Malaysiakini - DAP Wins Sibu By-election

DAP wins Sibu, majority 398

LIVE REPORTS [PHOTO GALLERY] Earlier reports Small, big and giant steps for Pakatan 'Political tsunami' finally reaches East M'sia A 'historic' victory, says Kit Siang 11.30pm: Speaking at a press conference, a beaming Wong Ho Leng says: "This victory is one small step in Sibu, one big step to (state administrative capital) Petrajaya, and one giant step to Putajaya." Robert Lau, meanwhile, expresses sadness: "I'm sad, because Sibu is going to lose out on a lot of things. I have said in my campaign that if we lose, we lose the confidence of the federal government. "But my heart is still with the people of Sibu and I will serve them in whatever capacity that I can," says the SUPP leader. 11.10pm: A crowd of 3,000 gather outside the main tally centre at Dewan Suarah to celebrate DAP's victory in Sibu. They shout, "Dacing tipu". Independent Narawi Haron forfeited his RM10,000 deposit for failing to obtain at least one-eighth of the total vote cast. The Election Commission has revised the voter turnout. It now says the turnout was 70% instead of 59.86% (which is higher than the 68% in the 2008 general elections). Votes cast - 37,919 votes Turnout - 70% Spoilt votes - 395 votes Majority - 398 votes Postal votes - 2,429 votes 10.58pm: Election Commission makes official announcement: DAP - 18,845 BN - 18,447 Ind -232 Majority - 398 The two-hour delay in the announcement of the result was due to a dispute in the postal ballots where 208 votes were rejected. This however did not change the final result. According to the EC, the dispute was over the validity of witnesses' signature for postal votes. DAP leaders claimed that there is a discrepancy in the postal vote tally between what they have and the Election Commission's, which caused much anxiety among the opposition that their win could be "stolen". The final result of the postal ballots: DAP - 70 BN - 2,323 Ind - 36 Rejected postal votes - 208 10.55pm: Election Commission is expected to announce that DAP has won the Sibu by-election with a majority of 398. On the spot analysis: Pakatan Rakyat has managed to reverse its series of losses (Bagan Pinang and Hulu Selangor) with this win in Sibu. Of the 11 by-election since March 2008, Pakatan has won eight while BN three. Sibu is also Pakatan's first victory in East Malaysia (PKR lost in Batang Ai in April last year). For DAP, this is the first by-election which the party has won in 13 years. Sibu will be the party's second parliamentary seat in Sarawak to its existing Bandar Kuching. With the defeat in Sibu, BN may delay the Sarawak state election to next year. Sarawak will need to call the state polls by middle of next year. 10.35pm: It appears that there was some minor dispute over the postal ballots. However, it is learnt that the Election Commission will be announcing the result soon. It is almost certain that DAP has won this closely fought by-election by between 300 and 400 votes. 10.30pm: SUPP Sibu chief Wong Soon Koh at Wisma Sanyan criticised Lim Guan Eng for acting rude by "leading people to come to 'kacau'." "This is not a healthy culture," he said. Robert Lau is also reported to be dissatisfied that Lim and four other DAP members met with the SPR officer without the presence of Barisan people. They said they will "consider taking the election dispute to court." 10.15pm: At the main tally centre in Dewan Suarah, two SUPP officials are meeting with returning officer Wong See Meng. It is believed that they are discussing about the delay in the announcing of postal vote results. They are later joined by DAP officials Ng Wei Aik, Lim Lip Eng and Ronnie Liu. It is still raining in Sibu. The rain began about two hours ago. Supporters from both sides, many of them holding umbrellas, are waiting calmly outside Dewan Suarah. 10.10pm: Election Commission chief Abdul Aziz Yusof tells Malaysiakini in an SMS message that the postal ballots Form 15 is on its way to the main tally centre in Dewan Suarah. "EC is waiting for the official postal ballot result," he says. Meanwhile, EC deputy chief Wan Ahmad Wan Omar says the commission will explain the delay soon. "I'll explain after we announce the result shortly," he tells Malaysiakini. 10.09pm: All top DAP leaders are waiting at Wisma Sanyan, where the postal ballots were counted. Lim Guan Eng tells Malaysiakini that he is worried “something suspicious could be going on” and he hopes that the Election Commission officials can release the Form 15, a document which certifies the final result of the postal ballots. Should it be true that BN has won the postal votes by a margin of 2,300, then DAP will be declared the winner of the Sibu by-election with a tissue-thin majority of 300 votes. It is confirmed that Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin has returned to Kuala Lumpur. There is no movement at the main tally centre in Dewan Suarah in Sibu. The official tally still indicates that 16 boxes, including the postal votes, are yet to be sent to be included in the final result. 