May 1, 2011

Is Dislike of SBY Driving Military Old Guard to Hard-Liners?

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, President of Indones...Image via WikipediaNivell Rayda | May 02, 2011

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s speeches often leave many Indonesians mystified, and the one he made shortly after a series of book bomb scares across the capital last month was no exception.

“To that group, [I say] if you don’t like me, don’t sacrifice the people. Don’t let them become victims,” he said on March 18, shortly after police discovered a fourth bomb sent to the house of a prominent music mogul.

To some, the president appeared presumptuous for assuming that he was the target, but Mufti Makaarim, executive director of the Institute for Defense, Security and Peace Studies, thinks that there is more to the remark than meets the eye.

“He knows that there are some people who benefit from religious violence and acts of terrorism. He senses that there are a few retired generals who would love to see him lose legitimacy to run this country,” he said. “For me the speech was clear. As vague and intriguing as it may seem to the rest of the nation, he was addressing military retirees.”

Connecting the Dots

Two other incidents that took place shortly after that speech seemed to crystallize what Yudhoyono meant.

On March 20, a little-known Islamic political analyst named Wachiduddin received thunderous applause from an audience of 500 veiled women and bearded men at a talk show organized by Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia, a hard-line group that seeks the formation of an Islamic caliphate.

Wachiduddin on that day said that it was important for hard-line Muslim activists to establish ties with warmongers and military officials. Excerpts and video recordings of the show have been circulating online since.

“Gaining support from ahlul quwwah [bearers of military might] in a revolution is a method exemplified by the great prophet, Muhammad,” he said. “The prophet and his disciples once convened with ahlul quwwahs throughout Mecca, asking them to convert to Islam and join his holy struggle.”

Muhammad eventually gained the support of Sa’ad bin Muaz, a prominent seventh-century warlord from Medina, Saudi Arabia, the self-proclaimed expert added. “Muslim activists [in Indonesia] must visit these generals. We must convince them that Islam is the only system blessed by Allah. Generals must become the 21st century Sa’ad bin Muaz,” Wachiduddin said.

On March 22, two days after the speech, Al Jazeera reported that “senior retired generals” were supporting the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) and other hard-liners to incite religious violence and overthrow Yudhoyono.

The report included an interview with retired Army Chief Gen. Tyasno Sudarto, a staunch government critic who acknowledged his support for the groups that he said aimed to topple Yudhoyono in a “revolution.”

Coming Out

Besides Tyasno, there are more military men backing the hard-liners, according to Chep Hernawan, head of the Islamic Reform Movement (Garis). In an interview with the Jakarta Globe, he identified them as retired Maj. Gen. Muchdi Purwoprandjono, former commander of the Army’s Special Forces (Kopassus); retired Maj. Gen. Kivlan Zen, former commander of the Army’s Strategic Reserve Command (Kostrad); and retired Gen. Fahrul Razi, a former deputy chief of staff.

Chep said several meetings had already taken place since January between the ex-generals and conservative Muslim leaders to discuss their plans.

“We’re united by the Ahmadiyah issue, since these retired generals have also lost faith in how the president is managing the country. They are Muslims too and know very well that Yudhoyono’s hesitance in banning Ahmadiyah could spark public anger, particularly from Muslims,” Chep said.

He was referring to the minority sect deemed deviant by mainstream Muslims that has faced increasing persecution over the years, including from the state.

Islamic People’s Forum (FUI) secretary general Muhammad Al Khaththath had also acknowledged its movement to seek the dissolution of the sect was supported by retired generals but refused to divulge details into what sort of arrangements the hard-liners had with the generals.

‘Awan Merah’

A source inside the military retiree circle told the Jakarta Globe that the hard-liners had benefited financially as well as politically from the relationship.

“These generals always finance pesantrens [Islamic religious boarding school] and madrasahs [Islamic schools] owned by hard-line figures. Their houses are always visited by hard-line groups and some return with plenty of donations,” the source said on condition of anonymity.

“In return they pledge allegiance and consider these generals as their patrons. [Hard-liners] are often exploited for a certain political gain.”

But the source said that the retired generals had a more sinister plot. “The other retirees are calling their actions ‘Awan Merah’ [Red Cloud], short for ‘Aksi Purnawirawan Militer Berdarah’ [Bloody Actions of Military Retirees],” he told the Globe.

“Their aim was to create another religious conflict like the ones in Ambon [North Maluku] or Poso [Central Sulawesi]. But this time, they want it to be close to the capital. It is likely that their target would be Kuningan or Parung.”

Around 2,000 followers of the Ahmadiyah faith live in Manis Lor village in Kuningan district, West Java, making it the largest Ahmadi community in Indonesia. An attack on the community occurs almost every year.

Parung, a small town about halfway between Jakarta and Bogor, is home to an Ahmadiyah center. It was last attacked in 2008.

“Other retirees are not too sure about their strategies. Toppling a president is not that easy,” the source said. “But what these generals have in common is that they all hate SBY, they’re devout Muslims or what some would describe as ‘green generals,’ they have close ties with hard-liners and in the past they had their hands dirty in cases of religious violence.”

Mufti of the IDSPS said the retired generals were discontented with Yudhoyono because he had failed to provide enough political positions for members of his former corps.

Only two retired generals sit in Yudhoyono’s administration: State Secretary Sudi Silalahi and Deputy Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsuddin.

“The aim is to topple Yudhoyono through de-legitimization of his rule, to show that civilian-controlled government is failing and that we should go back to military rule,” he told the Globe. “That has happened during the administrations of [former presidents] [B.J.] Habibie and Gus Dur [Abdurrahman Wahid].”

Mutual Interests

Muchdi, the retired major general, has confirmed that he has close relationships with hard-line Muslim figures. “I have friends from almost every Muslim organization and yes, some of them are radicals,” he told the Globe.

He was cautious, however, about revealing the extent of those ties with radicals. “All I can say is that these [hard-liners] don’t have a political vehicle to channel their aspirations. They just want their voices heard by the government,” he said.

“I don’t agree with violence and every Muslim organization that I have talked to feels the same way. There is not a single political party that can facilitate their needs, that is why some rogue elements within the organizations feel frustrated and do [violent] things.”

Muchdi, the former head of the National Intelligence Agency (BIN) who was controversially acquitted in 2009 of the murder of rights activist Munir Said Thalib, has also been cited as a senior adviser of FUI publication Suara Islam and of Media Dakwah, a publication tied to the Indonesian Islam Propagation Council (DDII).

Although he is open about opposing the existence of the Ahmadiyah, he denied playing a part in religious violence.

“After the cases in Cikeusik [Banten] and Temanggung happened, text messages began circulating saying that me and Tyasno Sudarto were behind the melees,” he said, referring to a mob attack on Ahmadis in Banten that left three sect members dead and the violent riot in the West Java town after a blasphemy trial.

