Assessing the performance of Yingluck, the government, Abhisit, and the opposition in the no-confidence debate:
Reuters:
Thailand’s government survived a no-confidence vote on Wednesday….
Yingluck has enjoyed a period of stability after years of upheaval and her government’s better-than-expected performance in the debate, coupled with the low turnout for Saturday’s protest which quickly fizzled out, strengthen her leadership while offering a reminder of Thailand’s stubborn political divisions.
…
“Accusations of foul play will keep the government off-balance but won’t hurt it,” said Siripan Nogsuan, a political analyst at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
BP: There have been a few polls that have focused on the performance of Yingluck, Abhisit, the government, and the opposition in the no-confidence debate. Below, BP will look at four polls, but will provide some comments based on the polls and BP’s overall assessment first:
A. On Yingluck:
Suan Dusit Poll shows that a slight majority (51.79%) found Yingluck the most impressive of the government speakers (Q3.2). This corresponds with a Bangkok University poll showing Yingluck gave the clearest answers of anyone from the government side in the no-confidence debate with a score of 37.7 (Q1.4) – the score itself though is not high (i.e good comparatively only). In addition, a plurality (44.5%) viewed that she should have listened and answered more than she did (Q1.5).
ABAC poll showed 68.6% of people, the highest for anyone in the government, had confidence in Yingluck (Q2.2). Suan Dusit Poll shows that 55% have the same level of confidence in Yingluck as they did before the debate. 24% say they have less confidence than before in her whereas only 21% have more confidence in her (Q4.1). That 24% having less confidence is the lowest decline in confidence compared to 25% with less confidence for Abhisit, 34% for government, and 31% for the opposition (Q4).
BP: Yingluck is not the best debater so she was never going to particularly shine during the no-confidence debate, but her answers scored the highest from the government side even if many thought she should have answered more questions. Despite some questions raised about corruption, the no-confidence debate has had minimal impact, if any, on her popularity.
B. On the government:
Bangkok University poll gives the answers of the government 6.07 compared to 5.67 for the opposition (Q1.6) whereas for the ABAC poll the government only scored 6.34 to the opposition’s 6.42 (Q2.3). Suan Dusit poll shows that 48% have the same level of confidence in the government as before, but 34% have less confidence than before whereas only 18% have more. The 34% with less confidence was higher than the numbers of either Abhisit, Yingluck or the opposition.
BP: In general, there are likely to be increasing questions for the government over the rice pledging scheme in coming months, but the Democrat’s surprising choice
not to directly go after the Commerce Minister means there is not as much pressure on him. The government continues to score lower than Yingluck – or is that Yingluck scores higher than the government – but this is part of a
long trend.
C. On Abhisit and the opposition:
According to the Suan Dusit Poll, Abhist was the most impressive of the the opposition speakers (Q3.3). The level of confidence that people have him was mostly unchanged compared to before. The no-confidence debate has not made much impact on the public’s view on him.
According to ABAC, a plurality viewed that opposition were able to introduce in new information that people hadn’t heard before, that the information was clear, and reliable (Q2.1), but according to a Bangkok University Poll 51.1% of people found the opposition’s information not very reliable or not reliable (Q1.3). Also, per the ABAC poll the opposition scored 6.42 to the government’s 6.34 (Q2.3), but for the Bangkok University poll the opposition scored only 5.67 compared to 6.07 for the government (Q1.6).
BP: You can say both were effective in raising questions, but there was no killer punch. The opposition will continue to
raise questions over corruption in the rice pledging scheme which could end up being the government’s Achilles’ heel…
The polls are below:
First, Bangkok University
surveyed 1,061 people throughout the country between November 26-November 27 on the no-confidence debate.* Below are some of the questions:
Q1.1. Did you listen or watch the no-confidence debate?
A. Followed at times when there were interesting points, 52.2%
B. Following from the news, 40.7%
C. Followed the whole no-confidence debate, 7.1%
Q1.2. Information from the opposition captured your interest or not?
A. No, 55.7%
B. Yes, 44.3%
Q1.3. Reliability of information from the opposition in the no-confidence debate?
A. Very reliable, 8.2%
B. Rather reliable, 40.7%
C. Rather not reliable, 41.8%
D. Not reliable at all, 9.3%
Q1.4. Answers of those in the no-confidence debate.
Q1.5. When asked whether the PM gave enough information and in her duties of answering the opposition’s questions in no-confidence debate and how good was it?
A. Should have answered and listened more than this, 44.5%
B. It was good, 39.2%
C. No answer, 16.3%
Q1.6. What scores do you give those in the no-confidence debate?
