Jan 8, 2010

Eight to Watch: The Issues that Will Shape the World in 2010

Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones Nuclear weapo...Image via Wikipedia

By SPIEGEL Staff

The past year seemed a fitting end to a decade during which the world lurched from crisis to crisis. The list of unfinished business is long and many pressing issues are set to demand attention in 2010. SPIEGEL presents the ones to watch.

The year 2009 seems to have left behind more unfinished business than accomplishments. Topping the list, of course, were climate talks in Copenhagen, which left behind little more than a vague roadmap for a possible way forward as the world searches for a joint strategy to combat global warming.

But there are myriad outstanding issues that still need to be tended to. Iran still seems intent on producing a nuclear weapon. Pakistan appears to be edging further towards the abyss. Afghanistan continues spiralling into violence, and fears of global terrorism are higher than ever after the failed Christmas Day attack on a Northwest Airlines flight from Europe to Detroit. Although the countries of the world pulled together to prevent a catastrophe during the worst recession since World War II, the global economy is still far from good health.

But 2010 won't just be a year of tending to crises. The football world championships, to be held this time around in South Africa, are once again rapidly approaching and China is set to host a massively lavish World's Fair at Shanghai's EXPO 2010. SPIEGEL presents the eight issues to watch in 2010.

One Sudan or Two?

People in Africa's largest country are scheduled to go to the polls in April, and the results could help determine whether Sudan will remain a unified country, or whether it will split. A referendum as to whether the south, made up primarily of Christians and animists, will break off from the predominently Muslim north, is planned for January 2011. But even now, the north has little interest in maintaining stability in the south of the country.

In theory, oil deposits in the south could make the region rich. Reality, however, looks different, with Sudan's south a classic failed state. It does not have a functioning government or a dependable judiciary. Nor is there an adequate police force, public administration or educational and health-care infrastructure. In 2009 alone, more than 2,000 people were killed in clashes and attacks, some of which were ethnically motivated while others were instigated by the north. Indeed, it seems unlikely that the elections scheduled for April will actually take place. The voting process is complicated, and both the north and the south have accused each other of tampering with electoral rolls in southern Sudan. More chaos is likely.

Participation in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation...Image via Wikipedia

An End to Iraq's Maliki Era?

One of the most important elections scheduled for 2010 will be held in Iraq on March 6. The vote will determine whether current Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will remain in office. The politician, who belongs to the country's Shiite population, has succeeded in establishing a degree of governability to what is surely the Middle East's most difficult country to govern.

All of al-Maliki's serious challengers are also Shiites, including ambitious Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani. But in Iraq, compromise candidates are often drawn from the ranks of lesser-known candidates, as happened with al-Maliki himself. If the process of choosing the next prime minister drags on for as long as it did in 2006, resolution of the problem may require hard-fought and extremely fragile compromises. They might have to be made between Sunnis and Shiites, Kurds and Arabs -- and between Baghdad, which wants to demonstrate its independence, and Washington, which wants to retain a high degree of influence even after its troops withdraw in August.

An Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities?

2010 might be the year that sees the United States and Russia make massive reductions in their stockpiles of nuclear weapons. And it might also be the year that sees Iran join the swelling group of the world's nuclear-armed nations. Or it might even be both.

In January, US President Barack Obama plans to push for the START pact, which expired in December 2009, to be renewed and for a reduction in the number of combat-ready nuclear warheads and launching equipment. Moscow is expected to agree to the proposals. Moreover, in May, the 189 countries that have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are scheduled to convene in New York, where the nuclear have-nots are expected to pressure nuclear states to reduce their stockpiles. The United States and its European allies are demanding, first, that all countries sign the pact's additional protocol, which would allow UN inspectors to carry out unannounced checks and, second, that any country that pulls out of the treaty (to date, only North Korea has done so, but some politicians in Tehran are threatening to do so) should not be allowed to hold on to nuclear material it purchased while a signatory to the treaty.

Furthermore, in February, there may be a new round of sanctions against Iran, though the Iranian leadership has pledged to not let itself be influenced by any such measures. Given such a situation, it becomes even more likely that Israel or the US could launch an airborne attack against Iranian nuclear facilities at some point during 2010. Such an attack would have unimaginable consequences on the Middle East and the rest of the world.

Can an African Team Win the 2010 World Cup?