“To me, rumors like that happen almost on a daily basis. Some issues we have to fight back but some I chose to ignore. I don’t know why, but people see me as a hard-line Muslim myself.”

A long time critic of Yudhoyono, Tyasno has been participating in various rallies and activities to oust the president. His disapproval for his former classmate in the military academy had led him to form an unlikely bond with radical Muslims, secular nationalists and other groups frustrated with the sitting administration.

In March 2010, Tyasno joined hard-line Muslim activists in an event organized by HTI to denounce the growing economic influence of the United States in Indonesia.

The retired Army chief did little to hide his alliance with hard-line groups during the interview with Al Jazeera.

“We work together to enlighten each other. Our angle is different. They fight in the name of Islam, we use national politics. But we have a common goal, which is change. We want to save our country, not destroy it. The revolution should be peaceful, not anarchist or bloody,” he said.

Al Jazeera cited a Web site that detailed a proposed cabinet line-up for the so-called Islamic government — which included Tyasno — drafted by FUI’s Al Khaththath, himself a member of the HTI and former chairman.

Like Muchdi, Kivlan denied sponsoring religious violence and suggested Muslim groups channel their resentment toward the Ahmadiyah in a court of law.

“For me, the solution is simple. Launch a legal action [against the sect]. The same with Ahmadiyah, if they feel intimidated, report it. Don’t take this problem to the street … let the court decide. Only then will all problems be solved,” he told reporters after his name circulated as a mastermind of attacks against members of the sect.

Old Ties

But despite the denials, it is hard not to question how hardliners have continued to enjoy impunity without the presence of political support from powerful figures.

In February, hard-line groups began demanding that Yudhoyono step down unless he issued a decree banning the Ahmadiyah, just days after the president announced plans to disband organizations that used violence to further their goals.

“The fact that the government is reluctant to dissolve hard-line groups suggests that these organizations have support from powerful people. He wouldn’t even touch HTI, which is clearly trying to establish an Islamic state and replace our national ideology. That’s treason,” human rights activist and noted military critic Usman Hamid told the Globe.

In 1965, the military began establishing close ties with Muslim groups in order to fight communists. It is widely estimated that close to a million people were killed in an ensuing witch hunt for Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) supporters.

During the Suharto regime, the military maintained the relationships, including with former elements of the Darul Islam and the Islamic Troops of Indonesia (TII), which launched a widespread rebellion during the Sukarno era in a failed attempt to establish a theocracy.

The military allegedly capitalized on the relationships during the final days of Suharto’s 32-year regime by inciting hatred toward the Chinese ethnic minority through rumors that they had caused the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. A widespread riot occurred in May 1998, targeting Chinese businesses and homes.

After the fall of Suharto, the ethnic violence spread throughout the islands of Java, Borneo, Sulawesi and the Malukus.

Witnesses detected a similar pattern in the seemingly separate conflicts and reported the presence of unidentified men provoking an attack on other religious groups. “What we are seeing today is a re-establishment of old ties. There is a good chance that similar conflicts would occur again,” Usman said.

In a recent interview with the Globe, Mahmudi Haryono, alias Yusuf, a former terrorism convict who once participated in religious violence in Poso, said that the best possible way to disrupt national stability in Indonesia would be to incite another violent religious conflict.

“There are thousands of us who ‘graduated’ from Moro, Poso and Ambon. This is a time of peace so most of us just carry on with our daily lives. But when there is another conflict, they would leave their job and everything they have and fight. A lot of people that I know feel that way,” he said.

“I realized, even back then, that the jihadist movement has been exploited by political power to destabilize the government. But blind faith and the notion that Muslims are under attack can prompt radical Muslims to do just about anything.”
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Moves to Undermine Egyptian Revolution

Egypt: GizehImage by Brooklyn Museum via FlickrBy Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa Al-Omrani

CAIRO, May 1, 2011 (IPS) - More than two months since former president Hosni Mubarak was forced from office after 30 years in power, local political figures and analysts warn of "counterrevolutionary elements" still working behind the scenes to thwart Egypt's ongoing transition to democracy.

"These elements have consistently worked to reverse the gains made by the Jan. 25 Revolution by sowing fear, chaos and fitna (discord) between different segments of society," Essam al-Arian, spokesman for Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood movement, told IPS.

In the first days of the 18-day uprising, the embattled Mubarak regime used its expansive state media machine to spread false news reports of murder and mayhem in hopes of terrorising the public and discrediting the revolution. It went so far at one point as to release convicted criminals from prison.

Mubarak, who relinquished executive power to Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) in February, is now under house arrest, while his ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) has since been dissolved. Nevertheless, many political observers point to "remnants of the former regime" still actively working to maintain the Mubarka-era status quo.

"The counterrevolution is directed by regime holdovers, including security elements and hired thugs, along with certain politically-connected businessmen," Diaa Rashwan, assistant director of the Cairo- based Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, told IPS.

In an effort to destroy the national unity that had been an essential ingredient of the revolution's success, these elements - with help from the media - have tried to instigate sectarian conflict, say observers, especially between Egypt's Muslim majority and Christian minority.

On Mar. 4, for example, certain newspapers reported that several Christians had been killed after a church in the Atfeeh district south of Cairo was torched by a group of Muslims. Although the reports later turned out to be wildly exaggerated, they nevertheless resulted in violent clashes in which 13 people were killed - both Christians and Muslims - and scores injured.

"Media reports about the Atfeeh church incident were based on rumour and exaggeration intended to stoke sectarian conflict," Ammar Ali Hassan, director of the Cairo-based Centre for Middle East Studies, was quoted as saying in the local press. Hassan went on to accuse elements of Mubarak's now- dissolved State Security apparatus of being behind the incident.

Even before its demise, the Mubarak regime had long been suspected of instigating sectarian conflict for its own political ends. In the first week of February, information emerged suggesting that State Security had played a role in the bombing of a church in Alexandria last New Year’s Eve. At the time, regime officials had blamed the attack - in which 24 people were killed - first on "Al-Qaeda" and then on Palestinian groups.

Recent weeks have also seen an unprecedented rash of attacks on religious shrines revered by Egypt's Sufi Muslim community.

Although certain newspapers hastened to blame the attacks on Egypt's ultra-conservative Salafist movement, little if any evidence has been produced to this effect. Salafist leaders, meanwhile, strenuously deny involvement in the attacks and accuse the media of trying to fan the flames of conflict between the two sects.

"These crimes were not committed by Salafists, but rather by counterrevolutionary elements," prominent Salafist preacher Mohamed Hassan publicly charged on Apr. 20.

