Every quarter, NIDA releases a poll on the performance of the Prime Minister and the government. BP blogged on the previous quarter from December 2011 here and the January-March 2012 quarter here.
There is a new NIDA Poll which surveyed 1,227 people nationwide between June 26-29 which was released July 2. The title of the poll is “Satisfaction with the government and the Prime Minister, 3rd poll (between April-June 2012)” (“ความพึงพอใจต่อผลงานรัฐบาลและนายกรัฐมนตรี ครั้งที่ 3” (ระหว่างเดือนเมษายน – มถิุนายน 2555)).
Unlike some polls, NIDA provides full access to survey data methodology so BP has included this at the end of this post (as noted below they have gone for equal geographic distribution by region which doesn’t reflect the population of each region).*
NOTE: All references to Bangkok include references to Bangkok and the surrounding provinces.
1. Satisfaction that the people have towards the Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (ความพึงพอใจของประชาชนต่อตัวนายกรัฐมนตรี “นางสาวยิ่งลักษณ์ ชินวัตร”). Below is the breakdown by region:
1.1 Previous polls only have the “satisfied” number and BP assumed the remaining were “not satisfied”, but in reality there is the ‘no opinion’ as well. The total figure above is unweighted – see 1.2 below.
Now, the “satisfied” figures for July 2012, BP has found NIDA polls on the performance of former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his government from October 2009-May 2010 and have included those, the October-December 2011, and January-March 2012 (released in April 2012) NIDA polls on the Yingluck government below:
Source: Aug 09-May 10 (DOC); December 2011 (HTML and PDF); April 2012 (HTML and PDF); June 2012 (HTML and PDF)
1.2. To explain the weighted and population fields, the poll surveyed 1,227 people nationwide, but it did so equally by region regardless of the population of that region which resulted in the number of people being surveyed as follows: Bangkok 248, Central 248, North 242, Northeast 245, and South 244.
Mahidol University has a population gazette - used January 2011 figures – which provides the population of each region and so the “Pop” field in BP’s chart above is the percentage of Thailand’s total population which is in that region. For the “Weighted” field, the key figure is the total of 64.1% which is the adjusted figure that comes out when you weigh the July 12 figures by the percentage of the population of each region. This means that Yingluck has a 64.1% approval rating which is a decrease from 71.38% in April.
This is more reflective than the unweighted nationwide figure of 59.98% which you get when you add the July 2012 figures together and divide by 5 with no adjustment made for population.** BP hasn’t adjusted the Democrat figures downwards as BP found no mention in the NIDA source of the geographical breakdown for the previous polls - from BP’s experience with NIDA polls and looking at the survey data from the elections, they were very accurate with their geographical breakdown (see here and here) – so it would be unfair to adjust the Democrat government ratings (they would likely go down slightly given the Democrats do better in the South which has a smaller population than the Northeast). The unweighted figures show a decrease from 68.5% to 59.98%. This is because Yingluck’s biggest decrease in support is in the South (13% of population). She has also suffered decline in support in the North, and the Central Regions although has remained almost the same in Bangkok and the Northeast.
Note: The individual regional figures for December 11, April 12, July 12 are still accurate. It is only the total figures which aren’t reflective.
2. Percentage of people who are satisfied with the performance of Yingluck government in solving various problems (ร้อยละของประชาชนที่พึงพอใจต่อการแก้ไขปัญหาด้านต่างๆ ของรัฐบาลนางสาวยิ่งลักษณ์ ชินวัตร)
2.1 Same as above, we have the figures for August 2009 and May 2010 under Abhisit and then December 2011, April 2012 and July 2012 under Yingluck (with the latter three including weighted scores). Below are the “satisfied” numbers:
BP: So looking at the weighted numbers, satisfaction over government action on “drugs” is the same, the economy is up slightly, the same with corruption and the Deep South. Unsurprisingly, on the political conflict/unity, it is way down.
Now, below you will see breakdown of the above by region and with “satisfied”, “not satisfied”, and “no opinion” -with the total figure not being weighted.
2.2 On drugs/vices
BP: Even in the South, “satisfied” and “not satisfied” are the same. Interestingly, the government gets its highest score from Bangkok (and surrounding provinces)
2.3 On the economy/living costs/unemployment
BP: This is higher than the Isan Poll for the Northeast - 52% in the Isan poll vs 67% here – although this question is broader. It asks not just about the economy, but also about living costs and unemployment. This could explain the difference.
Actually, the result is interesting when you think of the party vote in the 2011 election. Then, Puea Thai got 68% in the Northeast (67% here), the Central Region was 42% (around 44% here), the North was 55% (59% here). The major difference is the South where Puea Thai only got 8%, but gets 33% here.
2.4 On political conflict/unity/protests
2.5 On solving the problems in the Deep South
2.6 On solving Corruption
3. Points for performance of the Yingluck government (คะแนนผลงานโดยรวมของรัฐบาลนางสาวยิ่งลักษณ์ ชินวัตร).
This was one is rather short as NIDA don’t have a regional breakdown so no chart. There has been a drop from 6.24 in December (unweighted) to 6.23 in April (unweighted) to 6.17 now.
BP: You can say a gradual decline, but then if you were to convert in % terms it would be from 62.4% to 62.3% to 61.7% which is well within the margin of error. Hence, there may not have been a decline at all.
*Survey data methodology:
Region: Bangkok 248, Central 248, North 242, Northeast 245, and South 244
Sex: Males 54%; Females 46%
Age:
15-20 (2.53%)
21-26 (12.63%)
27-32 (17.36%)
33-38 (15.48%)
39-44 (14.34%)
45-49 (10.51%)
50-55 (12.96%)
56+ (14.18%)
BP: As with most polls, this seems to under-represent those aged over 56 although not as badly as most polls. This is probably because these people are more likely to be at home and are harder to survey.
Education Status :
Less than Bachelor’s (69.68%)
Bachelor’s degree or equivalent (26.98)%
Higher than Bachelor’s degree (3.34%)
Employment Status:
Students (7.99%)
Civil Servant/state enterprise (12.88%)
Private company employee (20.05%)
General contractor/labor (13.61)
Self-employed (7.91%)
Housewife/house-husband (8.64%)
Trader (14.51%)
Retired (.65%)
Farmers (11.98%)
Unemployed (1.79%)
BP: Again, There are more retired people that this, but this is the nature of most polls (i.e as they are mostly at home and hence more difficult to survey).
Income (monthly):
Less than 5,00 (31.70%)
5,001-10,000 (30.64%)
10,001-20,000 (20.95%)
20,001-30,000 (7.82%)
30,001-40,000 (3.42%)
40,001-50,000 (1.71%)
More than 50,000 (3.75%)
**BP couldn’t find an explanation that NIDA had already adjusted the regional ratings by population. There is mention of the SE Mean figure but the Poll itself doesn’t say that NIDA has already adjusted the ratings and given that the total figure is simply reached by adding up the regional ratings and dividing by 5, BP has to assume NIDA hasn’t. The alternative is that NIDA has adjusted the regional ratings which would be a little bizarre if they did so as the regional ratings are accurate, the only figure you need to adjust is the total.
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