Japanese Poll Sees Election Landslide

By TAKASHI NAKAMICHI

TOKYO -- Polls indicate that the Democratic Party of Japan is set to score a landslide victory in the Aug. 30 elections, potentially giving the opposition group a mandate to push through new measures to restart Japan's economy.

The DPJ would likely take about 300 of the 480 seats in the Japanese Parliament's lower house, local daily newspapers the Nikkei and Yomiuri Shimbun reported Friday in separate surveys. That is more than twice the party's current 112 seats. It would give the party both an outright majority and control over all 17 lower house parliamentary committees, giving it broad ability to push through initiatives.

The polls cited widespread desire among voters for a new ruling party to replace the scandal-prone Liberal Democratic Party, which has dominated Japanese politics for half a century.

Senior DPJ officials played down the survey results, saying elections are unpredictable. The number of undecided voters also makes the results hard to predict. The Nikkei poll found 24% of respondents were still undecided on whom to vote for in their single-member districts that make up 300 of the seats, while 17% said they were undecided on which party to vote for in the proportional representation segment, which makes up the rest.

But analysts said the polls showed the election would likely put an end to the LDP's nearly unbroken rule since 1955.

The LDP has acknowledged its trailing position in polls but says the DPJ's proposals are expensive and ineffective.

Some foreign investors would welcome a DPJ rise to power, as the party looks determined to tackle structural problems such as feeble domestic demand, a strained pension system, and a falling birth rate, said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief Japan economist at Credit Suisse Securities.

Some analysts questioned whether the DPJ's planned steps to lift domestic demand would be effective and whether the party would be able to fund those measures without worsening Japan's fiscal plight. The country's fiscal state is the worst among industrialized countries, with its debt totaling about 170% of its annual gross domestic product.

It will probably prove "difficult for a country with a shrinking population to build a domestic-demand-led economy," said Yoshimasa Maruyama, a policy analyst at Itochu Corp.

It might also have to show results quickly. "The consensus is the DPJ has to prove themselves in the first three months to the average punter and maintain their credibility in order to get a firm majority in the upper house" in elections next year, said Stephen Church, an analyst at equity research house Japaninvest.

The DPJ's campaign pledges released last month included plans to eventually spend 16.8 trillion yen, or $178 billion, in the fiscal year starting April 2013, on measures such as allowances to families raising children, free public high-school education, and cuts in gasoline taxes. Its aim is to generate more economic growth via domestic economic activity, rather than relying on ever-rising exports, the model that successive LDP administrations followed.

This month's election will come at a time when government support is playing a crucial role in pulling the economy out of its worst recession since World War II.

—Alison Tudor and Takeshi Takeuchi contributed to this article.

Write to Takashi Nakamichi at takashi.nakamichi@dowjones.com