9.50pm: DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang questions the hold-up in the Election Commission's announcement of the 2,571 postal ballots. "The postal ballot counting started at 5.30pm and finished at 8.30pm." He asks why there is more than an hour delay in the announcement of results. "Up to some trick?" he wonders aloud. 9.35pm: The counting of postal votes has ended. However, DAP scrutineers are unable to get Form 15 - the official tally signed by the returning officer. It is understood that BN has won 2,300 out of a total 2,571 postal votes. This will translate into a DAP victory with a margin of 300 votes. DAP candidate Wong Ho Leng refuses to claim victory as yet. "I don't want comment. Please wait for the official announcement," he told Malaysiakini. 9.24pm: The final result may not be announced anytime soon. The 2,571 postal votes are still being counted. All DAP leaders leave the party's operations room in Sibu for Wisma Sanyan where the postal votes are being tallied. DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang wants to know what is holding up the Election Commission from announcing the by-election result. 9.21pm: Election Commission chief Abdul Aziz Yusof sends a SMS message to Malaysiakini saying that the voter turnout "could be more than 60 percent". Malaysiakini has earlier asked him to confirm whether the voter turnout was 59.86% as announced by the EC a few hours ago. 9.10pm: Penang Chief Minister and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng and other party leaders are set to leave the party's operations room in Sibu. But instead of going to main tally centre at Dewan Suarah, they plan to go to Wisma Sanyan, where the postal votes are being counted. 8.57pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, BN has reduced DAP's lead down to 2,590 votes. A total of 109 out of 110 polling streams have been counted thus far. DAP - 18,570 BN - 15,980 Ind - 201 Majority - 2,590 On the spot analysis: Only one polling stream and 2,571 postal votes yet to be included. BN is expected to win over 90% of these votes but will it be enough for it to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat? 8.40pm: An umbrella revolution is swelling outside of the main tally centre at Dewan Suarah, with 200 people standing in the rain to show their support for DAP's Wong Ho Leng. Around 200 cops estimated in area, but no untoward incidents so far. No top leaders from either BN or Pakatan Rakyat are there at the moment. 8.33pm: DAP members and some leaders at its Sibu operations room are celebrating, but top party leaders are still waiting for confirmation and refuse to declare victory. 8.14pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has increased its lead to 3,944 votes. A total of 103 out of 110 polling streams have been counted thus far. DAP - 18,211 BN - 14,267 Ind - 138 Majority - 3,944 Postal votes are still being counted. In addition, no results yet to come in from BN stronghold Kg Ilir Nangka. In the 2008 general elections, DAP lost by 1,272 votes in Kg Ilir Nangka and 2,571 in postal votes. However, two DAP MPs - Anthony Loke and Jeff Ooi - have claimed victory. "Sibu Pakatan Rakyat set to win by wafer-thin majority... probably less than one hundred!" says Loke in his tweet message. On the spot analysis: DAP is close to victory but it is still too close to call. By all estimates, the margin of victory will be in the hundreds. 8.13pm: A crowd of supporters stand with umbrellas in the rain outside the counting centre compound, chanting "Wong Ho Leng" (DAP candidate) off and on as they wait for the official result to be announced. The projector outside the centre however has gone offline, and no updates available so far. 8.10pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has increased its lead to 3,279 votes. About 95.5% of votes have been counted so far. DAP - 17,120 BN - 13,841 Ind - 137 Majority - 3,279 8.04pm: Unconfirmed reports on the final few thousand votes - DAP lost Malay/Melanau-majority Ilir Nangka by 1,354 votes but won Chinese-majority Oya Lane by 665. It now hinges on the 2,571 postal votes. If BN can win 2,441 of these postal votes, which is possible, it will win the by-election. The margin of victory will be less than 100 votes. 7.58pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has increased its lead to 3,130 votes. About 93.9% of votes have been counted so far. DAP - 16,786 BN - 13,656 Ind - 136 Majority - 3,130 7.52pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has increased its lead to 3,048 votes. About 92.6% of votes have been counted so far. DAP - 16,538 BN - 13,490 Ind - 136 Majority - 3,048 DAP leaders and supporters, who are watching the unofficial results displayed by a LCD projector, are biting their nails. On the spot analysis: BN stronghold Kg Ilir Nangka and postal votes still yet to be announced. In the 2008 general elections, DAP lost by 1,272 votes in Kg Ilir Nangka and 2,571 in postal votes. 