Magdi Hussein, secretary-general of the Islamist Labour Party (who is not himself a Salafist), pointed in particular to one recent attack on a Sufi shrine in the city of Qalioub north of Cairo. "Although the attack was widely attributed in the media to Salafists, subsequent police investigations found that the perpetrators were hired thugs with no religious affiliations," Hussein told IPS.

Even an official security source quoted earlier this month by IPS conceded that authorities could not rule out involvement in the attacks by "counterrevolutionary forces seeking to heighten sectarian tensions between Sufis and Salafists."

Observers have been quick to highlight the central role played by the local news media in exacerbating sectarian tensions.

"The counterrevolution is being aided by certain segments of the news media, which have been caught publishing false and potentially damaging reports on more than one occasion," said al-Arian.

Rashwan agreed, noting that "much of the news currently being reported by the local press on sectarian issues is based on rumour, innuendo and exaggeration." This state of affairs, he added, "has led many Egyptian commentators to accuse particular newspapers of promoting a counterrevolutionary agenda."

Independent political activist Abdelrahman Abu Zeid pointed to two prominent independent dailies, Al- Masry Al-Youm and Al-Youm Al-Saabaa, in particular. "Both papers, owned by business interests known for their closeness to the former regime, have actively contributed to recent incidents of sectarian unrest by twisting and exaggerating the facts," Abu Zeid told IPS.

Al-Masry Al-Youm is owned by a handful of prominent businessmen, including Sallah Diab and Coptic- Christian billionaire Naguib Sawiris. Al-Youm Al-Sabaa's chief stakeholder, meanwhile, is the son of former NDP secretary-general Safwat Sherif.

Some political figures have also asserted that Egypt's counterrevolution was being aided by Israel, which had publicly described the Mubarak regime as a "strategic treasure."

In mid-April, Grand Sheikh of Al-Azhar Ahmed al-Tayeb, Egypt's leading religious authority, while visiting the district of Atfeeh, said: "The sectarian disturbances that happened here last month are the work of the Zionist state, which wants to break the region into small, ethnically-based statelets."

Hussein agreed for the most part, saying that, "along with remnants of the former regime, the counterrevolution also involves U.S. and Zionist elements." He added: "After the fall of their chief agents in the region - Egypt's Mubarak and Tunisia's Ben Ali - religious discord now represents their primary means of influencing events on the ground."

But according to al-Arian, such attempts to sow discord in post-revolutionary Egypt are destined to fail, "due to a new political awareness on the part of the public and the solidarity between all segments of the Egyptian people."

"The counterrevolution has already started to wane with the impending prosecution of Mubarak and his henchmen," said Hussein. "And with the democratic election of a new parliament and president, it can be expected to die out completely."

Egypt is scheduled to hold its first free parliamentary elections in September, to be followed by presidential elections shortly afterward.

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Running in the red: How the U.S., on the road to surplus, detoured to massive debt

George W. BushCover of George W. BushBy Lori Montgomery, Published: April 30

The nation’s unnerving descent into debt began a decade ago with a choice, not a crisis.

In January 2001, with the budget balanced and clear sailing ahead, the Congressional Budget Office forecast ever-larger annual surpluses indefinitely. The outlook was so rosy, the CBO said, that Washington would have enough money by the end of the decade to pay off everything it owed.


Graphic


From surplus to debt


Video


Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner discusses the U.S. budget deficit. Geithner, speaking with Peter Cook on Bloomberg Television's ‘’In the Loop,’’ also discusses banking regulation and the European debt crisis. (April 19)

Voices of caution were swept aside in the rush to take advantage of the apparent bounty. Political leaders chose to cut taxes, jack up spending and, for the first time in U.S. history, wage two wars solely with borrowed funds. “In the end, the floodgates opened,” said former senator Pete Domenici (R-N.M.), who chaired the Senate Budget Committee when the first tax-cut bill hit Capitol Hill in early 2001.

Now, instead of tending a nest egg of more than $2 trillion, the federal government expects to owe more than $10 trillion to outside investors by the end of this year. The national debt is larger, as a percentage of the economy, than at any time in U.S. history except for the period shortly after World War II.

Polls show that a large majority of Americans blame wasteful or unnecessary federal programs for the nation’s budget problems. But routine increases in defense and domestic spending account for only about 15 percent of the financial deterioration, according to a new analysis of CBO data.

The biggest culprit, by far, has been an erosion of tax revenue triggered largely by two recessions and multiple rounds of tax cuts. Together, the economy and the tax bills enacted under former president George W. Bush, and to a lesser extent by President Obama, wiped out $6.3 trillion in anticipated revenue. That’s nearly half of the $12.7 trillion swing from projected surpluses to real debt. Federal tax collections now stand at their lowest level as a percentage of the economy in 60 years.

Big-ticket spending initiated by the Bush administration accounts for 12 percent of the shift. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars have added $1.3 trillion in new borrowing. A new prescription drug benefit for Medicare recipients contributed another $272 billion. The Troubled Assets Relief Program bank bailout, which infuriated voters and led to the defeat of several legislators in 2010, added just $16 billion — and TARP may eventually cost nothing as financial institutions repay the Treasury.

Obama’s 2009 economic stimulus, a favorite target of Republicans who blame Democrats for the mounting debt, has added $719 billion — 6 percent of the total shift, according to the new analysis of CBO data by the nonprofit Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative. All told, Obama-era choices account for about $1.7 trillion in new debt, according to a separate Washington Post analysis of CBO data over the past decade. Bush-era policies, meanwhile, account for more than $7 trillion and are a major contributor to the trillion-dollar annual budget deficits that are dominating the political debate.

As Congress prepares this week to launch a high-stakes battle over whether to raise the legal limit on borrowing, the analyses offer a clearer view of the drivers of the debt — and of the difficulty of re-balancing the budget without new tax revenue.

Most Republicans reject raising taxes as part of the solution; House Speaker John A. Boehner (Ohio) has called it a “non-starter.” But Democrats won’t go for a proposal based solely on spending cuts. The“Gang of Six,” a bipartisan Senate group dedicated to debt reduction, is expected to unveil a strategy as soon as this week that couples sharp spending cuts with a rewrite of the tax code that would raise additional revenue.

(The debt ceiling, set at $14.3 trillion, covers all federal debt, including money the Treasury owes other federal entities, such as the Social Security trust fund. The CBO data focus on the portion of the debt borrowed from outside investors. The debt is the accumulation of annual deficits; if annual budgets are in surplus, the nation can pay down the debt.)

From surplus to debt

The annual surpluses that set the nation on this course emerged in the final years of the Clinton administration. In the typical American household, a surplus comes as welcome news. But the White House is not a typical household. When Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin saw the budget shift into the black in 1998, he immediately warned President Bill Clinton that, politically, it was a mixed blessing.

