hoover started.” Indeed, “Hoover had wanted—and had said clearly enough that he wanted—nearly all the changes now brought under the New Deal label.”

Tugwell’s appraisal, though considerably exaggerated, nonetheless testifies to the boldness of Hoover’s program. The only problem was that it did not work. The nation’s credit system still would not thaw, banks kept falling like dominoes, unemployment rates and human suffering continued to rise. For all of his willingness to break with precedent and intervene directly in the economy, Hoover remained unable to turn his back fully on what Kennedy describes as the prevailing “legacy of perception and understanding of economic theory.”

As Europe faltered, for instance, foreign gold began to flow out of America’s banks and back home. Hoover reacted by increasing interest rates and raising taxes, in an effort to further deflate the economy, balance the federal budget, and thereby lure the gold back. This was the textbook economic response of the time to fleeing gold reserves; in the midst of the Great Depression, it was a disaster.

Meanwhile, the RFC was derided by populist critics as “bank relief” and “a millionaire’s dole”—criticisms echoed today by all those who see George W. Bush’s Troubled Asset Relief Program and Obama’s own Public-Private Investment Program as outrageous giveaways. And, as Kennedy points out, once Hoover had set in motion the great bank bailout of 1931, he “had given up the ground of high principle” and “implicitly legitimated the claims of other sectors for federal assistance.” Critics raised the same criticisms they would raise about Obama’s bailout plans seventy-eight years later. If the banks get a bailout, why not everyone else? Were bailouts only for the rich?

Exacerbating the entire situation was the RFC itself. Hoover’s leading weapon to combat the Depression performed with TARP-like languor, secrecy, and nepotism. Throughout 1932, as banks continued to topple by the hundreds, the RFC disbursed only three-quarters of its available money. Although Hoover had declared that the agency was “not created for the aid of big industries or big banks,” a record of its operations revealed that most of its money had indeed gone to a very few of the country’s biggest financial institutions. In June of 1932, the RFC’s president, Charles G. Dawes—who had just served as vice president of the United States under Calvin Coolidge—resigned his post, took a new job as head of the Central Republic Bank in Chicago, and promptly secured for his employer an RFC loan that nearly equaled the bank’s total deposits. Dawes’s successor, Atlee Pomerene, then lent another $12 million to a Cleveland bank of which he remained a director.

These facts were, in the end, wrestled out in the open only by congressional fiat. The recipients of some $642 million of the RFC’s loans—nearly half its total expenditures—were not revealed at all. Hoover, like Obama, had insisted on secrecy to keep the proceedings from being “politicized,” but, inevitably, this fear of politicization in the end only led to more politics. The writer John T. Flynn, who reported much of the RFC scandal in the pages of this magazine, found that most of the money was distributed “by a group of directors drawn from those business groups whose performances during the pre-crash years have rendered them objects of suspicion to the American people” and that the “immense sums they dispensed were given to borrowers, many of whom, to put it mildly, have forfeited, justly or unjustly, the confidence of the people.”

The RFC’s deliberations were understood—with good reason—not as effective management but as insider dealing: common financial practice through the 1920s, but politically and morally insupportable at a time when millions of Americans were losing their jobs, their homes, and their savings, and when some were literally dying of starvation. What’s more, even the loans that were made proved less than effective. The rescued banks, much like the rescued banks today, simply hoarded the new capital and refused to venture out into the marketplace.

Neither the RFC nor any of Hoover’s other programs did anything to seriously address the other major problems then plaguing the American economy: the decades-long farm crisis that was sweeping away Dust Bowl farmers’ actual soil along with their holdings; the near annihilation of the labor movement; a wildly unequal distribution of wealth; the lack of any real safety net for the old, the indigent, and the unemployable; a corrupt, non-transparent financial system that remained largely unregulated—in short, the need for systematic, wholesale reform of a nation that had foundered on the changing circumstances of the modern world.

It would have been very difficult to make most of these changes, because by and large they were advocated only by what were then the most radical individuals on the fringes of the political system. The one thing to be said in favor of such changes was that they were absolutely necessary.

By the summer of 1932, the country was in a state of near rebellion, with the “Bonus Army” of angry veterans camped out in Washington, farmers dumping their produce on the highways in protest, and mobs forcibly stopping evictions in the cities. The liberals in Congress had moved at last beyond Hoover, with even Jack Garner backing a $2.1-billion package of public works and direct relief. Hoover vetoed it, warning against the moral entrapments of “the dole.”


Why was Herbert Hoover so reluctant to make the radical changes that were so clearly needed? It could not have been a question of competence or compassion for this lifelong Quaker, who had rushed sustenance to starving people around the world regardless of their nationalities or beliefs. Ultimately, Hoover could not break with the prevailing beliefs of his day. The essence of the Progressive Era in which he had come of age—the very essence of his own public image—was that government was a science. It was not a coincidence that this era brought us the very term “political science,” along with the advent of “nonpartisan” elections and “city managers” to replace mayors.

Since the 1890s, Hoover and his contemporaries had promoted this brand of progressivism as an alternative not only to the political and corporate corruption of the Gilded Age but also to the furious class and regional warfare that progressivism’s predecessor, populism, seemed to promise. Progressivism aspired to be something of a political science itself, untrammeled by ideological or partisan influence: there was a right way and a wrong way to do things, and all unselfish and uncorrupted individuals could be counted on to do the right thing, once they were shown what that was.

There were plenty of progressives, led by Teddy Roosevelt, who understood that bringing real change meant fighting to bust up trusts, regain public ownership of utilities, and secure rights for labor, women, and others. But the great national effort inspired by World War I softened memories of the bitter class conflict that had characterized much of American politics since the Civil War, just as the rollicking prosperity of the 1920s erased memories of the postwar Red Scare and the crushing of labor unions. Throughout the decade, big business sought to co-opt any lingering labor resentments by forming “company unions” under what they called “the American Plan.” Volunteerism and boosterism would take care of the rest. Prosperity would come through an always rising stock market.

Hoover’s every decision in fighting the Great Depression mirrored the sentiments of 1920s “business progressivism,” even as he understood intellectually that something more was required. Farsighted as he was compared with almost everyone else in public life, believing as much as he did in activist government, he still could not convince himself to take the next step and accept that the basic economic tenets he had believed in all his life were discredited; that something wholly new was required.

Such a transformation would have required a mental suppleness that was simply not in the makeup of this fabulously successful scientist and self-made businessman. And it was this inability to radically alter his thinking that, ultimately, distinguished Hoover from Franklin Roosevelt. FDR was by no means the rigorous thinker that Hoover was, and many observers then and since have accused him of having no fixed principles whatsoever. And yet it was Roosevelt, the Great Improviser, who was able to patch and borrow and fudge his way to solutions not only to the Depression but also to sustained prosperity and democracy. It was FDR, brought up with the entitled, patronizing worldview of a Hudson Valley aristocrat, who was able to overcome attachments to all classes, all theories. It was Roosevelt who understood the imperfections, the rough-and-tumble of politics. The programs of the First and Second New Deals were a hodgepodge of ideologies—which is precisely why they worked. The innovations they brought about, however sloppily, were the core of twentieth-century American liberalism in that they reflected the complex ever-changing realities of the modern world.

Originally, Roosevelt, too, endorsed much of the progressive vision—or at least its pale 1920s imitation—as evidenced by his National Recovery Administration, a flabby utopian plan that would have had business, labor, and government collaborate to set prices, wages, and industry standards down to the most minute details. The NRA would have carried 1920s-style business progressivism right to the doorstep of the corporate state, had it been even vaguely workable. But right from the beginning, Roosevelt also endorsed reforms, from regulating Wall Street to saving the farmers to backing labor unions in their organizing wars, that required _conflict—_the only way in which a political and economic system can be fundamentally remade. When the NRA quickly proved to be a bust, FDR discarded it, and replaced his failure with the Second New Deal, in which business, labor, and government were situated as countervailing forces against one another—a fundamental power shift that enabled advances in both prosperity and democracy unmatched in human history.


Much like Herbert Hoover, Barack Obama is a man attempting to realize a stirring new vision of his society without cutting himself free from the dogmas of the past—without accepting the inevitable conflict. Like Hoover, he is bound to fail.

President Obama, to be fair, seems to be even more alone than Hoover was in facing the emergency at hand. The most appalling aspect of the present crisis has been the utter fecklessness of the American elite in failing to confront it. From both the private and public sectors, across the entire political spectrum, the lack of both will and new ideas has been stunning. When it came to the opposition, Franklin Roosevelt reaped the creative support of any number of progressive Republicans throughout his twelve years in office, ranging from New York Mayor Fiorello La Guardia to Nebraska Senator George Norris to key cabinet members such as Henry A. Wallace, Harold Ickes, Henry Stimson, and Frank Knox. Obama, by contrast, has had to contend with a knee-jerk rejectionist Republican Party.