7.40pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP's lead breaks the 3,000 mark for the first time - it is now 3,022 votes. About 90.5% of votes have been counted so far. DAP - 16,178 BN - 13,156 Ind - 135 Majority - 3,022 On the spot analysis: DAP appears close to victory, but with postal votes and a key Malay/Melanau area yet to be tallied, BN can still win this by-election. Whatever the result, it will be close either way. 7.35pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has again increased its lead to 2,920 votes. About 90% of votes have been counted so far. DAP - 15,981 BN - 13,061 Ind - 134 Majority - 2,920 7.30pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has again increased its lead to 2,817 votes. About 87% of votes have been counted so far. DAP - 15,655 BN - 12,838 Ind - 132 Majority - 2,817 On the spot analysis: The 2,571 postal votes are now being counted. This is where BN is banking on clawing back into lead. In the 2008 general elections, SUPP won 94% of the postal votes. 7.15pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has again increased its lead to 2,236 votes. About 81% of votes have been counted so far. DAP - 14,283 BN - 12,047 Ind - 129 Majority - 2,236 7.13pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, BN has narrowed DAP's lead to 1,577 votes. About 75% of votes have been counted so far. DAP - 12,966 BN - 11,389 Ind - 126 Majority - 1,577 7.07pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has further increased its lead to 2,091. About 67% of votes have been counted so far. DAP - 11,941 BN - 9,850 Ind - 99 Majority - 2,091 On the spot analysis: BN stronghold Kg Ilir Nangka and postal votes yet to be announced. In the 2008 general elections, DAP lost by 1,272 votes in Kg Ilir Nangka and 2,571 in postal votes. In addition, also yet to be counted is Rejang Park, a major DAP stronghold. 7.02pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has further increased its lead to 1,544. So far, 66 out of 110 polling streams, or about 62% of votes, have been counted. DAP - 10,773 BN - 9,229 Ind - 97 Majority - 1,544 On the spot analysis It appears that DAP has benefitted from a slight swing of Chinese voters. However, there is no change in Iban and Malay/Melanau vote. Indeed, BN could have won more votes from these two groups. DAP will need to a sizable lead if it is to win this by-election as it is expected that BN will get the lion share of the 2,537 postal votes, which are yet to be counted. According to DAP sources, they won in all Chinese-majority polling streams but the turnout was low, especially among young voters. MCA Youth chief Wee Ka Siong says in a tweet that DAP has won over 66% of the Chinese votes. BN will need to bag at least 80% of the Malay/Melanau vote to win this by-election. 6.50pm: Rain starts to fall in Sibu as ballot boxes continue to stream into the counting centre at the main tally centre in Dewan Suarah. A crowd of onlookers has swelled to about 100 people in surrounding shops, mostly curious about the hive of activity at the hall. 6.46pm: The Election Commission announces that the voter turnout for today's by-election is 59.86% or 32,742 voters. The total in postal votes are 2,537. 6.42pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has further increased its lead to 914. So far, 59 out of 110 polling streams, or about 54% of votes, have been counted. DAP - 9,188 BN - 8,274 Ind - 89 Majority - 914 6.38pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has increased its lead to 838. So far, 57 out of 110 polling streams, or about 52% of votes, have been counted. DAP - 8,888 BN - 8,050 Ind - 87 Majority - 838 6.35pm: EC deputy chairman Wan Ahmad Wan Omar is chairing a closed-door meeting to discuss an objection raised by DAP candidate Wong Ho Leng over discrepancies in postal votes. Dapsy chief Anthony Loke said the objection was over inconsistencies in signatures of witnesses, and DAP are claiming fraud. "The EC are not happy about it. We don't know what the intend to do," Loke said when contacted through SMS. It is understood that Wong has walked out of the postal votes counting centre but no decision has been announced yet by the EC. 6.24pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP is leading for the first time as the Chinese-majority areas are being counted. DAP - 7,026 BN - 6,243 Ind - 52 Majority - 783 So far, 44 out of 110 polling streams, or about 43% of votes, have been counted. "It's a clear sign that Chinese votes have swung in favour of us," says DAP leader Anthony Loke. "The question is whether this is enough to carry us through." DAP sources say that ballot boxes of Malay/Melanau areas yet to be counted. They comprise 10.5% of the Sibu electorate. Also the estimated 2,000 postal votes, where BN is expected to win over 90% of the votes, are not factored in yet. 6.16pm: A crowd of 150 gather at the DAP operation room in Sibu. As the unofficial results stream in, the crowd cheer. 