Rubin wanted to use the surplus to start repaying the debt, which was then just more than $3 trillion. The White House billed it as “saving Social Security first,” viewing the surplus as an opportunity to shore up the nation’s finances before huge numbers of the baby boom generation began claiming federal retirement benefits. “The problem was a whole other part of the political spectrum wanted to use the surplus for tax cuts,” Rubin said in an interview. “They said they wanted to give the people back their money. Of course, it was also the people’s debt.”

What to do with the surplus became a central issue of the 2000 presidential campaign, with Vice President Al Gore arguing that much of it should be put in a “lockbox” to protect Social Security and Medicare. Bush pushed for a broad tax cut, arguing that taxpayers at all income levels were owed a refund. “Some say that the growing federal surplus means Washington has more money to spend, but they’ve got it backwards,” Bush said as he accepted the GOP nomination in August 2000. “The surplus is not the government’s money. The surplus is the people’s money.”

As soon as he took office, Bush pushed Congress to make good on his tax pledge. Less than a week after his inauguration, he got a boost from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who testified before the Senate Budget Committee that “tax reduction appears required” to prevent the federal government from accumulating too much cash. Greenspan feared that large surpluses would turn the government into the nation’s largest investor, creating distortions in the markets.

A chorus of skeptics warned against spending the surplus. Some stressed the inherent uncertainty of the CBO projections. Others said a big tax cut would unleash pent-up desire in both parties to pursue expensive priorities without the pay-as-you-go restraints that had helped produce the surplus.

Congress approved a $1.35 trillion tax cut in record time. A second package, worth $350 billion, followed in 2003. Together, they constituted one of the largest tax cuts since World War II, according to the conservative Tax Foundation.

Bush’s first Treasury secretary, Paul O’Neill, resigned after the White House decided to pursue the 2003 measure. “I believed we needed the money to facilitate fundamental tax reform and begin working on unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare,” O’Neill said in an interview. But the White House, he said, was focused on improving economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2004. “They wanted to make sure economic conditions were great going into the president’s reelection.”

Proponents of tax cuts argue that the legislation merely returned tax collections to their appropriate levels. They note that the CBO’s 2001 forecast assumed that tax collections would stay above 20 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (defined as the total of all economic output) — well above the historic average of 18 percent of GDP.

“It’s not obvious that America was ready to have taxes at a level this high persistently,” said Donald Marron, a former CBO director who now heads the nonprofit Tax Policy Center. “Some degree of tax cutting was inevitable.”

But some key advocates of the tax cuts now say such a large reduction was probably ill-advised.

“Nobody would have thought that all these things would have happened after you cut taxes,” Domenici said. “That you’d have two wars and not pay for them. That you’d have another recession. A huge extravaganza of expenditures” for the military and homeland security after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. “You would pause before you did it, if you knew.”

Bill Thomas, the former House Ways and Means Committee chairman who helped shepherd the tax cuts through Congress, defended the 2003 package as “fuel for the economy.” But he said in an interview that the 2001 measure was larded with “stuff that I was not all that wild about,” including bipartisan priorities such as a big increase in the child tax credit and a break for married couples — provisions Thomas believes did little to promote economic growth and amounted to “throwing money out the window.”

“I couldn’t do anything about it,” said Thomas, a California Republican who retired in 2006. “You’re the candy man when you advocate those kinds of tax cuts.”

In the end, Bush cut taxes and spent more money. Good times masked the impact, as surging tax revenues reduced the size of year-to-year deficits during the first three years of his second term. But after the economy collapsed during Bush’s final year in office, deficits — and therefore the debt — began to explode as Obama sought to revive economic activity with more tax cuts and federal spending.

Today, the CBO forecasts are unrelievedly gloomy, showing huge deficits essentially forever. As policymakers grapple with the legacy of the past decade, a demographic wave of senior citizens is crashing at their doorstep, driving up the cost of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

William Hoagland, who was for years a top budget aide to Domenici and other GOP Senate leaders, said it is simplistic to think today’s fiscal problems began just 10 years ago. In 1976, as a young CBO analyst, Hoagland produced a long-term simulation that showed entitlement costs gradually overwhelming the rest of the federal budget.

“This situation really goes back to long before [the Bush administration], which is to say to old dead men that have long left the Congress,” he said.

Still, Hoagland said, the abandonment of fiscal discipline in the wake of the surpluses clearly didn’t help. “Nobody pushed for paying for this stuff,” he said. Not even after “it became very clear in the middle of 2003 that the line had turned on us. And the surpluses as far as the eye could see were no longer there.”
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Apr 29, 2011

PANDORA, Australia's Web Archive

National Library of Australia (437596389)Image via WikipediaPANDORA, Australia's Web Archive, is a growing collection of Australian online publications, established initially by the National Library of Australia in 1996, and now built in collaboration with nine other Australian libraries and cultural collecting organisations.

The name, PANDORA, is an acronym that encapsulates our mission: Preserving and Accessing Networked Documentary Resources of Australia.
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PAP spreading the fear of freak results and losing ministers in GRCs in Singapore election

An aerial view of Parliament House in Singapore.Image via Wikipedia
New Temasek Review, April 29th, 2011

The PAP has this strategy of having each GRC helmed by a minister. The idea is make people fearful of “losing a minister” if they vote against the PAP in a GRC. The PAP then puts newcomers in a GRC who get into parliament on the coat-tails exploiting this fear among voters. Yesterday, PM Lee again played up this fear by saying voters “would have to live with the consequence” of voting for the opposition. So is it really that disastrous if a minister is voted out? We have a very expensive civil service which has highly paid permanent secretaries for each ministry and they are further supported by an also very expensive Admin Service. We have seen ministers without any prior experience, say Liu Tuck Yew who was from the navy, move around and head various ministries. This is possible because there is whole civil service infrastructure in place to support decision making. But suppose you’re still not convinced and believe the minister to be a “super-being” without whom his ministry will collapse and all those civil servants don’t know what to do unless he is around, just rehire him as “mentor permanent secretary” after he loses.

It is really strange how PAP can create this myth that a running small country like Singapore is almost like 10 times more complex than running the USA or UK and people believe them. You see the opposition in other countries, say in UK, taking over after a decade long absence without much problem.