More frustrating has been the torpor among Obama’s fellow Democrats. One might have assumed that the adrenaline rush of regaining power after decades of conservative hegemony, not to mention relief at surviving the depredations of the Bush years, or losing the vestigial tail of the white Southern branch of the party, would have liberated congressional Democrats to loose a burst of pent-up, imaginative liberal initiatives.

Instead, we have seen a parade of aged satraps from vast, windy places stepping forward to tell us what is off the table. Every week, there is another Max Baucus of Montana, another Kent Conrad of North Dakota, another Ben Nelson of Nebraska, huffing and puffing and harrumphing that we had better forget about single-payer health care, a carbon tax, nationalizing the banks, funding for mass transit, closing tax loopholes for the rich. These are men with tiny constituencies who sat for decades in the Senate without doing or saying anything of note, who acquiesced shamelessly to the worst abuses of the Bush Administration and who come forward now to chide the president for not concentrating enough on reducing the budget deficit, or for “trying to do too much,” as if he were as old and as indolent as they are.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid—yet another small gray man from a great big space where the tumbleweeds blow—seems unwilling to make even a symbolic effort at party discipline. Within days of President Obama’s announcing his legislative agenda, the perpetually callow Indiana Senator Evan Bayh came forward to announce the formation of a breakaway caucus of fifteen “moderate” Democrats from the Midwest who sought to help the country make “the changes we need” but “make sure that they’re done in a practical way that will actually work”—a statement that was almost Zen-like in its perfect vacuousness. Even most of the Senate’s more enlightened notables, such as Russ Feingold of Wisconsin or Claire McCaskill of Missouri or Sherrod Brown of Ohio, have had little to contribute beyond some hand-wringing whenever the idea of a carbon tax or any other restrictions on burning coal are proposed.

President Obama, with a laudable respect for the separation of powers, has left the details and even the main tenets of his agenda to be worked out by these same congressional Democrats. This approach looks like an exercise in democracy drawn from his days as a community organizer, the sort of strategy that helps a neighborhood to decide whether it wants, say, a health clinic or a youth center. What he doesn’t care to acknowledge is that, in the case of the U.S. Congress, he’s dealing with a neighborhood where maybe half want a health clinic and the rest are holding out for grenade launchers and crystal meth.

Some have suggested that this is a subtle strategy to ensure that the White House retains the whip hand, that Obama is reserving for himself the role of “decider” over competing plans. But what is the decision then? Half a health clinic and one grenade launcher? A plan for universal health care that is not universal and doesn’t cut costs will not work. A plan for combating climate change that perpetuates the shibboleth of “clean coal” will do nothing. Far from controlling the process, Obama’s procedure is more likely to commit him to one of Congress’s nebulous non-plans.

Yet Obama’s lack of direction, his lack of accomplishments in his Hundred Days and counting, cannot be attributed solely to his illusions about the august body he just vacated. Obama, like Hoover in his time, is almost alone among politicians in grasping the magnitude of the crisis. In his masterful February speech before the joint houses of Congress, Obama explained to the country why we cannot afford to continue with a tottering health-care system that has left 46 million Americans uninsured and that impedes our exports by adding, for instance, $1,500 to the cost of every GM car; why it is that climate change has to be addressed now, and how by addressing it we can regain our industrial base and actually begin to make things again; why it is that our financial system could not simply be bailed out and patched up but must be fundamentally reformed and re-regulated. Above all, he explained the necessary interaction of all these reforms, of how they were not just some liberal wish list but the actions that the radical moment demanded.

Speeches almost as powerful have followed, always linking these ideas together. But, like Hoover, Obama has been unable to make his actions live up to his words. Health care is being gummed to death on Capitol Hill. Obama has done nothing to pass “card check” provisions that would facilitate union organization and quietly announced that he would not seek stronger labor and environmental protections in NAFTA. He has capitulated on cap-and-trade in the budget outline and never even bothered to push for an actual carbon tax. Only minuscule portions of the stimulus bill or his budget proposals were dedicated to mass transit, and his indifference to the issue—what must be a major component of any serious effort to go green—was reflected in his appointment of a mediocre Republican time-server, Ray LaHood, as his transportation secretary.

Still worse is Obama’s decision to leave the reordering of the financial world solely to Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner, both of whom played such a major role in deregulating Wall Street and bringing on the disaster in the first place. It’s as if, after winning election in 1932, FDR had brought Andrew Mellon back to the Treasury. Just as Herbert Hoover could not, in the end, break away from the best economic advice of the 1920s, Barack Obama is sticking with the “key men” of the 1990s. The predictable result is that, even as he claims to recognize the interlocking nature of the problems facing us and vows to solve them as a whole, the president is in fact abandoning most of his program, at least for the time being.


No doubt, President Obama and his chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, would claim that by practicing “the art of the possible,” they are ensuring that “the perfect does not become the enemy of the good.” But by not even proposing the relevant legislation, Obama has ceded a key part of the process—so much so that his retreat seems not so much tactical as a reversion to his core political beliefs.

A major theme of Obama’s 2006 book The Audacity of Hope is impatience with “the smallness of our politics” and its “partisanship and acrimony.” He expresses frustration at how “the tumult of the sixties and the subsequent backlash continues to drive our political discourse,” and voices a professional appreciation for Ronald Reagan’s ability to exploit such divisions. The politician he admires the most—ironically enough, considering the campaign that was to come—is Bill Clinton. For all his faults, Clinton, in Obama’s eyes, “instinctively understood the falseness of the choices being presented to the American people” and came up with his “Third Way,” which “tapped into the pragmatic, non-ideological attitude of the majority of Americans.”

This is an analysis consistent with Obama’s personal story. Like Herbert Hoover, Obama grew up as an outsider and overcame formidable odds—hence his constant promotion of personal responsibility and education. He came of age in a time when hardworking young men and women like him went to Wall Street or to Silicon Valley, and—once properly “incentivized” by the likes of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton—seemed to save the national economy, creating what appeared to be great general prosperity while doing well themselves. There’s no need to do battle with these strivers and achievers, individuals as accomplished in their fields as Obama is in his. All that’s required is to get them back on their feet, get the money running again, and maybe give them a few new rules to live by, a new set of incentives to get them back on track.

Just as Herbert Hoover came to internalize the “business progressivism” of his era as a welcome alternative to the futile, counterproductive conflicts of an earlier time, so has Obama internalized what might be called Clinton’s “business liberalism” as an alternative to useless battles from another time—battles that liberals, in any case, tended to lose.

Clinton’s business liberalism, however, is a chimera, every bit as much a capitulation to powerful and selfish interests as was Hoover’s 1920s progressivism. We are back in Evan Bayh territory here, espousing a “pragmatism” that is not really pragmatism at all, just surrender to the usual corporate interests. The common thread running through all of Obama’s major proposals right now is that they are labyrinthine solutions designed mainly to avoid conflict. The bank bailout, cap-and-trade on carbon emissions, health-care pools—all of these ideas are, like Hillary Clinton’s ill-fated 1993 health plan, simultaneously too complicated to draw a constituency and too threatening for Congress to shape and pass as Obama would like. They bear the seeds of their own defeat.

Obama will have to directly attack the fortified bastions of the newest “new class”—the makers of the paper economy in which he came of age—if he is to accomplish anything. These interests did not spend fifty years shipping the greatest industrial economy in the history of the world overseas only to be challenged by a newly empowered, green-economy working class. They did not spend much of the past two decades gobbling up previously public sectors such as health care, education, and transportation only to have to compete with a reinvigorated public sector. They mean, even now, to use the bailout to make the government their helpless junior partner, and if they can they will devour every federal dollar available to recoup their own losses, and thereby preclude the use of any monies for the rest of Barack Obama’s splendid vision.

Franklin Roosevelt also took office imagining that he could bring all classes of Americans together in some big, mushy, cooperative scheme. Quickly disabused of this notion, he threw himself into the bumptious give-and-take of practical politics; lying, deceiving, manipulating, arraying one group after another on his side—a transit encapsulated by how, at the end of his first term, his outraged opponents were calling him a “traitor to his class” and he was gleefully inveighing against “economic royalists” and announcing, “They are unanimous in their hatred for me—and I welcome their hatred.”

Obama should not deceive himself into thinking that such interest-group politics can be banished any more than can the cycles of Wall Street. It is not too late for him to change direction and seize the radical moment at hand. But for the moment, just like another very good man, Barack Obama is moving prudently, carefully, reasonably toward disaster.