6.09pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, BN is leading by 1,869 votes. So far, 26 out of 110 polling streams, or about 20% of votes, have been counted. BN - 4,303 DAP - 2,434 Ind - 41 Majority - 1,869 6.01pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, BN is leading by 1,957 votes. So far, 25 out of 110 polling streams, or about 20% of votes, have been counted. BN - 4,205 DAP - 2,248 Ind - 41 Majority - 1,957 It appears that DAP is slowing bridging the gap as polling streams from Chinese-majority areas are now being counted. 5.50pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, BN is leading by 1,985 votes. So far, 22 out of 110 polling streams, or about 18% of votes, have been counted. BN - 3,804 DAP - 1,819 Ind - 37 Majority - 1,985 EC chair Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof says he was not satisfied with the lower voter turnout which fell lower than the 67% recorded in the 2008 general election. Meanwhile, Sibu police chief ACP Shafie Ismail says polling went smoothly except for a minor incidents of heckling among supporters of the contesting parties. 5.40pm: A few ballot boxes arrive at main tally centre in Dewan Suarah. Dark storm clouds and strong winds coming in, heavy rain expected in Sibu. 5.25pm: Election Commission workers are seen going into the main tally centre at Dewan Suarah in Sibu town. This is where all the votes from the 54 polling centres in today's by-election are tallied. The final result will be announced by the returning officer later tonight. DAP sources say the party appeared to have performed worse in Iban areas compared to the 2008 general election. 5.05pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, BN has increased its lead to 2,097 votes. So far, 19 out of 110 polling streams, or about 13% of votes, have been counted. BN - 3,493 DAP - 1,396 Ind - 33 Majority - 2,097 5pm: The remaining 22 polling stations close. Another 23 pollings stations had closed earlier and counting is in progress. 4.50pm: A total of 31,119 have voted by 4pm. Voter turnout is 56.9% with one hour to go before the closing of the remaining 22 polling stations. The voter turnout is expected to be far below the 68% in the 2008 general elections. 4.30pm: According to the latest unofficial tally in the polling stations which have closed early, BN has increased its lead to 1,930 votes. So far, 16 out of 110 polling streams have been counted. BN - 2,959 DAP - 1,029 Ind - 18 Majority - 1,930 Of the 16 polling streams counted, at least 10 are from Iban areas where DAP is expected to lose. Iban comprise 4.29pm: Umno vice-president Shafie Apdal (left in pix) denies a scuffle ever occurred at Sekolah Kebangsaan Sg Aup as alleged by DAP MP for Bakri Er Teck Hwa (see below - 12.30pm). “There wasn't a scuffle (as reported). I was there (to request the DAP supporters) to disperse. There was no scuffle,” the minister told Malaysiakini. Shafie said that he was there with a group of BN supporters. “The MP (Er) was in the middle of the road distributing leaflets to voters. That can't happen,” said the Umno vice-president, referring to election laws against campaigning on polling day. “I told him (Er) that he wasn't allowed to do such a thing. In the election laws, it is prohibited. As a member of Parliament, he should know the laws. 4.20pm: According to the latest unofficial tally in the polling stations which have closed early, DAP is trailing by 1,784 votes. BN - 2,808 DAP - 1,024 Ind - 18 Majority - 1,784 It is still too early to spot the trend as the result is from 15 polling streams out of 110 polling streams in areas which BN is expected to do well. 4.14pm: DAP youth chief Anthony Loke tweets about his altercation with EC officials tallying the votes. He describes them, particularly those coming from Kuala Lumpur, as being “rude” and accusing them of “harassing” the DAP polling agent for “complaining too much.” They are upset because, fighting “for every vote,” the agent is questioning too much. To the EC officer's complaint that the agent is being 'leceh' (demanding), Loke says he “shot back” with the words: “Don't we have rights to complain? Dah biasa makan gaji buta!” ('You've become used to earning an easy salary!'). 3.40pm: According to latest unofficial results from 12 polling stations which has closed, DAP is trailing by 1,029 votes. BN - 1,839 DAP - 810 Ind - 15 Majority - 1,029