The other favorite fear mongered during Singapore elections is that of a “freak” result. We see the PAP talking about this during every election. The only thing I find “freakish” about our election results is more than one third of Singaporeans vote against the PAP and this one-third is represented by only 2% of the members in parliament – no thanks to the GRC system. The PAP likes to paint a scenario like this[Link] : people actually want the PAP to remain the govt but somehow vote opposition in such large numbers that they become the majority in parliament. If people vote for the opposition in large numbers, it is most likely these people want the PAP to go. If the unlikely outcome of PAP losing the election occurs, it is more due to their tinkering of the election system in the past decades. Their “methods” of winning elections – use of propaganda, upgrading pork barrel and GRCs + gerrymandering - have an outside chance of backfiring badly on them. The PAP has become dependent on propaganda style of disseminating information which often results in oversimplication and one-sided arguments that many, especially the newer generation, find deceptive and this is being rendered useless by the Internet. Increasing number of people now view their upgrading pork barrel tactics negatively and as something unfair and undemocratic. GRCs and gerrymandering with the electoral boundaries to spread out supporters in a way to gain as many seats as possible and spread the margin of safety. However, if there is an unforeseen swing in votes they will be hit badly losing more seats than if they had more concentration of support within a stronger GRC.

It is not expected for the PAP to lose this elections – despite what they have done in recent years, they still enjoy the goodwill from the 70s right up to early 90s. Reminds me of the Japanese LDP govt that went on and on for years long after they were bad enough to be thrown out. If the remote (I would say negligible) possibility of the PAP losing this elections occur, it will be because of their policies and tactics which have lost them many supporters in the last few years not due to voters making a “freakish” mistake of voting opposition when they really want the PAP.

The outcome most Singaporeans want in this elections is a more balanced 1st world parliament. They want more balanced policies and know they cannot get that with a parliament dominated by the PAP. Once the nomination is done and campaigning begins, it will become very clear where the “hot seats” are and it is a matter of Singaporeans overcoming their own fears to get what they want for the long term good for Singapore, a better future for themselves and their families. This elections, even die-hard PAP supporters have to agree (unless they are unreasonable people) that the opposition has very good highly qualified people who can contribute. If these people don’t win due to what many see as unfair PAP tactics, frustration with the PAP is going to mount further polarising the large segment of the population (now >33%) that don’t support the PAP and that is actually not good for the PAP. There are genuine philosophical and ideological difference among the citizens. PAP policies don’t benefit everyone and I would argue that in recent years they don’t even benefit the majority. This country has to start changing direction soon or it will have to do so in a more abrupt manner in the future. I think in 2006, voters gave the PAP a chance to remake itself under a new PM. However, to their disappointment, the PAP appeared to have remade itself in the wrong direction – unbalanced policies like foreign talent policy became even more unbalanced, income gap got bigger, GST was hiked, minister pay increased and expensive public housing became more expensive. The PAP spent the last 4+ years demonstrating to the people the need for a strong opposition in parliament! …and I believe this is what they are going to get in the coming election.

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Lucky Tan
*The writer blogs at Diary of a Singaporean Mind
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Apr 28, 2011

Where the 'Action' Is Now on This Blog

It's in the two Twitter gadgets in the upper right sidebar.  The ones called My Latest Tweets (about 6 or so,all the gadgets allows) and All My Tweets (everything I tweet, better of the two choices). 

Who Does Obama Want to Be When He Grows Up?

Official Portrait of President Ronald ReaganImage via Wikipedia | web only



Barack Obama hearts Ronald Reagan. We saw it during the 2008 presidential election, when he praised Reagan's ability to change the political landscape, and we saw it most recently, in his speech on the deficit, when he invoked Reagan in a plea for bipartisanship. Obama clearly envisions himself as a two-term president in Reagan's mold, and wants his tenure to be as central to liberals as Reagan's was to conservatives. But, as much as the president might like to compare himself to Reagan, he should be mindful of a slightly more recent Republican president: George H.W. Bush. In particular, he should study the core lesson from the first Bush's only term: it's the economy, stupid.

To be fair, the comparison to Reagan is very apt. Both Obama and Reagan entered the White House on the heels of a deeply unpopular predecessor, and both confronted unparalleled economic slowdowns. Both pursued ambitious, ideologically driven agendas, experienced a steady decline in approval ratings as unemployment rose, and suffered significant political setbacks in their midterm elections. Indeed, at 43 percent in the most recent Gallup poll, Obama's popularity is exactly the same as Reagan's at this point in his presidency.

But Reagan's fortunes soon rose. By 1984, a fast-growing economy and lower unemployment led to higher approval ratings and a successful re-election campaign against Walter Mondale and a fragmented Democratic Party. Today, optimistic liberals see history repeating itself. Between continued economic growth and a weak Republican field, Obama is seemingly in prime position to win a second term.

Of course, at one point, optimistic conservatives said the same about George H.W. Bush, and for good reason: In the spring of 1991, he was still riding the tidal wave of popularity generated by American success in the Gulf War. And while unemployment and economic anxiety soon pushed his approval ratings down from a historic high near 90 percent, Bush remained a reliable re-election bet because of the supposed weakness of the Democratic field.

New York Times' headlines and reports from the time indicate the apparent inevitability of Bush's re-election: from March 8, 1991, "Unable to Out-Hero Bush, Democrats Just Join Him"; from Aug. 8, 1991, "Democrats' Distress Grows as Presidential Field Shrinks"; and from Feb. 16, 1992, "Democrats Dread a Season Without Heavy Hitters." Indeed, even pieces criticizing Bush for his alleged aloofness ("Bush Encounters the Supermarket, Amazed," Feb. 5, 1992) include digs at the disorganized, undisciplined Democratic presidential field ("But Mr. Bush could not seem to escape the impression that, with the Democratic field still in disarray and the economy still in recession, he was still running against himself").

Democrats eventually united behind then-Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas, whose growing popularity was bolstered by public discontent with President Bush's approach to the souring economy. By July, Clinton had pulled ahead in the polls. By October, it was clear that Bush would join the club of forgettable one-term presidents.

The truth is that Barack Obama isn't far from Bush's fate. Unemployment remains high at 8.8 percent, and Americans feel deeply pessimistic about the country's direction. In the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, 70 percent of respondents said the country is on the wrong track. What's more, 39 percent said the economy has grown worse, and 57 percent disapprove of the way President Obama is handling it.

Yes, Obama is ahead in polling by double digits against all his potential Republican opponents save Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, but as we saw with George H.W. Bush, an early lead can mean little for incumbent presidents. These numbers will almost certainly change when Republicans settle on a nominee, and if next year's economy is as bad as the current one, Obama is likely to lose his bid for re-election.

That said, Obama enters this contest with one important advantage: The core members of the Democratic coalition -- African Americans and self-identified liberals -- are mostly satisfied with Obama's performance. According to the most recent Gallup survey of presidential approval, 84 percent of African Americans and 84 percent of liberal Democrats back the president. By contrast, George H.W. Bush alienated his conservative supporters with moderate social policies and a tax hike on high incomes. This discontent fueled a serious primary challenge from conservative ideologue Pat Buchanan and led to unusually low approval from Republicans in the months before the general election (57 percent in July 1992, compared to 89 percent a year earlier). Obama's domestic-policy agenda -- comprehensive health-care reform, regulation of the financial sector, and middle-class tax cuts in particular -- has been well within the Democratic mainstream. Barring a sudden change in fortunes, Obama should enter 2012 with a unified party behind him.