'The Unencumbered Man'

New York Review of Books, Volume 56, Number 11 · July 2, 2009

By Michael Tomasky

After Barack Obama's victory in the presidential election last November, the question arose whether the result should be seen as a realignment—a fundamental shift in party dominance that would continue for a good many years. That the era of conservative supremacy was over seemed clear. Beyond that, observers were divided. My view, expressed in these pages, was that such talk was premature and that any notion of Democratic dominance "would depend on what President Obama and the congressional Democrats did with their power."[1]

Now, seven months later, this picture is starting to come into focus. On the plus side we've seen the passage of a $787 billion stimulus package; an agreement on higher emissions standards for US-made automobiles that a chastened industry accepted (the President and his auto czar, Steven Rattner, are practically co-CEOs of General Motors and Chrysler, and thus could have their way); and a major credit-card reform bill.

Other moves have been less cheering, including a desultory and, say many liberal critics, deeply regressive scheme regarding the banks, with billions of taxpayer dollars going to some of the institutions responsible for the economic crisis, credit flowing only a little more freely than it had been, and no big, Glass-Steagall-style reform proposed as of yet (although new regulations of derivatives have been put forth). In addition, Obama's policies on detainees were seen by many civil libertarians as scarcely distinguishable from those during the last year of the Bush administration. He made a costly misstep by not preparing a timely, detailed plan for dealing with Guantánamo detainees, following his announcement in January that he would close the prison within one year.

More generally, there has been a sense among some liberal interest groups that their concerns are decidedly second-tier. Labor groups worry that "card-check" legislation that would make it easier for workers to form unions has stalled; and the lesbian and gay lobby suspects that repeal of the "don't ask, don't tell" policy in the military has been postponed.

Whatever the criticisms, though, the central fact is that, so far, Obama's coalition is holding together. This is true in the country at large, where his approval ratings, though down several points from the very early days, are still more than high enough to provide him political capital. And it's true among Democrats of all stripes in Washington. I recently conducted eighteen interviews (most of them off the record or "on background," alas) with administration officials, members of Congress and staff, operatives, and insiders—this in addition to casual conversations with other such people that come naturally in my line of work. I heard quibbles, and sometimes more than quibbles, especially about the bank bailout, which was often described as a transfer of wealth from the middle class to Wall Street.

By and large, though, I was struck by the sense of good feeling and optimism among these people. There was a broad understanding of the importance of the historical moment. In stark contrast to 1993 (Bill Clinton's first year as president), the factions within the Democratic Party are keeping their disagreements pretty quiet for now. People grasp that in this moment of high political capital, when they are up against a GOP that is becoming increasingly forceful in opposition, Democrats must prove this year that they can pass legislation that will fix the country's problems. And there was a confidence in their ability to do so that surprised me.

Health care reform and climate-change legislation are the two largest domestic items that will be coming along this summer and fall. Each is a huge undertaking—the former having eluded presidents going back a century, the latter entailing an enormous shift in federal policy. On January 20, when Obama was sworn in, I never would have been so rash as to venture that both would become law this year. Now this appears to be possible or even likely, although the question of whether the administration has gone too far in accepting Congress's terms is in both cases a valid one.



To the extent that internecine warfare is being sublimated in the pursuit of concrete gains, much of the credit for this goes to Obama himself, for two reasons. First, and this is very important to understand, he comes from no faction within the Democratic Party. He has managed to stand apart from all of them. Liberals assume that he's mostly one of their own, which he almost surely is at the level of personal values (strict civil libertarians are probably an exception here). Centrists see a leader who has placed moderates such as Timothy Geithner and Robert Gates in key posts, and who sends them ample signals that he will bring the liberals in line when he feels he has to—as with the refusal to release more photographs of detainee abuse.

Alone among the party's three leading candidates last year, Obama showed the ability to walk this tightrope. And while he does not always please liberals and centrists, he still has the basic trust of both. Will Marshall, of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, calls Obama "the unencumbered man" and says: "He's the least experienced president we've had in some time, but he's turned that into an asset. He comes in with no great mortgages held by any of the party factions."

The second reason for the common resolve has to do with the strategy being deployed by Obama, his chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, and his other lieutenants. Recall Emanuel's words to The Wall Street Journal last November, after Obama named him to his post: "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste." The Obama White House has lived by these words more aggressively than most observers would have guessed—offering the legislation mentioned above, a far-reaching crackdown on offshore tax havens, a scheme to overhaul the regulation of banks, and a proposal during his April trip to Europe for drastic reductions in nuclear weapons, among other initiatives.

Meanwhile, and more quietly, legislators are being summoned to the White House—for example, a working group on climate change—to be told by the President that "this is important to me." In addition, even if Obama has produced no positive results internationally, he has been visibly active, whether in trying to apply pressures in "Af-Pak," proposing talks on Iran and the Middle East, taking an unusually firm tone with Israel on the settlement question, or showing an unusual degree of interest in Lebanon, which both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden visited in advance of its important June 7 parliamentary elections. Three days before that vote, Obama was to deliver a major speech on democracy and human rights in Cairo.

The working theory of the White House seems to be to press as hard as possible on as many fronts as possible. A knowledgeable administration insider put it to me well: "I think one thing both Obama and Rahm get is that if the column just keeps rolling, the opposition can't really form."

That quote should ring true to any reasonably close observer of the last five months. But now we enter a new phase. Passing trillion-dollar legislation on, for example, health care reform, in which, by law, revenues have to equal outlays, is considerably harder than passing a stimulus bill on which no such demands were made (and even passing that legislation, as we saw, wasn't easy). Big legislation makes walking the tightrope far more difficult, because "in legislation," as one person told me, "there are winners and losers." So now opposition will come not only from Republicans, but also from some Democrats. The next six months—especially with regard to health care, climate change, and the disposition of the Guantánamo issue—may go a long way toward determining the President's fate.

The main legislative battle will be over health care. It's first worth noting that the bill now taking shape in Congress will not look very much like the health care reform Obama proposed during his campaign in at least two key respects, the first reflecting a difference he had with Hillary Clinton during the primary season, and the second reflecting a disagreement with John McCain during the run-up to the general election.

It was Clinton whose proposal included a so-called "individual mandate," requiring people who are uninsured to purchase health coverage as they do car insurance, in order to achieve universality (along the lines of the reform that has taken effect, with mixed results, in Massachusetts). Obama opposed this and criticized Clinton quite strongly at points—saying, for example, in an Austin, Texas, debate in February 2008 that "in order for you to force people to get health insurance, you've got to have a very harsh, stiff penalty." But now, any legislation presented to Obama is likely to include some form of a mandate, and he will sign it. It will not provide universal coverage—policy analysts estimate that it will insure about 30 million of America's 47 million uninsured and that it will likely take a number of years to reach that level. The administration, seeing that Congress preferred this approach, has warmed to it over the spring.

The second way in which a bill would depart from Obama's campaign script has even greater political and policy implications. For American workers, employer-based coverage is currently an untaxed fringe benefit.[2] John McCain's health care proposal called for eliminating that benefit, which would require employees who receive coverage through their employers to start paying taxes on the portion of their premiums that is deducted from their paychecks. On the trail, Obama criticized McCain's proposal as a tax increase on middle-income Americans. But now it's likely to be part of a final bill.

There are two reasons for these changes. The first is that Congress appears to want them, and it's Congress, not the administration, that's writing the legislation. Obama has named an interagency working group to sketch out health care reform legislation. It is led by Nancy-Ann DeParle, the White House health czar, and it includes Kathleen Sebelius, the secretary of health and human services; high-ranking HHS officials such as Jeanne Lambrew, a former academic and a coauthor of Tom Daschle's recent book on health care reform, Critical, and Neera Tanden, the highest-profile Hillary Clinton staffer to join Obama after the primary season; and administration economists such as Gene Sperling, who under Bill Clinton held the post that Lawrence Summers now occupies and is currently in the Treasury Department, and Jason Furman, a campaign adviser to Obama last fall who has become a top deputy to Summers.

This group will follow the lead of figures in Congress such as Senator Max Baucus of Montana, whose Senate Finance Committee has in recent weeks released a series of "options papers" on issues such as ways to expand coverage and generate revenue. Other legislators will be important here, either because they have partial jurisdiction or simply because of history: in the House, Californians Henry Waxman and George Miller, along with New York's Charles Rangel; and in the Senate, Ted Kennedy, whose Health, Education, and Labor Committee—it shares Senate jurisdiction with Baucus—is drafting legislation right now. The hope of the White House group is to have the legislators take responsibility for the bill and negotiate the details.

The second reason for the switch from Obama's campaign position—especially as it pertains to the McCain proposal—is that he now has to get serious about how to pay for all this. According to Jonathan Cohn of The New Republic, one of the country's top health care journalists, the Congressional Budget Office has recently estimated that health care reform will cost $1 trillion over ten years. As a candidate, Obama was pretty fuzzy about revenues, emphasizing cost savings. But there is ample skepticism about how much savings these proposals will produce. Such experts as Arnold Relman, whose article appears on page 38 of this issue of The New York Review, strongly doubt that Obama's reform will generate the $300 billion in savings assumed by the budget. Hence, administration officials—and Baucus, who initially opposed the McCain idea —have been coming around to it.