Related articles by Zemanta

• Malaysian Opposition Wins Election (online.wsj.com)
• Postal ballots are not the same as postal vote application forms (libdemvoice.org)

Showdown in Sibu

Image via Wikipedia

Sibu’s new political awakening

By Bridget Welsh | Malaysiakini

Tomorrow is polling day in Sibu. After days of quiet campaigning, there is now finally a growing sense of excitement. This non-political town is having a national awakening as both sides have gone all out to win voters over.

In Sibu square, BN leaders are making earnest appeals to the voters, while the big guns of the Pakatan Rakyat are gearing up for a final ceramah tonight and concentrating their day’s activities in the pivotal Iban areas.

Prime Minister Najib Razak is making a personal gamble by returning for the second time in the campaign period to appeal for votes, gambling that his popularity wins support.

Traditionally, local factors and perceptions have shaped the outcome in this constituency of 54,695 voters, and they are still relevant. Increasingly, however, national concerns are swaying voters as Sibuans are recognising their important role in the country’s future. And they are feeling a sense of empowerment never felt before.

?In this final lap, the opposition is gaining ground in a contest that was initially firm in the hands of the BN. The DAP, working with its Pakatan partners, now has a real fighting chance.

The BN on its part is doling out goodies, making promises and pushing its resources to the maximum for a win. The cool breeze from the Rajang River and a morning drizzle belies the real political heat on the ground.

Stark choices

Sibu voters are faced with contrasting choices for this campaign. Foremost is the choice to vote for money, or vote for change.

It is a ‘buy-election’ after all and in Sarawak, money politics are the norm. The promises for school funding, flood allocation, new land lease rates (announced last night) are all part and parcel of election promises.

To this end, BN has the advantage of access to three sources of financial muscle: access to both federal and state resources, as well as the personal resources of the candidate.

?Voters have been given ‘grants’ of RM600, longhouse tuai heads allocated RM10,000 to RM20,000 to sway residents, and ordinary voters across the races promised RM100 as an advance on a possible victory, with more cash to come. It is important to understand that these sums are not small change for many impoverished voters.

The combination of development promises – for real problems such as flooding and education – and inflows of cash present difficult choices for voters, particularly those who are less enthusiastic about the ability of the opposition to deliver substantive change.

On its part, the opposition has urged Sibuans to vote with their conscience, appealing for the need for a stronger opposition voice in government, and suggesting that a vote for the opposition will in fact bring about more engagement and resources from federal and state leaders.

The latter is doubtful as neglect of this town is deep-seated, but the reality is that the contrast in approach is becoming sharper as the campaign evolves.

BN corners itself

The BN has slowly created its own dichotomy in this campaign: a vote for delivery or vote for discussion.

Their main attack on the opposition appeals to the pragmatism of Sibuans. In their mantra label on the opposition as “all talk, no walk”, they are focusing on deliverables. This message is couched subtly in a framework that aims to discredit the opposition as a viable coalition partnership and undermine its struggling leadership.

?The defections of PKR members, the Islamic state discussion about the DAP’s partnership with PAS, the court case against Anwar Ibrahim all comprise this frontal attack on the opposition.

Many Sibuans hold deep suspicions of West Malaysia and lack familiarity with national players, and this strategy has confused many voters. This tactic to muddying the waters isn’t quite as muddy as the Rajang River, but it has gained traction as the BN has appealed for support as the prime candidate for effective governance.

Ironically, this approach backfires on BN as it opens the ruling coalition to serious questions about what it has delivered in Sibu over the past years. The decades of dire neglect in the state increase the BN’s vulnerability.

SUPP in particular is seen as weak and ineffective, and this has forced the BN to turn to Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud (who has considerable political baggage from his 29 years in office) and national leaders such as Najib in framing its engagement with the town.

For the opposition, they face a serious challenge of delivering on their promises, and have been cautious in their promises of deliverables. That caution went out the window last night in the final appeal to make sure that Sibu voters have a national voice.

Voters here are reflecting on the difficult choice of whether they want concrete deliverables or a voice challenging the lack of deliverables.

Local loyalties

?These choices are compounded by a difficult decision over the two local boys: the local candidates. It is, after all, a small town with personal and professional ties to both candidates – Robert Lau Hui Yew (left) and Wong Ho Leng (right).