Still, Democrats should temper their optimism. For all the sideshow antics of the current GOP field, odds are high that Republicans will nominate someone like Romney or Tim Pawlenty: conservative enough to satisfy the base but with enough mainstream appeal to ride a poor economy to the White House.
photoJamelle Bouie is a writing fellow at the Prospect.


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Apr 23, 2011

World Bank Faults Itself for East Timor’s Struggles

East Timor Coat Of ArmsImage via Wikipedia
WASHINGTON — A frank evaluation by the World Bank’s internal auditors of a decade of efforts to help East Timor underscores the challenges facing international organizations trying to assist struggling nations.

The draft report, not yet released publicly, assigns much of the blame for slow progress in East Timor, which emerged in 1999 after a quarter-century struggle for independence from Indonesia, to the World Bank itself.

But it also illustrates the problems that arise as development agencies try to meet urgent needs while ensuring that donors’ money is not misspent.

The review by the auditors, the Independent Evaluation Group, which reports directly to World Bank directors, covers the period from 2000 to 2010. Among its findings are that the bank delayed the opening of four desperately needed hospitals for a year because it adhered too rigidly to its own procurement rules, even though East Timor’s child mortality rate was among the highest in Southeast Asia and life expectancy was barely over 55.

“They kept these hospitals offline for a year, though they had money in the bank to equip them,” said a World Bank official familiar with the evaluation process, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the report.

The report also says efforts to support education were unsatisfactory. The bank did help build and repair schools. But at the request of the new government, which was trying to dismantle the Indonesian education system, it distributed teaching materials in Portuguese, which had been the main language of instruction before the Indonesian occupation, when Timor was a Portuguese colony.

The new government restored Portuguese as an official language along with Tetum, an indigenous language. But Portuguese was spoken by only 5 percent of the population, and few younger teachers could understand the materials.

It might have been more useful, the report says, to have developed texts in English or indigenous languages.

One result, the bank’s report says, was that by 2009, more than 70 percent of the students tested at the end of the first grade “could not read a single word” of a simple text in Portuguese, “a dismal record after 10 years of efforts.”

The report asserts that at the urging of the bank — which provides loans to developing countries with the explicit goal of fighting poverty — East Timor saved too much of its petroleum revenues rather than spend them on social projects, an approach that contributed to needlessly high levels of poverty and unemployment.

Poverty in East Timor, already at a rate twice that of Indonesia’s level, “rose significantly through most of the evaluation period and declined only after 2007, when the government, against bank advice, increased its spending using petroleum resources,” the report states.

Ferid Belhaj, the World Bank’s director for East Timor, said it was against the bank’s policy to comment on an evaluation that was not final. But he said the country had made “tremendous progress” in the past decade, building or rehabilitating 637 schools and helping to increase life expectancy to 61 in 2008, from 56 in 2000.

The bank’s 2011 World Development Report points to the need for long-term horizons in fragile states. “True institutional transformations require time,” that report says. “It typically takes 15 to 30 years for weak or illegitimate national institutions to become resilient to violence and instability.”

When East Timor became independent, an estimated 70 percent of its economic infrastructure had been destroyed in years of fighting that killed thousands and displaced much of the population.

The World Bank is supposed to work through local governments, but East Timor barely had one then. Ministry offices were sometimes run by former rebels fresh from the hills.

“It’s a lot easier to look backwards,” said Scott Guggenheim, a former World Bank adviser who worked in East Timor. “The country had been burned down. You had half the population in refugee camps.”

Mr. Guggenheim, who spoke by telephone from Kabul, where he is working with the Afghan government on development, said that project delays like those afflicting East Timor were equally common in Afghanistan.

“Procurement is always tricky,” he said. “It’s where most corruption happens. The donors clamoring for faster procurement are the first to scream bloody murder if an audit says that people cut corners to speed things up.”

The question raised by critics — and at least indirectly by the new evaluation — is whether the World Bank has fully internalized the necessary lessons about flexibility.

Difficult compromises are often necessary, specialists say.

“If you’re in a postconflict situation and you think people’s lives are at stake, you are going to want to try to move as quickly as possible, even though you recognize that maybe some things are going to be used less efficiently,” said Michael Morfit, a professor of international development at Georgetown University who worked in Indonesia for the United States Agency for International Development. “You just accept that as the trade-off.” The case of the Portuguese school texts in East Timor poses a somewhat different challenge: knowing when to resist a government’s policies if they seem ill advised.
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Apr 21, 2011

UN chief appeals for end to Libya killing

Ban Ki-moon's plea comes as concern mounts over crisis in Misurata and Obama approves use of armed Predator drones.
Last Modified: 21 Apr 2011 20:19
As the battle for Libya rages on, the rebels have called for international troops to help defeat Gaddafi [GALLO/GETTY]
Casualties are on the rise as Libyan government forces and rebel fighters battle it out on the streets of besieged western city of Misurata, amid calls by the UN chief to "stop fighting".
Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, urged Libyan authorities on Thursday to "stop fighting and stop killing people" and said the world body's priority was to secure a ceasefire.
"At this time our priority is to bring about a verifiable and effective ceasefire, and then we can expand our humanitarian assistance, and we are going to engage in political dialogue," he said during an official visit to Moscow.
 Keep up with all the latest developments here
Meanwhile, in Washington the US defence secretary told the Reuters news agency that the US president had approved use of armed Predator drones in Libya, and that missions involving the unmanned aircraft were set to begin.
The Libyan rebels have been trying since mid-February to end Muammar Gaddafi's 41-year-old rule but have struggled against his more experienced and better equipped forces.
International forces have been carrying out air raids on forces loyal to Gaddafi since March 19, in a mission headed by NATO since March 31.
The NATO-led coalition is enforcing a UN mandated no-fly zone in Libya, which authorises "all necessary measures" to protect civilians from attack by Gaddafi's forces.
Border post captured
Earlier on Thursday, pro-democracy fighters took control of the Libyan side of a key border crossing with Tunisia, in a remote western region.
Witnesses said pro-Gaddafi forces abandoned their weapons and fled into Tunisia.
Click on image for comprehensive coverage on Libya
Sue Turton, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Benghazi, said there was fierce fighting before the rebels were able to seize control of the post.
"The post ... has some 6,000 Libyans trying to get into Tunisia trying to flee the fighting here. People are camped out there," she said.
"We're also hearing from the national council here that this isn't the first time that they've taken control of that outpost. They're just watching to see whether Gaddafi forces strike back and try to take the post back again."
Elsewhere in the country, Libyan state television said, NATO forces struck the Khallat al-Farjan area of the capital Tripoli, killing seven people and wounding 18 others.
The report could not immediately be independently verified.
But NATO denied that any air raid had killed civilians, saying the target was a command and control bunker in a military compound.
The developments came on a day forces loyal to Gaddafi rained mortar fire on Misurata, the only rebel stronghold in the country's west where fighting has trapped 300,000 residents.
Medics said they have seen children with shrapnel and bullet wounds, with snipers allegedly killing and causing terror among the residents.
Misurata's plight
Food and water are hard to be found and the hospitals are totally overwhelmed in Misurata.
Many residents have been forced to flee.
Up to 50 or 60 people ... are being injured per day," Mohammed Al Fagieh, chief surgeon at a hospital in Misurata, told Al Jazeera.
"I'm talking about the hospital, I'm not talking about Misurata. The number might double or triple sometimes."
Moussa Ibrahim, the Libyan government spokesman, said Gaddafi's forces control more than 80 per cent of Misurata and the rebels hold "the sea port and the area surrounding it".
"Among the casualties of the fighting in the city are Western journalists Chris Hondros and Tim Hetherington, both photojournalists, who died in a mortar attack on Wednesday.
Ibrahim said Libyan troops were not to blame for their deaths of the two photographers.
"We are very sad for the loss of any human life even from the rebel side, so we're really sad for the loss of these two lives," he said. "It's not the responsibility of our army."
As reports of the humanitarian crisis in Misurata poured in, Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, accused Gaddafi's troops of continuing their "vicious attacks".
"Colonel Gaddafi's troops continue their vicious attacks including the siege of Misurata. There are even reports that Gaddafi forces may have used cluster bombs against their own people," she said on Thursday.