Health care experts, in shorthand, refer to this as the "exclusion" issue—that is, should employees' contributions to their health plans under employer-sponsored coverage continue to be excluded from taxation? (An employer's tax liability would be essentially unchanged.) As I commented in the June 1 issue of New York magazine, several possibilities are being explored. Eliminating exclusion altogether would of course raise the most money—some estimate that excluding employee contributions from tax now costs the federal government $200 billion a year, which would more than pay for reform. But this could cause some political problems for Obama, who vowed not to increase taxes on anyone earning less than $250,000.

How much could a partial elimination of exclusion raise? Professor Jonathan Gruber of MIT proposes a plan with the following features: no taxes on plans for families with incomes under $125,000; a tax on higher-end plans for families in the $125,000 to $250,000 range; and taxes on the premiums paid by families with incomes above that amount. This would generate, he estimates, at least $440 billion over eight years.

This would not fully pay for the reform, but it would probably be politically palatable to most parties. Many Republicans, arguing that the easy availability of coverage from employers leads to overuse of medical services by full-time employees, have long wanted to move away from employer-sponsored coverage and toward a system in which individuals purchase plans on the free market. Many nonpartisan health analysts agree with this, and add other points—for example, Gruber argues that the exclusion is also regressive (the higher an employee's tax bracket, the bigger the break). So they believe a change is long overdue. Liberals agree that over time this change will erode the entire system of employer-based insurance, but a compromise that taxes only people with incomes above $250,000, which seems most likely—permitting Obama to keep his pledge, and originating in Congress, so that Obama can say he didn't propose it—would affect only about 2 percent of taxpayers and thus would not radically alter the insurance market.

A central feature of Obama's campaign proposal for health care was the so-called "public option," by which the government could set up its own insurance company to compete with private insurers. This is the most controversial part of Obama's plan, and the most emotionally charged. It is emerging as a litmus test both for the powerful lobbies arrayed against it (insurers, doctors, and hospitals) and for liberals who want serious reform.

To the lobbyists, this is the dreaded "socialized medicine" that will limit consumer choice (though it will not, in fact) and get the government in the business of setting standards of care and reimbursement rates to doctors and hospitals. For the liberals, a public option is useful only if it's like Medicare, i.e., fully backed by a government that can support it with taxes and appropriations.

Republicans will oppose a public option, and many moderate Democrats are dubious about whether it's worth falling on their swords over it. Senator Chuck Schumer of New York has proposed creating a public health insurance plan, but one that would have to sustain itself on the premiums and co-payments paid by policyholders. A New York Times editorial favored this option[3] —a signal, perhaps, of prevailing winds. Others spoke to me of the possibility that the public option wouldn't survive the sausage-making phase at all: that perhaps a bill would include a trigger for a future public option if private insurers don't hew to the tighter regulations that a bill will impose upon them. Some believe that the lack of a public option might be acceptable if new regulations and oversight are sufficiently muscular. This will be intensely debated over the summer.

One strategic question will be whether the White House and congressional leaders will pass a bill on a partisan basis or try to enlist some GOP support. "Health care has to be bipartisan," says Tennessee Congressman Jim Cooper, a leader on health care issues among the Democratic moderates. History does show that most major social legislation has had bipartisan support, which helped sustain the created programs over the long haul (both Social Security in 1935 and Medicare and Medicaid in 1965 had such backing).

Cooper, who calls Schumer's compromise an "excellent" proposal, is heartened by the direction in which negotiations are moving and thinks getting up to forty GOP votes in the House could be possible. The Senate is another question, which is why Democratic leaders agreed earlier this year that if there's no bill by October 15, they would invoke a "reconciliation" provision to pass the revenue-related portions of the bill in that body. Under those rules, a cloture vote—requiring a super-majority of sixty—is not needed, so a bill can pass with a simple majority of fifty-one.

Connecticut Congresswoman Rosa De Lauro, a liberal who has a leadership position in the House, told me that she will "fight like hell for the full thing" on the public option. She acknowledged that it will be difficult, but she was resolute about the final outcome: "It's gonna happen. It's going to happen."

The details of the looming health care fight are interesting because they show us what happens when a White House political offensive runs up against the Ardennes Forest of Capitol Hill. The Obama administration has made it clear that it will compromise—it wants a bill while it has the political muscle to get one. But how much compromise is too much? Obama likes to refer to his position as one of "progressive pragmatism." That's a safe phrase for general public consumption. But some liberals suspect that it is the second word that counts.

With respect to climate change, again, there is a White House effort, led by climate adviser Carol Browner, who was head of the Environmental Protection Agency under Clinton, but Congress is writing the bill. The legislation, which comes from Henry Waxman and Massachusetts's Ed Markey, is a cap-and-trade bill, in which the federal government establishes emissions caps for utilities and other polluters. Companies that come in below the cap get credits, which they can sell at auction to companies that exceed the cap. Having to buy these credits gives companies that exceed their emissions allowances an incentive to lower their emissions—and, over time, the government lowers the overall cap.

Waxman and Markey's original legislation called for a reduction in carbon emissions of 25 percent by 2025. Sensing resistance, they went down to 20 percent by 2020. But legislators from both parties—those from coal-producing and other industrial states—still balked. On May 14, the two sponsors reached a deal with Virginia Democratic Congressman Rick Boucher, who negotiated for the coal and industrial states. They arrived at 17 percent by 2020. And not all credits would be auctioned; some will be given away. Final numbers aren't set yet, but apparently the percentage that will be auctioned will remain under 50 percent for several years, rising gradually. Boucher endorsed the deal but added that he hopes to lower that 17 percent figure once the bill reaches the House floor.

One environmental expert told me that the bill would represent a genuine breakthrough—the line proponents use is that it's the equivalent of taking 50 million cars off the roads every year for ten years—but acknowledged that it's also "a substantially weaker bill than the science would require." And so environmental groups are split. The League of Conservation Voters and the Natural Resources Defense Council support the bill, while Greenpeace, which tends to have a more left-leaning membership base, does not. There are also, the expert says, "serious, serious divisions in the industry right now" about whether business should play ball. In May, Duke Energy of Charlotte, North Carolina, quit the National Association of Manufacturers—the country's most influential business lobby after the Chamber of Commerce. Duke CEO Jim Rogers said, "We are not renewing our membership in the NAM because in tough times, we want to invest in associations that are pulling in the same direction we are."

Again, most people I spoke to predicted that a bill will pass, probably in November. (Senate Republicans may well see this differently.) There is a major climate-change meeting in Copenhagen in December, and it seems clear that the White House and Democrats in Congress want to have a law in hand by then.

As distasteful as some of these compromises will be to many in the Democratic base, it seems unlikely that Obama will lose much support over them. If both of these bills pass, there will be hundreds of news stories and columns that will begin, "Not since Lyndon Johnson..." or even "Not since Franklin Roosevelt..." Discourse in Washington tends to reduce to headlines; the headlines will proclaim Obama hugely successful on the domestic front, and in such an atmosphere the coalition will hold together to press the President for more.

The Guantánamo situation is far trickier. Congress's unwillingness to approve funds to close the facility is the administration's biggest setback so far, and it stems from what is clearly the administration's biggest political error. Not only did Obama announce in January that the place would be closed down without having worked out a practical alternative, but, in contrast to the (perhaps excessive) deference it is showing to Congress on health care and climate change, it later failed to present Congress with any clear plans at all. In such a situation, legislators are certain to flex their muscles, just to show a president that they matter, too. In addition, a Republican National Committee television advertising campaign, which implied that terrorists were going to be dumped in mainland neighborhoods, obviously had some effect on Democratic legislators.

Obama has certainly left civil libertarians and leading opponents of torture disillusioned. His decision not to release the photos of detainee abuse at prisons in Iraq and Afghanistan (a decision many other liberals, myself included, supported), his announcement in his major May 21 address that he would continue prolonged detentions in some cases, and his statement in that same speech that seemed to shut the door on both an independent commission to investigate past abuses and potential prosecutions of Bush administration officials are just three of several decisions he has made that have rankled his liberal supporters. But those are probably not make-or-break issues. Guantánamo unquestionably is. A party insider said to me: "At some point, he's got to close Guantánamo. Or his trust is blown."

