U.S. Keeps Foreign Ph.D.s

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By DAVID WESSEL

Most foreigners who came to the U.S. to earn doctorate degrees in science and engineering stayed on after graduation—at least until the recession began—refuting predictions that post-9/11 restrictions on immigrants or expanding opportunities in China and India would send more of them home.

Newly released data revealed that 62% of foreigners holding temporary visas who earned Ph.D.s in science and engineering at U.S. universities in 2002 were still in the U.S. in 2007, the latest year for which figures are available. Of those who graduated in 1997, 60% were still in the U.S. in 2007, according to the data compiled by the U.S. Energy Department's Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education for the National Science Foundation.

Foreigners account for about 40% of all science and engineering Ph.D. holders working in the U.S., and a larger fraction in engineering, math and computer fields. "Our ability to continue to attract and keep foreign scientists and engineers is critical to…increase investment in science and technology," Oak Ridge analyst Michael Finn said.

"Data for all available cohorts indicate that 'stay rates' of foreign science and engineering doctorate recipients in 2007 are slightly higher than they have been in recent years," Mr. Finn said. His findings, which use tax data to track graduates, cover the years before the U.S. plunged into a recession that damped job prospects in many U.S. industries and universities.

Other analysts see signs that recent foreign grads are increasingly likely to return home, particularly in today's weak job market. "I have no doubt that the 2009 data will show a dramatic shift," said Vivek Wadwha, executive in residence at Duke University's Pratt School of Engineering, who has been warning loudly about the threat that trend would pose to innovation in the U.S. In October 2008, Mr. Wadwha and others used Facebook to question 1,224 foreigners studying at U.S. institutions at all levels. More than half the Indians and 40% of the Chinese said they hoped to return home within five years.

Separate NSF surveys show the fraction of foreign Ph.D.s planning to stay in the U.S. dipped in the years following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attack and then rebounded. Nearly 80% of those with temporary visas surveyed in 2007 said they planned to stay; more than half had definite plans to do so.

Joy Ying Zhang, the son of a primary-school teacher and a college professor, left China in 1999 for Detroit's Wayne State University, where he arrived with two suitcases and $2,000 in cash. He later transferred to Carnegie Mellon University, which awarded him a Ph.D. in computer science in 2008.

Four or five of his friends have returned to China, he said, and he has discussed doing so. But Mr. Zhang, now a research assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon's Silicon Valley campus, has decided stay. "I have spent 10 years here already," he said. "It took me some time to get used to American life. Now, it'd be hard to get used to China. It's called 'reverse culture shock.' "

In recruiting for Carnegie Mellon, he finds young Chinese less eager to come to the U.S. than those of his generation. "Life in China is getting better. There are research alternatives in China—like Microsoft China," he said. "They can get good mentoring and advice there, instead of coming to the U.S."

In 2007, foreign citizens accounted for 16,022 of the Ph.D.s awarded in science and engineering in the U.S., or 46% of the total, according to the Oak Ridge data. In contrast, the class of 1997 had 12,966 foreigners, or 30% of the total.

Graduates of Ph.D. programs in the physical sciences and computer science are more likely to remain in the U.S. than those in other fields, Mr. Finn said. Those programs are popular with Chinese and Indian students, who are more likely to remain in the U.S. than those from Taiwan, South Korea and Western Europe. Among 2002 graduates, 92% of the Chinese and 81% of the Indians were in the U.S. after five years; in contrast, 41% of South Koreans and 52% of Germans were.

Aranyak Mehta, 31, came from India nearly a decade ago to study algorithms at Georgia Institute of Technology and earned a Ph.D. in 2005. Today, he is a research scientist at Google—and planning, for now, to remain in the U.S. "There's always a trade-off—family, culture, and all that," he said. "One of the most important things with an academic background is the work that you do, and is it exciting?"

Using the LinkedIn online network, Mr. Wadhwa identified 1,203 skilled Indians and Chinese who had returned home. Three-quarters said visa issues weren't a factor. Rather, career opportunities, quality-of-life concerns and family ties were major factors. Some 70% of the Chinese and 61% of the Indians said opportunities for professional advancement were better at home.

The NSF recently said the number of foreign science and engineering students enrolled in graduate programs of all types hit 158,430 in April 2009, up 8% from the year before.