In 2010, Africa will play host to the football world championships for the first time ever. But when the World Cup tournament kicks off in South Africa on June 11, much more than just golden trophies and bragging rights will be at stake. Teams from six African countries -- Algeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and South Africa -- will be playing in the tournament and fighting for the identity and pride of the entire continent.

Even half a century after gaining their independence from colonial powers, things are still going rather poorly for many African countries. Poverty levels are rising, and the economic gap with industrialized nations is widening. The football tournament is coming at exactly the right time. Africa wants to show not only that it deserves to host such events, but also that it can hold its own -- at least when it comes to football. Indeed, the sport could provide an alternative form of therapy -- a way for an entire continent to confront its feelings of inferiority. "Every African nation has its internal problems," former South African striker Shaun Bartlett recently told the BBC, "but football can do wonders for people."

Climate Hopes in Bonn

After the disappointing minimal consensus that emerged at the climate summit in Copenhagen, 2010 will be the decisive year in determing whether a common approach to combating global warming is possible. In June, environment ministers from around the world will meet in Bonn, Germany, where they hope to reach a preliminary agreement on whether a binding treaty for fighting climate change can be signed in December at a summit in Mexico City.

Two scenarios are possible: Either the United Nations' system of global governance on the issue of climate protection will collapse entirely, or the breakdown of the Copenhagen talks will lead them to redouble their efforts in order to prevent a further failure.

The role played by the US and China will be decisive. The world's two largest polluters are key to any international approach. Should Beijing and Washington not live up to their responsibility, then it will likely lead to an expiration of the Kyoto Protocol without a successor agreement.

At stake, in other words, is not just a solution to the global climate crisis, but rather the entire mechanism of global governance. If the countries of the world are unable to unite over what is perhaps the greatest challenge facing humanity, then greater polarization could ensue between the world's richest and poorest countries along with a radicalization of climate activists.

A Reduction in Subsidies for Europe's Farmers?

The European Union spends more of its budget on cereal farmers, cattle-breeders and sugar manufacturers than on any other issue facing the 27-member bloc. Fully 40 percent of the EU's €123 billion annual budget is devoured by agricultural subsidies. In 2006, the EU agreed to spend a great deal of this money in the future on research, education and environmental protection. This year the discussion will take place over whether concrete cuts in subsidies should be initiated.

The debate will be rife with conflict -- it is difficult to find another issue in the EU that is as controversial as argicultural policy. Already, two seemingly irreconcilable camps are forming. One side, led by Britain, wants to slash agricultural subsidies by at least one-third. But the agricultural front, led by France and backed to a large degree by Germany, rejects drastic cuts. They argue that the financial aid ensure Europe's independence from food imports. The battle threatens to lead to years of blockading in the EU -- and to a typically weak European compromise.

A Generation Change for the Middle East

In the Arab world, there will be discussions in 2010 about who will succeed the old men who rule three of the major Arab states. Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak, 81, denies that he is grooming his son Gamal, 46, to be his successor, but Gamal Mubarak's influence is growing. A banker by profession, Gamal Mubarak supports the economic liberalization of his country.

Saudi Arabia's aging King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, 85, appointed his brother Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, 76, as deputy prime minister in March 2009. Given that Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, 81, is seriously ill, the appointment is seen as a preliminary decision in favor of the powerful Nayef and his conservative agenda as the king's successor.

In Libya, Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, 37, is returning to the political stage after a period out of the spotlight. It is considered likely that he will succeed his father, Moammar Gadhafi, 67. The question is whether the colonel, who has been in power for 40 years, will show any interest in stepping down.

Show of Strength in Shanghai

Less than two years after the Beijing Olympics, China's Communist Party is putting on another gigantic spectacle: the World Expo in Shanghai. The aim of Expo 2010 is to showcase China -- both to the outside world and to its own citizens -- not only as an economic superpower, but also as a social model for the future. Some 70 million visitors are expected and the show will be to be larger and showier than any expo in the past.

The motto of Expo 2010 is "Better City -- Better Life." China wants to present itself as a pioneer of environmentally friendly urban development, sustainability and innovation. Construction work in the city has been going on for months, not only on the exhibition grounds but also to revive the city's infrastructure. The metro network is being expanded and the city's famous waterfront, the Bund, is being renovated. The Communist Party is spending the equivalent of $45 billion on the expo, despite the economic crisis. Hence 2010 could be the year in which the global balance of power shifts even further in the direction of Asia.


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