Spokesman Robert Gibbs came right back after the crushing 90–6 Senate vote against funding the base's closure to confirm that it would be shuttered on schedule by January 22, 2010 (a year from the day Obama announced the intention to close it). But can he change the minds of forty-five senators (the difference between six and a majority)? The key figures here will be not Democrats, but John McCain and South Carolina's Lindsey Graham. Politico reported the day after Obama's speech that these two Republicans were sending positive smoke signals in the White House's direction.[4] They will probably come around, and bring lots of Democratic votes with them. But of course they will not do it free of charge: Graham has made it clear that he is against trying any terrorism suspects in federal courts, as Obama proposed for some cases.

Passing bills on health care and climate change and nailing down a deal to close Guantánamo would surely make for an impressive rookie year. But, to go back to where we started, would they herald Democratic dominance? No. The reforms, once passed, have to work. And this is where some of the people I spoke with remain nervous.

The Obama-Emanuel theory is to pass a bill, take what you can get, and fix it later: establish the principle. Some may prefer to wait for a much better time, when the stars are aligned for larger reform, but in politics there is almost never any such thing as a much better time. "People say they should propose X instead of Y, but Y is often on the outer edge of what's possible on the Hill," says Robert Greenstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. And, other defenders say, these are not small matters. John Podesta told me: "I fundamentally disagree with this idea that we're accepting warmed-over spit and that he's only moving an inch at a time. Insuring 30 million people? The equivalent of taking 500 million cars off the road? These are big, huge deals."

They are. But they need to happen in fact, not just in press releases when the bills are passed. So the question of whether workability is being sacrificed in order to get votes is a fair one that won't be answered for some time. And if these measures don't produce results, will the President still have the political capital to go back to Congress and ask for more legislation to fix what wasn't done right the first time?

The economy looms over everything else. Economists expect jobless numbers to increase over the rest of the year, and growth to remain negative. This will lead liberal economists to begin calling for another stimulus bill (an effort is already underway). Lawrence Mishel, an economist and the president of the liberal Economic Policy Institute, told me he plans to push for such a bill. Robert Rubin, well known for being a deficit hawk, has said on numerous occasions that he could support a second stimulus on two conditions: if the economy dips down again in a serious way, and if the stimulus comes with strict assurances about future deficit reduction.

The unencumbered man will find, over this pivotal summer, that the factions, whether centrist or liberal, will start to take out mortgages on him. That's the cost of big legislation. Obama and his team will have earned the right to celebrate if these bills pass; but the manner in which these outcomes are being achieved may set the precedent of giving Congress too much control in shaping the President's agenda. It's the best strategy for now, but control, once ceded, can be difficult to regain.

— June 3, 2009
Notes

[1]See "How Historic a Victory?," The New York Review, December 18, 2008.

[2]The entire employer-sponsored system is a hangover from the World War II era, when the government placed wage controls on domestic employment. Those controls were on wages only, not benefits, so employers began offering untaxed benefits to lure workers. It was intended to be temporary, but both employees and large corporations, which deduct their health plan costs from taxes, liked it, and nothing ever changed.

[3]"A Moderate Plan for Health Care," The New York Times, May 11, 2009.

[4]See Victoria McGrane, "Barack Obama May Get Support of Rivals on Guantánamo," Politico, May 22, 2009.

What to Do About Darfur

New York Review of Books, Volume 56, Number 11 · July 2, 2009

By Nicholas D. Kristof

Saviors and Survivors: Darfur, Politics, and the War on Terror
by Mahmood Mamdani

Pantheon, 398 pp., $26.95

Darfur and the Crime of Genocide
by John Hagan and Wenona Rymond-Richmond

Cambridge University Press, 269 pp., $85.00; $24.99 (paper)

The Translator: A Tribesman's Memoir of Darfur
by Daoud Hari, as told to Dennis Michael Burke and Megan M. McKenna

Random House, 207 pp., $23.00; $13.00 (paper)

Tears of the Desert: A Memoir of Survival in Darfur
by Halima Bashir, with Damien Lewis

One World/Ballantine, 316 pp., $25.00; $16.00 (paper)





The slaughter in Darfur has now lasted more than six years, longer than World War II, yet the "Save Darfur" movement has stalled—even as the plight of many Darfuris may be worsening. Many advocates for Darfur, myself included, had urged the International Criminal Court to prosecute the Sudanese president, Omar al-Bashir. We got what we hoped for—on March 4, the court issued an arrest warrant for Bashir on counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity. But the immediate result was that Bashir expelled thirteen foreign aid organizations and closed three domestic ones. Millions of Darfuris have been left largely without assistance, and some are already dying.

Looming in the background is the risk that war will reignite between north and south Sudan, and if that happens Darfur will be remembered simply as a mild prologue to an even bloodier war. The north and south are each accumulating weapons and preparing for a resumption of the civil war, which, between 1983 and 2005, killed two million people. South Sudan is scheduled to hold a referendum in 2011 to determine whether it will remain in Sudan or secede, and everybody knows that the southern Sudanese will vote overwhelmingly for separation if the present regime remains in power in Khartoum. But two thirds of Sudan's oil is in the south, and it is almost inconceivable that the north will accept the loss of this oil without a fight. If you believe that Sudan is so wretched that it can't get worse, just wait.



Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were among the leaders in the Senate calling for action on Darfur, yet since they have assumed executive power they have done very little about it. The reason is the same one that has always led American presidents to veer away from taking firm action on genocide—there is no neat, easy solution, major national interests are not at stake, and in the absence of an ideal policy it is always easier on any given day to defer a decision. There are also some signs that the Obama administration—in the form of its Sudan envoy, General Scott Gration, who grew up in East Africa but has no Sudan experience—prefers a softer approach toward Khartoum. As a presidential candidate, Obama sounded as if he were determined to do something about Sudan; since taking office, he has had no visible effect on the situation in Darfur.

Those concerned about Darfur are themselves divided. Some favor more aggressive measures and military tactics, such as a no-fly zone, while aid groups still active in Sudan fret that the result of such a policy would be an end to all relief work in Darfur. There is bickering about whether the ICC indictment of Bashir was a useful step to pressure Sudan, or a feel-good tactic that aggravates the suffering of Darfuris. Most advocates are convinced that the people of Darfur have been subject to genocide, while some, such as Human Rights Watch, prefer to avoid that term.

Did the Darfur movement lose its way? Does it know what it's doing? And what should be done next?

Mahmood Mamdani, an Africa specialist and professor of government at Columbia University, takes aim at the Darfur advocates in his new book, Saviors and Survivors: Darfur, Politics, and the War on Terror. It is a dyspeptic critique of the humanitarian movement at every level, and has won attention partly because of that view. Mamdani is also deeply critical of my own reporting about Darfur and regards my kind of journalism as a central part of the problem. He would certainly consider me to be the last person to provide a dispassionate examination of these issues or his book.

Mamdani, who grew up in Uganda and is of Indian extraction, has always been something of a provocateur. After September 11, he published a book, Good Muslim, Bad Muslim, which was more sympathetic to Osama bin Laden than most other books on the subject. He has been accused of serving as apologist for the extremist Hutus behind the Rwandan genocide, and he is also more understanding with respect to Robert Mugabe's brutal rule in Zimbabwe than most writers. His writing is infused with a tendency to indict European colonialism for inflaming tribal tensions and producing other disasters. That perspective also informs his central view of Darfur, as expressed in his final paragraph:

The Save Darfur lobby in the United States has turned the tragedy of the people of Darfur into a knife with which to slice Africa by demonizing one group of Africans, African Arabs.... At stake is also the independence of Africa. The Save Darfur lobby demands, above all else, justice, the right of the international community—really the big powers in the Security Council—to punish "failed" or "rogue" states, even if it be at the cost of more bloodshed and a diminished possibility of reconciliation. More than anything else, "the responsibility to protect" is a right to punish but without being held accountable—a clarion call for the recolonization of "failed" states in Africa. In its present form, the call for justice is really a slogan that masks a big power agenda to recolonize Africa.

There's no way to dress up that conclusion or the failure of Saviors and Survivors to present evidence that any Western power seeks to recolonize Sudan or the failed states in Africa. Ever since the Clinton administration fled Somalia, successive American administrations have studiously pretended not to notice failed states. Somalia has staggered on in chaos, and the US has even refused (wrongly) to have much to do with the tiny well-governed enclave of Somaliland, in the Horn of Africa, which has thrived despite a lack of foreign aid and is desperate for a Western embassy. The Central African Republic, to the southwest of Sudan, is a failed state in the making, but when I visited the country I found a single American diplomat in residence and a tiny UN presence; China is the diplomatic and business heavyweight there. Then there's Congo, the abyss in the heart of Africa and an important pawn in the cold war; in exploring that country's interior, I've met missionaries and diamond- buyers, warlords and UN peacekeepers, but never a US colonist of any kind.

So at a time when Western governments engage in Africa only when badgered by citizens pleading for humanitarian action—and even then do as little as they can get away with—it makes no sense for Mamdani to argue that the Save Darfur movement is some kind of conspiracy by the great powers to recolonize Africa. That is only one weakness in a tendentious book replete with factual mistakes, almost completely dependent on secondary sources, and all papered over with a tone of utter certainty.