Signs of war crimes

The UN has said it is looking for signs of war crimes in Libya. The Gaddafi government has strenuously denied attacking civilians in Misurata.
Valerie Amos, the UN humanitarian chief, said the situation has not yet reached the point where the UN needs NATO troops to secure humanitarian supplies in the country.
"At the moment, we have an agreement with the European force and with NATO that should we reach a point where the utilisation of civilian assets becomes impossible because of the security situation, we, the UN, would call on them for support for military assets," she said.
Al Jazeera's Sue Turton said many Libyans are looking abroad to see when international help will come.
"There has been talk of possibly foreign troops on the ground. Whether or not foreign troops are allowed on this soil is still a matter of contention. I've been told by the [rebel] Libyan Transitional National Council that maybe those troops could be provided by some of the Arab countries rather than the European countries."
David Cameron, the British prime minister, insisted on Thursday that NATO was not edging towards deployment of ground troops in Libya despite the recent decision by several European nations to send military advisers to assist rebel forces.
"The UN Security Council does limit us. We're not allowed, rightly, to have an invading army, or an occupying army," he told BBC Scotland radio.
Russia said the sending of advisers exceeded the Security Council mandate to protect civilians.
"We are not happy about the latest events in Libya, which are pulling the international community into a conflict on the ground. This may have unpredictable consequences," Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said.
Source:
Al Jazeera and agencies
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Conflict leads to Afghan displacement, but which side most to blame?

US forces in Afghanistan - “tactical victories may prove to be strategic setbacks”
KABUL, 21 April 2011 (IRIN) - One irony of the current security situation in Afghanistan is that foreign forces, whose ostensible aim is to protect civilians while fighting the Taliban, may be responsible - directly or indirectly - for the bulk of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the country, whose number is rising.

About 400 individuals were displaced each day in 2006-2010 - 730,000 in total - mostly due to military operations by US/NATO forces, according to the Oslo-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), an affiliate of the Norwegian Refugee Council.

The so-called “surge” in US/NATO troops and increased counterinsurgency operations in 2010 resulted in the displacement of about 85,000 people in the volatile south of the country alone. About 10,000 were also displaced by anti-insurgent offensives in the north, IDMC said.

“The US and ISAF [NATO-led International Security Assistance Force] currently lack an understanding of internal displacement in the context of their operations,” Jacob Rothing, an IDMC country analyst, told IRIN, adding that their own standard operating procedures to minimize civilian displacement were not developed and used by US/NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Furthermore, local militias hired by the government and its US/NATO allies for counterinsurgency purposes, were extorting communities and grabbing land, resulting in further internal displacements, Rothing alleged.

ISAF said it could not “agree or disagree” with the allegation that forces under its command were responsible for most of the civilian displacements in Afghanistan.

“We have not seen the means by which the causes of conflict-related displacements are assigned,” said John L. Dorrian, an ISAF spokesman.

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) said it was not in a position to say which warring party was most to blame for most internal displacement.

“We can certainly say that people are mostly displaced by conflict - all fighting parties have to be blamed,” said Nader Farhad, a UNHCR spokesman in Kabul.

ISAF, meanwhile, said that its counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign was focused on the protection of civilians.

Casualties

“The clear principle that Gen David Petraeus [commander of all US/NATO forces in Afghanistan] has conveyed to ISAF troops is that civilian casualties and collateral damage are detrimental to ISAF's cause,” John L. Dorrian, a NATO/ISAF spokesman in Kabul, told IRIN, adding that if troops operated contrary to the COIN principles “tactical victories may prove to be strategic setbacks”.

The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported in March that civilian casualties attributed to foreign forces dropped by 26 percent in 2010 compared to the previous year, but the number of noncombatants killed and wounded by armed opposition groups increased by 28 percent in the same period. Over 2,770 Afghan civilians were killed in 2010, UNAMA said.

''While US and ISAF forces made successful efforts in 2010 to minimize civilian casualties and loss of life, they have not made equivalent efforts to reduce the scale of forced internal displacement, despite its scale and the demonstrated impact of displacement on support for international forces''
However, the Taliban rejected UNAMA’s report, calling it “biased”.

“While US and ISAF forces made successful efforts in 2010 to minimize civilian casualties and loss of life, they have not made equivalent efforts to reduce the scale of forced internal displacement, despite its scale and the demonstrated impact of displacement on support for international forces,” said an IDMC report released on 11 April.

Government’s weak capacity

Over one million people were displaced in 2002 after the Taliban regime was toppled by a US-led military intervention. Most of the Pashtun IDPs who had left their homes in the north of the country in 2001-2002 have either returned to their home areas or have been integrated elsewhere in the country, according to aid agencies.

However, with the intensification of conflict over the past five years, tens of thousands of people, mostly in the volatile south, have been forced out of their homes.

While international aid agencies have responded to some of the immediate needs of IDPs (mostly food and non-food aid items), the government has been criticized for its ineffectiveness in solving problems associated with displacement.

“The Afghan government is generally unable or unwilling to assist IDPs,” said the IDMC report.