A. Speaker, 6.14
B. Answers of the government, 6.07
C. Debate from the opposition, 5.67
Second, ABAC
surveyed 1,231 people between November 26-27 in 17 provinces (กรุงเทพมหานคร เพชรบุรี ฉะเชิงเทรา นครปฐม สมุทรปราการ อุตรดิตถ์ ลำปาง เชียงใหม่ เชียงราย มุกดาหาร หนองคาย สกลนคร ร้อยเอ็ด บุรีรัมย์ เลย นราธิวาส และสงขลา).** Below are some of the questions:
Q2.1: Opinions on the issues and information in the no-confidence debate of the government and the opposition (แสดงค่าร้อยละของตัวอย่างที่ระบุ ประเด็นต่างๆ ของข้อมูลในการอภิปรายระหว่างฝ่ายค้านและฝ่ายรัฐบาล)
Q2.2: Opinions on the Prime Minister and the Ministers who faced the no-confidence debate (แสดงค่าร้อยละของตัวอย่างที่ระบุ ความคิดเห็นต่อนายกรัฐมนตรีและรัฐมนตรีที่ถูกอภิปราย)
Q2.3: Satisfaction with political entities in the no-confidence debate this time. Scores out of 10 (แสดงค่าคะแนนเฉลี่ย ความพึงพอใจต่อฝ่ายการเมืองในการอภิปรายไม่ไว้วางใจในครั้งนี้ เมื่อคะแนนเต็ม 10)
A. Government, 6.34
B. Opposition, 6.42
Third, a Suan Dusit Poll surveyed (
PDF) 1,194 people throughout the country between November 25-27. Below are some of the questions:
Q3.1: Whose information did you believe more?
A. Neither, 41.06%
B. Believe the government more, 24.5%
C. Believe both about the same, 19.21%
D. Believe the opposition more, 15.23%
Q3.2: On the government side, who were you most impressed with during the no-confidence debate?
A. Yingluck, 51.79%
B. Chalerm, 38.95%
C. Sukampol, 9.26%
Q3.3: On the opposition side, who were you most impressed with during the no-confidence debate?
A. Abhisit, 50.04%
B. Chuwit, 25.13%
C. Jurin, 24.83%
Fourth, a Suan Dusit poll that surveyed (
PDF) 1,356 people throughout the country between November 29-December 1. Below are some of the questions:
Q4.1: What confidence do you have in Yingluck in the position of PM after the no-confidence debate?
A. Same as before, 55.31%
B. Less than before, 23.89%
C. More than before, 20.8%
Q4.2: What confidence do you have in Abhisit in the position as leader of the opposition after the no-confidence debate?
A. Same as before, 55.73%
B. Less than before, 24.85%
C. More than before, 19.42%
Q4.3 What confidence do you have towards the government after the no-confidence debate?
A. Same as before, 48%
B. Less than before, 34.22%
C. More than before, 17.78%
Q4.4 What confidence do you have towards the opposition after the no-confidence debate?
A. Same as before, 47.53%
B. Less than before, 31.39%
C. More than before, 21.08%
* Survey methodology for Bangkok University Poll:
By gender: 48.9% women and 51.1% men
By age:
* those aged 18-25 (24%),
* those aged 26-35 (28%),
* those aged 36-45 (23.4%),
* those aged 46+ (24.6%)
By education:
57.6% have less than a bachelor’s degree, 37.3% have a bachelor’s degree, and 5.1% have an advanced degree.
By profession:
12.7% contractors, 29.7% are traders/self-employed, 25.6% work for private enterprises, 12.4% are civil servants/state enterprise employees, 4.3% are housewives/househusbands/retired, 10.4% students, Others 4.9% didn’t specify a job/unemployed/freelance.
BP: Over emphasis on those under 45.
**
Survey methodology for ABAC Poll:
Gender:
Males 44.4%
Females 55.6%
Age:
Under 20, 4.8%
20-29, 20.2%
30-39, 20.1%
40-49, 19.2%
50+, 35.8%
BP: Much more over 50s than usual – usually it is less than 20% which BP thinks is not reflective of the voting population.
Where they can vote:
Northeast, 34.8%
North, 21.1%
Bangkok, 10.4%
Central, 20.1%
South, 13.6%
BP: Interesting question given that many people, especially who are located in Bangkok, can’t actually vote in Bangkok so this is more relevant than location.
Education:
Less than Bachelor’s, 63.9%
Bachelor’s degree or higher, 36.1%
Occupation:
33.5% are farmers/contractors,
31.5% are traders/self-employed,
8.7% work for private enterprises,
8.6% are civil servants/state enterprise employees,
7.1% are housewives/househusbands/retired,
7.4% are students, and
3.2% didn’t specify a job/unemployed.