To take one example, Mamdani writes that President George W. Bush declared in June 2004 that "the violence in Darfur region is clearly genocide," and then devotes a page in his book to showing that Secretary of State Colin Powell was "somewhat reluctant to fall in line." Mamdani claims that "soon after " Bush's finding, the State Department financed a study of mortality in Darfur, and suggests that all this shows discreditable political motives.

This sequence completely misunderstands what was going on in the United States government. The State Department financed the mortality study, before there was any finding of genocide, because it wanted information. Then Powell, after consultations with State Department legal scholars, was the first official to use the word "genocide"; and Bush was the last to do so. The quotation that Mamdani cites from Bush came in June 2005, not June 2004.

Likewise, he muddles UN Security Council resolution 1769 on Darfur, claiming that it passed a year before it did, and he incorrectly asserts that Darfur was a member of the League of Nations. Again: the most prominent Darfur leader is Abdel Wahid al-Nur, known universally as Abdel Wahid, yet somehow Mamdani mistakes his name by referring to him as Abdel al-Nur. A conversation with anyone familiar with Darfur would have caught such mistakes, but Mamdani doesn't seem to have fact-checked, conducted original research, consulted Arabic-language sources, or, most astonishingly, consulted many Darfuris themselves.

He says he made several trips to Sudan, but visits there are tightly constrained by the Humanitarian Aid Commission, run by Ahmed Haroun, who is under indictment by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. To get around in Darfur and to talk to displaced Darfuris, one needs permits issued by Haroun, or else one goes in illegally. I've paid drivers to sneak me in from Chad, and I've used fake IDs to get through checkpoints. (Well, not exactly fake IDs: after noticing that security officers couldn't read English, I put my frequent flyer membership cards on a lanyard as if they were UN passes, presented them at checkpoints, and was waved through.) It's not clear how Mamdani managed these obstacles in Sudan or whether he simply took propaganda tours, since he never describes his concrete experience there. He apparently did not go to neighboring Chad, the one place where it is possible to interview large numbers of Darfuris without political interference or risking punishment for them.

Mamdani seems to think that the Save Darfur movement was driven by neocons rather than liberals. He writes:

This mass student and evangelical movement does not seek to end the civil war in Darfur; rather, it calls for a military intervention in the civil war without bothering to address the likely consequences of that intervention. "Out of Iraq and into Darfur," says a common Save Darfur slogan. "Boots on the ground," says another. At best, Save Darfur was a romance driven by a feel-good search for instant remedies. At worst, it was a media-savvy political campaign designed to portray "Arabs" as race-intoxicated exterminators of "Africans."
The political dimension of Save Darfur is best understood in the context of the War on Terror. Because the crimes in Darfur are said to have been committed by "Arabs"—who have already been successfully demonized by the War on Terror—it has been easy to demonize these crimes as "genocide."

I never heard either of these supposedly "common" slogans, and a search of the Save Darfur Web site reveals not a single reference to the first phrase and references to the second only with regard to UN peacekeepers serving in Sudan with government consent. Some people, myself included, favor a no-fly zone that would keep government aircraft from killing people in Darfur, but I don't know of any serious Darfur activist who favors sending American "boots on the ground" into Darfur; that would create a nationalist backlash in Sudan.

As for Darfur being a front in the "war on terror," those active in the Darfur movement were mostly those same liberals who were denouncing abuses in the war on terror. Partly because the movement was worried about seeming judgmental of Arabs, it tended to say little about the fact that the slaughter was conducted by Sudanese Arabs. There have been much more frank acknowledgments of this element of the slaughter in the Arab news media, including al-Jazeera and the pan-Arab newspapers such as al-Sharq al-Awsat. As Lebanon's Daily Star declared:

For the entire Muslim and Arab world to remain silent when thousands of people in Darfur continue to be killed is shameful and hypocritical.

One of Mamdani's objections is that journalists and humanitarians focus so intently on atrocities that they provide no plausible account of the setting in which they occur. He denounces Philip Gourevitch's much-praised book on the Rwandan genocide— We Wish to Inform You That Tomorrow We Will Be Killed with Our Families —saying that it simplistically brands the Hutus as perpetrators and the Tutsis as victims. Then he issues a broader complaint:

This kind of journalism gives us a simple moral world, where a group of perpetrators faces a group of victims, but where neither history nor motivation is thinkable because the confrontation occurs outside history and context.

This is an objection that is often made about Darfur coverage, and it is true that there are many layers of complexity to Darfur that I am only beginning to uncover after ten visits to the region. For example, some of the Darfur rebel groups, from the "victim" tribes, have also engaged in atrocities; and many of the perpetrators busy killing blacks also look black to an American eye.

Yet every mass slaughter has had its complexities. Turks bitterly protest the designation of the 1915 killings of Armenians as genocide because the killings happened during a war and an uprising by Armenians. In the case of the Cambodian slaughter in the 1970s, the Khmer Rouge targeted people on the basis of education, urban background, or whim, but not for their race, religion, or nationality, so by a strict definition the savagery of Pol Pot is not genocide. In short, complexities always abound, and yet the central truth that resonates through history is that governments have targeted groups of people and slaughtered them.

Is Darfur a case of genocide? Mamdani disputes it, but he makes an elementary mistake in definition on the very first page of his introduction: "It is killing with intent to eliminate an entire group—a race, for example—that is genocide." On the contrary, neither the Genocide Convention of 1948 nor Raphael Lemkin, who coined the term "genocide," defined it to mean an attempt to eliminate an entire group. That was what the Nazis attempted to do to Jews, but the Turks were not determined to exterminate every last Armenian or the Serbs every last Bosnian. The Genocide Convention stipulates that it is enough if a group is targeted "in part."

Legal scholars disagree about whether Darfur qualifies as genocide, with most of the dispute turning on the question of the "intent" of the Sudanese government. I believe it is genocide, but whether this is the case, it's only one of several legitimate questions about Darfur. There are many reasonable criticisms one can make of some of the humanitarians and journalists involved. Alex de Waal, a Sudan expert and author with Julie Flint of the excellent book Darfur: A New History of a Long War,[1] has infuriated many Darfur advocates with his opposition to an ICC arrest warrant for President Bashir. But de Waal knows Sudan exceptionally well, and his blog and essays are read with respect as well as disagreement. Anybody who wants to get a well-informed critique of the Save Darfur movement would be better off reading de Waal than reading Mamdani's error-filled polemic.

A far better book than Mamdani's is Darfur and the Crime of Genocide, by John Hagan and Wenona Rymond-Richmond, scholars respectively at Northwestern University and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. They make excellent use of an important archive: interviews with more than one thousand Darfuris that were done as part of the study launched by the State Department in 2004. That archive provides a solid empirical basis for research, and the authors use it effectively to argue, for example, that racism against black Africans was more of a factor than many observers believe. They note that surveys found that between one quarter and one half of the tribes attacked heard racial epithets, including "This is the last day for blacks," "Kill all the blacks," "Kill all the slaves."

Hagan and Rymond-Richmond also explore at length the issue of mortality. They estimate that about 400,000 Sudanese have been killed; they have no doubt that it is genocide. They quote Jan Pfundheller, who had previously studied genocide in the former Yugoslavia and then conducted interviews of Darfuris, as saying: "What happened in Kosovo was evil. This is more vast and equally evil." The issue of the death toll is controversial, and Mamdani notes correctly that estimates differ widely. The truth is that we have no accurate idea how many people have died in Darfur, and we won't know until the government allows a careful mortality study—and even then there will be doubts. Rwanda is at peace and available for researchers, but estimates of the genocide there in 1994 still range from 500,000 to one million.

Darfuris are seen as actual people in Darfur and the Crime of Genocide, in a way that they are not in Mamdani's book, but they emerge most clearly in books by Darfuris themselves. Darfur is their story, and they are the ones best equipped to tell it. The first book of this genre is Daoud Hari's powerful The Translator: A Tribesman's Memoir of Darfur, by an extraordinarily courageous (and, somehow, humorous!) young man who interpreted for a number of journalists, including me. The second is Halima Bashir's Tears of the Desert, a luminous tale of growing up in rural Darfur, undergoing training to be a doctor amid a gathering storm of racism directed toward black people such as herself, and then trying to do her medical work even as the killings accelerate. Dr. Bashir's book is a wonderful and moving African memoir that deserves far more attention than it has received.

Dr. Bashir recounts how the Sudanese-sponsored Janjaweed militia—the group believed to be responsible for many of the killings in Darfur—attacked a girls' school in the remote village where she was posted at a rural clinic. She tried desperately to treat the dozens of girls who were raped, even though the only medicine she could offer them was half a pill each of acetaminophen. She writes:

At no stage in my years of study had I been taught how to deal with 8-year-old victims of gang rape in a rural clinic without enough sutures to go around.