Islamudin Jurat, a spokesman for the Ministry of Refugee and Returnee Affairs (MoRRA), agreed there was a lack of institutional capacity to provide long-term solutions to the growing internal displacement.

“MoRRA is part of the government and there are capacity weaknesses all across government. We don’t overlook this but we are committed to building and improving our capacity,” said Jurat.

More IDPs in 2011

More than 390,000 IDPs are currently scattered across the country, mostly in makeshift camps and informal settlements, according to UNHCR, which also says the real number of IDPs could be significantly higher as it does not have access to all of them.

About 49 percent of IDPs are female and 51 percent are male. Fifty-four percent are under 18 and fewer than 2 percent are over 60, according to IDMC.

Despite the unprecedented US/NATO military presence (over 150,000 soldiers), insecurity is widely anticipated to exacerbate in 2011 with more tragic consequences for civilians.

“The IDMC expects displacements to rise in 2011 in comparison to 2010,” said Jacob Rothing, adding that 78,000 people were displaced between September 2010 and January 2011 compared to only 18,000 in the five preceding months.

“Displacement is already increasing in the north,” he said.

Other humanitarian agencies such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) have also warned that the security situation has become “untenable” for civilians.

“The first two months of 2011 have seen a dramatic deterioration in the security situation for ordinary Afghans,” ICRC said on 15 March.

To reduce civilian displacements, IDMC said, US/NATO forces should abide by their own standard operating procedures to protect civilians “before, during and after” military operations and develop appropriate monitoring and reporting mechanisms on forced displacements.

“We would strongly encourage the military leadership to develop such guidelines in consultation with UNHCR, IDPs and other competent organizations,” said IDMC’s Rothing.

NATO/ISAF said it was providing “an enormous amount of humanitarian aid” to Afghans - almost 500,000 beneficiaries in the first quarter of 2011.

Aid agencies, however, contend that in terms of humanitarian response they come first, and that NATO/ISAF’s best help would be to avoid or at least minimize civilian displacements as a result of their military activities.

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Apr 20, 2011

New East-West Center Publication

New Publications

Dealing with Davis: Inconsistencies in the US-Pakistan Relationship
by Huma Yusuf
Asia Pacific Bulletin, no. 103 (Washington, DC: East-West Center in Washington, March 28, 2011)
2 pp.
Download PDF file free of charge
 
The nine-week standoff between the United States and Pakistan over the fate of Raymond Davis, an American arrested in Pakistan after shooting two men at a traffic stop, ended on March 16 with his sudden release from jail. Davis was freed under Islamic law, which allows a murderer to receive pardon from the family of his victims on payment of compensation, or "blood money." Religious parties protested the decision, stating that the law had been applied incorrectly to satisfy US demands for Davis' release. Still, media and analysts inside and outside Pakistan have termed the development a "win" for the country. Huma Yusuf discusses how US security interests underpinning US-Pakistan relations, as evidenced in the Davis case, are entrenching ISI's paramount influence in Pakistan further to the great detriment of Pakistan's civilian institutions.

The Asia Pacific Bulletin (APB), produced by the East-West Center in Washington, publishes summaries of Congressional Study Groups, conferences, seminars, and visitor roundtables, as well as short articles and opinion pieces. APB summaries are always two pages or less, designed for the busy professional or policymaker to capture the essence of dialogue and debate on issues of concern in US-Asia relations. For more information on the series, including submission guidelines, visit http://www.eastwestcenter.org/apb
 
 
Related publications:

Bloody Blasphemy: Antagonizing Religious Minorities in Indonesia and Pakistan
by Endy Bayuni
Asia Pacific Bulletin, no. 97 (Washington, DC: East-West Center in Washington, March 2, 2011)

Pakistan's Courts: A Counterterrorism Challenge
by Huma Yusuf
Asia Pacific Bulletin, no. 77 (Washington, DC: East-West Center in Washington, November 1, 2010)

Military Professionalism in Asia: Conceptual and Empirical Perspectives
edited by Muthiah Alagappa
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2001)
 

 

Search the East-West Center Publications website for publications by the East-West Center and its staff. Contact the East-West Center Publication Sales Office at ewcbooks@EastWestCenter.org.

Recent ICG Reports


Apr 18, 2011

Former Saleh allies form new party in Yemen

Last Modified: 18 Apr 2011 21:57



Yemen's protests are in their third month and bring tens of thousands onto the streets almost every day [Reuters]


Members of Yemen's ruling party including three former ministers formed a new bloc to support protests against the rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Yemeni president.

The new party, called the Justice and Development Bloc, opposes the suppression of protests and is demanding an end to Saleh's 32-year rule, Mohammed Abu Lahoum, its leader, said on Monday.

The protests, inspired by uprisings that toppled the leaders of Egypt and Tunisia, are now in their third month and bring tens of thousands of people onto the streets almost every day demanding an end to endemic poverty and corruption. Scores of protesters have been killed.

At least 88 people were wounded on Monday in the Red Sea port of Hudaida as plain clothes police fired bullets and tear gas at protesters, who responded by hurling stones, witnesses and doctors said.

After years of backing Saleh as a bulwark against regional instability and the activities of al-Qaeda's active Yemeni branch, Saudi Arabia and the United States are now pressing him to negotiate with the opposition on handing over power.

The new Justice and Development Bloc includes former ministers for tourism, human rights and transport from the ruling party, and a number of members of parliament, who joined a stream of former officials who have already deserted Saleh.

'Difference in views'

"We support the youthful revolution and we are with it," Lahoum said. "The issue is not the split from the ruling party but the difference in views."

The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including Saudi Arabia, have offered to mediate between the opposition and the government. But the Yemeni opposition rejects such talks without guarantees that Saleh will relinquish power.

No breakthrough was reached at a meeting between opposition leaders and GCC foreign ministers in Saudi Arabia on Sunday night.

A ruling party official told Reuters news agency a high-level delegation from the party would head to Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, for a meeting there on Tuesday.






In Hudaida, residents said that plainclothes police armed with clubs, pistols and stones had attacked thousands of protesters who had marched into the streets outside the square where they have been camping for weeks calling for Saleh to go.

"We're appealing for help in medical supplies as we're really suffering from a severe shortage ... the medical situation is really bad," Abdul Jabar Zayed, a protester, said.

"We have some friends missing and we think they were arrested, we are still making calculations but no specific number yet."

In a first round of clashes hurt 15 people, two were shot and the others were beaten or hit with stones, doctors said, and protesters began to withdraw back to their camp.

Clashes erupted again as riot police fired shots and tear gas at a group of protesters, witnesses said.

Protesters responded by marching out of their camp again, this time headed for Hudaida's main thoroughfare, residents said.

Five people were shot and 68 were beaten or suffering from teargas inhalation, they said. Zayed said protesters had built a roadblock to try to prevent police getting closer to the demonstrations.
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