By Karin Brulliard
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, July 27, 2009
PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria -- Signs of harmony seem to be budding in Nigeria's conflict-plagued Niger Delta region amid a government offer of amnesty to rebels and a leading militant group's halt to its attacks and kidnappings. But here in the swampy heart of the oil-rich but impoverished delta, many analysts and observers warn that the calm could be a prelude to all-out war.
Two weeks before the government is set to begin disarming as many as 10,000 militants in a 60-day amnesty program, it has revealed little about how it will reintegrate participants into society or address the demands for increased development and oil revenue that Niger Delta militants say drive their campaign of attacking oil installations and holding foreigners hostage.
The offer's vagueness is fueling fears that it will fail to lure militants and instead trigger a full-scale military offensive that could ensnare civilians living on the remote creeks where militants keep their camps.
"This is a window of opportunity," said Ogbonna Nwuke, a government commissioner in one of the Niger Delta states. "But the alternative, in my view, will be increased military operations by the Nigerian government. When that happens, ordinary men, women and children will be at risk . . . these are the things that happen at war."
The fate of this restive region, its lush land crisscrossed with creeks and oil pipelines, is of vital importance to stability in West Africa and to U.S. energy security. Sabotage by a web of militant groups has cut Nigeria's oil production by nearly one-half since 2006, but the nation remains the fifth-greatest oil supplier to the United States, which is turning more to Africa as it seeks to decrease its dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, the principal militant group known as MEND, launched a guerrilla-style battle three years ago. It attacks oil facilities and kidnaps foreign oil workers in what it calls a crusade to bring development to a region whose residents have enjoyed few of the riches from 50 years of oil production.
But the militants also steal and sell oil, and many began their careers as thugs hired by corrupt Niger Delta politicians to ensure electoral victory through intimidation. Most analysts regard them more as cash-hungry gangs -- often in cahoots with politicians and military members -- than freedom fighters.
"None of these people, not MEND, not the military leaders, not the politicians . . . none of them really represents the interests of the people in the delta," said a Western diplomat in Nigeria's capital, Abuja. "Too many people don't have an interest in settling" the crisis.
Starting Aug. 6, the government says it will give cash, job training and pardons to militants who turn in weapons. Earlier this month, officials granted one MEND demand by releasing the group's leader, Henry Okah, who was jailed on treason and weapons-trafficking charges.
Okah's release prompted MEND to declare a 60-day cease-fire and, on Monday, to free its last six hostages. But the group, which wants a military-led security task force to withdraw from the delta, has shunned the amnesty offer.
The developments followed shows of force by the government and the militants in a conflict that has grown increasingly bloody and aggressive. In May, after rebel attacks killed one soldier and left 18 missing, the task force bombed militant camps in an offensive it says scattered fighters. Human rights groups said the bombings displaced and killed hundreds, perhaps thousands, of civilians. Those claims have not been substantiated.
Two weeks ago, MEND attacked an oil installation several states away, near Lagos, the nation's largest city, in a brazen display of power that killed eight guards. The group said this week that it would "revisit" any facilities it destroyed if they were repaired.
"The current offer does not make any reference whatsoever to the root issues," Jomo Gbomo, a MEND spokesman, said in an e-mail, adding that the group expects renewed military offensives. "The African adage that when two elephants fight it is the grass that suffers will ring true when the oil industry suffers a total collapse should such an attack on us occur."
Nigeria, which derives 90 percent of its foreign export earnings from oil, insists that its amnesty offer is a sincere peace effort. But it has also said that it would not cede to rebel demands and that it was prepared to take necessary action to curb the conflict, comments, some observers say, that show the military is eager to prove its might.
"These people are not real agitators. They are just bandits, criminals," Col. Rabe Abubakar, a spokesman for a Niger Delta military task force, said in an interview in the delta city of Warri. "For how long would this kind of thing go on in a normal country? I say no, we cannot allow this thing to continue."
Abubakar declined to speculate on the response if militants do not take the amnesty offer, which he insisted would work.
Previous government attempts to end the crisis have resulted in more bureaucracy than action, analysts say. Last fall, the government convened a "technical committee" on the Niger Delta, which recommended an amnesty and disarmament program facilitated by a third party, as well as increased oil revenue allocation and boosted infrastructure in delta states.
But the committee's leader, human rights activist and attorney Ledum Mitee, said he had to seek outside funding to even print the report, which he said he is not even sure government officials read.
In Port Harcourt, residents are wearily hoping that this attempt at peace succeeds.
"We pray it works, because the militants have disturbed us greatly," said Anthony Ejirimuo, a driver who said he lost clients as nervous oil companies pulled out foreign workers. "They say they are representing the people. Who sent them? They are only representing their own pockets."