Dr. Bashir disclosed the attack to United Nations investigators, so secret police kidnapped her, beat her, tortured her with knives, and gang-raped her. "Now you know what rape is, you black dog," one of the policemen told her. After reading Mamdani's heavily theoretical apologia, in which Darfuris barely make an appearance, Dr. Bashir's memoir is a useful reminder of what's at stake on the ground.

The attacks on Darfuri villages such as the one Dr. Bashir describes have subsided, partly because there are few black African villages left to attack; the rate of killings in Darfur has dropped. Moreover, France took action last year and led a European military force of 3,700 soldiers that moved into neighboring Chad and the Central African Republic. Sudan had previously dispatched fighters to raid both countries, so that in the past they were the scene of murders and rapes of people because of their race and tribe, just as in Darfur. The European force, which in March passed responsibility to a UN force, has stabilized that crisis and reduced the chance that Chad and the Central African Republic will collapse, so in some respects there is a lull right now. But it won't last. The expulsion of aid workers, if it is not reversed, will lead to the deaths of countless displaced Darfuris from disease and malnutrition, and the war between north and south Sudan may well break out again in the next two years.

What then is to be done? That question has bedeviled and divided Darfur advocates for years, and there is no simple answer. Yet groups like Save Darfur, the Enough Project, and the Genocide Intervention Network have pointed to steps that will help. Here are six that I believe would increase the prospect of a solution:

• Bring together members of Darfuri civil society—doctors, educators, leaders, and businesspeople among them—to form a common negotiating platform, so that there can be constructive peace talks (since the most plausible path to a solution is a negotiated peace agreement). A prominent Sudanese tycoon and philanthropist, Mo Ibrahim, is now pushing this approach in a project called Mandate Darfur. Sudan's government blocked the Mandate Darfur peace talks this spring, with barely a murmur of protest from around the world, and it's crucial that international pressure be focused on Khartoum to allow this initiative to proceed. This may be Sudan's best hope.
• Apply pressure on the Sudanese government to make concessions so that such a negotiated deal is more likely, while also putting pressure on Abdel Wahid and the rebels. One of the basic problems is that the international community hasn't applied credible sticks or carrots to Khartoum. Carrots are difficult politically, but we can do more with sanctions (especially, going after the wealth of the Sudanese leaders in foreign banks), with international pressure from Arab countries (here Qatar has been helpful), and with military measures.
• These military measures can include a no-fly zone. This doesn't mean shooting any planes out of the air. Rather, when a Sudanese military aircraft bombs civilians in defiance of the UN ban on offensive military flights, Western forces can destroy a Sudanese fighter plane or helicopter gunship on the ground a few days later. For this purpose, the US could use aircraft from its military base in Djibouti, and France could use aircraft at its base in Abeché, in Chad. In a classified memo to the White House last year, the special envoy for Sudan, Ambassador Richard Williamson, also outlined other possible military measures, including jamming all telephones, radio signals, and television signals in Khartoum.
• Nudge China into suspending arms deliveries to Sudan. This would terrify the Khartoum regime, at a time when it is arming for renewed war with the south, for China is its main arms supplier and trainer of its military pilots. China won't suspend its oil purchases from Sudan, but it is conceivable that China would suspend military sales (which yield modest sums for China relative to the cost to its image).
• Encourage some elements in the official Sudanese leadership to overthrow President Bashir, by suggesting that if this happens and they take steps to end the violence in Darfur, the US will normalize relations with Sudan. The other leaders will not be indicted by the ICC, so if they remove Bashir they can remove the albatross from Sudan's neck. These other leaders also have blood on their hands, but they are far better than Bashir.
• Give a signal that the US has no objection to its allies selling anti-aircraft missiles to south Sudan (that is easier than providing the missiles ourselves). This would deny Khartoum air control over the south, and thus reduce the chance that the north will attack the south and revive the north–south civil war.

Samantha Power, now a national security official, wrote a superb, Pulitzer Prize–winning history of genocide, noting that time and again the United States refused to intervene in genocides even though it knew more or less what was going on. She titled her book A Problem from Hell,[2] and that's what Darfur is. But there have been other problems from hell, including Kosovo and Bosnia, that have been, if not solved, at least hugely mitigated. The lesson from places like Kosovo is that the most urgent need is less for sophisticated technical solutions than for political will to face the problem squarely. It's too early to know whether President Obama will do this, but at the moment I'm not optimistic.

To some extent, that's a reflection on the Save Darfur movement and on scribblers like myself who took up the Darfuri cause. We have failed to foster the political will to bring about change. For all our efforts, the situation on the ground may soon become worse. A "Darfur fatigue" has set in, and the movement has lost its steam. And of course the movement was always compromised by its own shortcomings, from infighting to naiveté to the ubiquitous penchant of advocacy groups for exaggeration.

Yet another perspective is also possible. As I write, I'm on a plane flying back from Washington State, where I spoke to a university audience about human rights issues, including Darfur. For all the failures, there is something inspiring about how hundreds of thousands of university students around America have marched, fasted, and donated money on behalf of people of a different race and religion who live halfway around the world, in a land they had never heard of five years ago, and who rarely appear on their television screens. Moreover, the movement is far from a complete failure. Those protests and "Save Darfur" lawn signs prompted a vast relief effort that is keeping millions alive in Sudan, Chad, and the Central African Republic. The movement has also projected a spotlight that has restrained the Sudanese government from undertaking even harsher actions it itches for, such as dismantling the vast Kalma camp for displaced Darfuris. For all the failures, hundreds of thousands of people are alive today because of those students, those churches and synagogues, and that's not a shabby legacy.

June 3, 2009

Notes

[1]Zed Books, 2006; see my review in these pages, February 9, 2006.

[2]Basic Books, 2002; reviewed by Brian Urquhart in these pages, April 25, 2002.

Q&A With Kenneth Roth on Closing Guantánamo

Source - http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/65105

KENNETH ROTH is Executive Director of Human Rights Watch.

Michael Herb: Will closing Guantánamo really solve more problems than it is currently creating? Why is it necessary to close a prison that effectively does its job in keeping those who threaten the United States off the battlefield and out of the country?

Doug Bedell: What will moving prisoners actually solve? Are there estimates on the additional costs that will be incurred to transfer and house the prisoners?

Nikhil Jones: What does the planned closing mean for the current detainees at Guantánamo?

A: Closing Guantánamo is not simply about shutting a detention facility. It is about ending the use of long-term detention without trial -- as well as torture and other forms of coercive interrogation. Such abuse has lost the United States the moral high ground in the fight against terrorism. This is dangerous: it discourages the international cooperation that is essential for disrupting clandestine terrorist networks while providing recruiters for al Qaeda and its ilk with a bonanza of material to build rage among the next generation of terrorists.

The current Guantánamo detainees should be prosecuted -- in regular courts, not substandard military commissions -- or released. Of the roughly 240 detainees, even the Bush administration found that some 50 posed no danger; the only sticking point was finding a country to accept them, since they risked torture or worse if returned to their countries of origin. Up to 100 others are Yemenis whom the Bush administration was also negotiating to return to Yemen or neighboring Saudi Arabia if the proper security guarantees could be put in place. The Obama administration is continuing efforts to transfer these detainees.

That leaves some 80 to 100 more difficult cases. Those who actually plotted terrorist activity should be prosecuted in regular federal courts, which have a long history of successfully prosecuting terrorism cases -- far more successful than the compromised military commissions. To convict someone of conspiracy to commit terrorism takes very little: proof of a criminal agreement between two or more people and a single step, no matter how innocuous, to advance the plot. Those convicted can be held in such detention facilities as the super-maximum security prison in Florence, Colorado, where big-time drug traffickers and other extraordinarily dangerous people are kept and from which no one has ever escaped.

However, if the U.S. government cannot muster even that modest level of proof, it should release the detainees, who have been held without trial long enough. That involves some risk, but the world is full of dangerous young men, only a tiny fraction of whom are in Guantánamo. The sense of injustice caused by continuing Guantánamo is likely to generate far more terrorists than the handful who otherwise would continue to be held without trial were Guantánamo to continue in operation.


Vince Larson: Has Obama essentially created a loophole for continuing to hold some detainees without trial by suggesting that there is a group of detainees who cannot be prosecuted but continue to pose a danger to the United States? Will such a policy create a Guantánamo by another name?

A: Yes and yes. Obama believes there are some detainees at Guantánamo who cannot be convicted but are too dangerous to release. Without seeing the files, we cannot know how big a problem that is. But to continue to detain them without trial would be to maintain the essence of Guantánamo, even if their place of detention were to be moved onshore. As noted above, their detention is unlikely to make us safer, since there is a good chance that it would generate more terrorists than it disables.

Tom: The courts have held that the writ of habeas corpus, which prevents illegal detention, extends to Guantánamo. Does it not then follow that the Suspension Clause, which allows for habeas corpus to be suspended in the case of invasion or threat to public safety, is also applicable in Guantánamo?

A: The Suspension Clause of the U.S. Constitution says that the writ of habeas corpus cannot be suspended "unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it." Because there has been no rebellion or invasion of the United States, there are no grounds for suspending habeas corpus in Guantánamo or anywhere else.

Greg R. Lawson: Even with the closure of Guantánamo, the United States is likely to continue practicing "extraordinary rendition" for those who are perceived to be high-value targets. Will this actually result in worse outcomes for those captured than simply leaving Guantánamo open?

Also, do you agree that despite some symbolic gestures from the Obama administration, the president is maintaining the majority of the detainee policies from George W. Bush's second term?

A: The Obama administration has said that it will stop using rendition to torture -- that it will send people only to governments that do not torture or mistreat suspects and will offer them fair-trial rights. That is a major departure from the Bush administration. However, the Obama administration may still fall short of its international obligations if, as CIA Director Leon Panetta has suggested, it sends suspects to countries that have a regular practice of torture so long as they provide flimsy diplomatic assurances that suspects will not be mistreated. Needless to say, governments that routinely flout their legal responsibility not to torture cannot be expected to respect a mere diplomatic promise. And monitoring individual cases is virtually impossible, because prisoners who have been tortured often won't report that fact for fear of being returned to the torture chamber in retaliation.

As for whether Obama is simply perpetuating Bush's detainee policies, I have been disappointed with certain aspects of Obama's response but still see major differences from Bush. For example, Obama insisted that the CIA abide by the army's very good, post-Abu Ghraib interrogation standards; Bush had vetoed a bill that would have required this. Obama closed Bush's secret CIA detention facilities, where detainees "disappeared" and were subject to torture. That said, some of Obama's reforms are more superficial. He is continuing Bush's use of military commissions, albeit after adopting policies that make it harder to use evidence derived from some but not all forms of coercion. While promising to close Guantánamo, he is threatening to continue its essence by still detaining people without charge or trial.

Laurence Shoup: What about the detention facility at Bagram Air Base, in Afghanistan? Is this not just another Gitmo? And is Obama expanding Bagram?

A: Bagram is just like Guantánamo insofar as the detainees come from outside of Afghanistan, but to date that accounts for only a small number of the detainees there. I would strongly oppose any effort to move more such detainees to Bagram - that, indeed, would create a Guantánamo II -- but so far that hasn't happened.

It was disappointing that the Obama administration opposed granting the writ of habeas corpus to three detainees who had been brought to Bagram from abroad, since they are in the same position as the Guantánamo detainees. However, most of the 600 or so detainees at Bagram were picked up in Afghanistan. The Afghan government has a responsibility to prosecute them, as Afghan law does not allow detention without trial. Unfortunately, the Afghan judicial system is corrupt, barely functional, and in desperate need of assistance from the United States and other NATO countries. In the meantime, detainees should at least be notified of the basis for their detention, have access to a lawyer, and be able to challenge their detention before an independent adjudicator. That is not happening now.

Russell Gillespie: There has been considerable scholarly debate as to whether coercive interrogation actually produces actionable intelligence. Is there a danger that these cases overwhelm our traditional capacity to address the threat, from both legal and intelligence perspectives?

A: People facing torture often blurt out whatever they think the torturer wants to hear. Sometimes it is the truth, sometimes not. Moreover, torturers tend to try to produce information that they think their superiors want. For example, Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi claimed under torture in 2002 that Saddam Hussein had provided training in chemical and biological weapons to al Qaeda. That, of course, was false, but Colin Powell used this "evidence" in his infamous presentation to the UN Security Council in February 2003 as a powerful reason for going to war.

Given the Bush administration's record, one should wonder how actionable any intelligence it received from torture really was. If it had to subject alleged 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed to 183 waterboarding sessions, one has to question the timeliness of such information and whether he even ever gave up the most valuable intelligence that he might have possessed.

And there is a cost. Torture and other forms of coercive interrogation are jeopardizing the United States' ability to keep terrorism suspects off the street for the long term. If the Bush administration's use of torture ends up undermining criminal prosecutions, it may mean that the U.S. government can detain certain suspects only so long as it is willing to bear the considerable political and security costs of detaining people for years without trial. It would have been far better to have proceeded with prosecutions and secured lengthy prison terms that all would consider legitimate.

One other point: the claim by former Vice President Dick Cheney and others that his "enhanced interrogation techniques" made us safer needs to be scrutinized. Many people with knowledge of the program are skeptical of Cheney's claim, but for now it constitutes an alternative perspective. Until that perspective is definitively repudiated by a respected nonpartisan truth commission similar to the 9/11 Commission, there is a risk that a future president will resort to such illegal, immoral, and counterproductive techniques in the face of a future security threat, and that Obama will be criticized for not having used them in the event of a major terrorism attack during his term in office.

Lisa Ellison: Is Congress's refusal to provide funding for Obama's plan to close Guantánamo and move some detainees to the United States a purely political calculation, or are there indeed some important practical considerations that make Obama's plan as currently articulated difficult to implement?

A: Congress's not-in-my-backyard attitude strikes me as the worst form of demagoguery and irresponsibility. As noted, Guantánamo detainees moved to the United States for prosecution or even detention without trial would almost certainly be detained at super-maximum security detention facilities such as the federal facility at Florence, Colorado, from which no one has ever escaped. Locals have talked about fears of their community becoming a target, but that's silly: Why would terrorists target obscure places such as Florence rather than high-profile cities where their actions would have the most damaging effect?

Then there's the separate issue of the 50 or so detainees who even the Bush administration said should be released but who can't be repatriated to their countries of origin for fear of torture or even death. The 17 Uighurs -- Muslims of western China's Xinjiang province -- are prime examples. The Obama administration is trying to convince various allies to resettle the majority of these detainees, but allies are unlikely to bear that political price without the U.S. government doing the same. These detainees should never have been held in the first place. It is in everyone's interest to get them out of Guantánamo as soon as possible. Congress's narrow-minded obstructionism is making that much more difficult.

Matt: What challenges does the president's plan to close Guantánamo pose for allies of the United States, particularly those who were fiercely critical of the previous administration's policy of detaining terrorism suspects offshore? What pressure is there for them to now step forward and help resettle detainees?

Edward Michaelson: Where and how should the United States aim to resettle the detainees currently held in Guantánamo? Should they be returned to their countries of origin or transferred to a third country, even though none seems to be particularly receptive? Do all these difficulties suggest most will end up in the United States?

A: Most of the detainees will not end up in the United States. As noted above, of the roughly 240 Guantánamo detainees, up to 100 are likely to be returned to Yemen or Saudi Arabia once proper security guarantees (and financial payments) can be worked out. Some 50 who have been found to present no danger will mostly be resettled in allied countries so long as the United States resettles some at home -- perhaps the Uighurs, given the existence of a significant Uighur community in the United States to help with resettlement. And while China has threatened other governments with retaliation for taking the Uighurs -- it wants to detain them and probably severely mistreat them -- it is unlikely to take action against the United States.

Finally, as for the 80 to 100 detainees who are believed to be dangerous, those who are prosecuted will most likely be detained in super-maximum security detention facilities in the United States. As for those, if any, who cannot be prosecuted, they would best be returned to their countries of origin (assuming no risk of torture) but will likely be held in the United States if the Obama administration goes forward with its misguided plans to continue the Bush practice of long-term detention without trial.

Jesse Sanders: Can the United States follow the example of Singapore, which "de-programs" more extreme Islamic radicals with training led by moderate imams who explain that the Koran does not support killing and terrorism, and that such behavior is not endorsed or recognized in any way by moderate Muslims? Singapore has released these prisoners, and very few have returned to their former behavior. Would it be possible to similarly change the mission of Guantánamo and other detention facilities?

A: Saudi Arabia also has a program like that, which I have visited. The U.S. government is quite interested in a version of it, especially for the Yemeni detainees it wants to repatriate, but this would be located in Yemen or Saudi Arabia, not in the United States. As for detainees who have committed serious terrorism crimes, or even conspired to do so, I would prefer to see them prosecuted. But if some cannot be prosecuted, such a program, leading to release with safeguards to prevent arbitrary indefinite detention, would be preferable to the political and security costs of prolonged detention without trial. However, the Saudi program does have problems. Detainees are locked up, at least initially; there is no recourse to judicial review through habeas corpus or some other mechanism; and while the vast majority of those sent to "rehab" were released within a few months, that could change if fears of recidivism grow.