The SUPP is appealing the electorate to vote for the legacy of the late Robert Lau, to remind voters of the boom years and the former tycoon’s contribution to the town.

Meanwhile the DAP has focused on the record of Wong Ho Leng as a fighter against injustice.

The candidates have thus far acted responsibly and avoided personal attacks. The mud in Sibu has stayed in the river instead of being thrown on the campaign trail. This speaks to the shared fraternity and civility of both candidates – both lawyers in a small town – and the quiet dignity of Sibuans in how they conduct their daily lives.

This does not mean that there have not been the occasional swipes, as voters themselves have contrasted the dichotomy of rich and poor, in the upbringing of the SUPP and DAP candidate respectfully.

Both men have baggage, but Robert Lau Jr’s lack of political experience and engagement with the electorate, broadly as well as his party’s extremely poor machinery, has arguably been more weight to carry around. He has yet to capitalise effectively on his strengths as a member of a powerful tycoon family.

Najib’s personal contest

As the awakening evolved in Sibu, there is a growing recognition of the national stakes. Like Hulu Selangor, Najib has made this a personal contest. He has taken a bold risk by putting his credibility on the line.

?This shows some degree of daring from a man who has been touted as overly cautious, and signifies how important this contest in a remote town in Borneo means for his leadership. It also shows a degree of increasing confidence, riding on the impressive first quarter economic growth of 10.1 percent.

The reality is that Najib cannot implement needed economic reforms without a mandate, and cannot introduce a strong economic plan, devoid of a simplistic debate over affirmative action and the NEP, without a clear decisive win.

For Pakatan, this contest has also had real meaning, as a victory here opens up the possibility of winning national power. They desperately need East Malaysian seats to offset PKR defections in West Malaysia to build a credible national alternative.

Voters in Sibu are beginning to understand this difficult choice – to give a mandate to Najib or to open further opportunities for an opposition which badly needs positive momentum.

Deciding factors

Given the choices for voters, it is thus important to lay out what will shape the outcome on this last day.

1) Changing of the playing field

Little attention has been placed on what may prove ultimately decisive: the changing of election dynamics in Sibu.

The movement of one army battalion out of the constituency – lowering the votes usually given the BN – and the relocation of one major pro-DAP Chinese polling station to the neighbouring Lanang constituency, involves potentially over 3,000 votes.

?The movement favours the BN overall, although it may backfire as it tightens the remaining contests. This voter relocation is important in this close contest, and will put pressure on the need for a high turnout on all sides.

The opposition has strengthened its machinery, and now for the first time can assign polling station agents to areas never covered before – some with previous 99 percent victory to BN. This accountability improves the process overall.

Many voters, however, remain fearful their votes are not secret despite the Election Commission’s remarks yesterday which reaffirmed a fair process. Insecurity on the part of many voters remains, as rumours of phantom voters persist.

Tomorrow, the integrity of the election process will be put to the test and it will be the responsibility of the EC to assure that the votes of Sibuans are genuinely and fairly counted.

2) Voter turnout and mobilisation

Every vote will count. This constituency has always had low turnout, less than 70 percent in parliamentary contests, given the high numbers of voters living in remote areas and their “non-political” orientation.

Voter turnout in this race will be very important. Who and how many people come to the polls will determine the outcome.

A high voter turnout in the Malay and Iban areas will favour the BN, where it has traditionally won over 80 percent of the votes. DAP needs the Chinese voters to show up in droves, as they have secured more than 62 percent of their vote in the past.

?I predict that the final majority will be small, less than 3,000 for either side, and thus less than 10 percent of the voters could shape the final outcome.

The major contest now is winning over fence-sitters or newly politicised voters. Voters are engaging like never before, although many remain unsure who to vote for. The BN is relying on financial incentives to mobilise, while the opposition is working on building mood for change.

Given the energy at the ceramah of both coalitions last night, Pakatan is winning support on the ground. The real war will come tonight as the opposition faces off against Najib’s personal appeal.

3) Ethnic swings

The fight for votes focuses on winning key ethnic constituencies. The most contested community has been the Iban.

Usually easily bought over, there appears to be more openness to the opposition this round as concerns over poverty and more communication with younger Ibans working outside have raised questions about the relative living standards of this rightfully proud community.

?Whoever wins this contest will need an Iban swing. Here the choice for money or change is most stark.

The other two major communities are important as well. DAP gains among the Chinese will give them a victory, if they can push their support level above 72 percent. This is where the issue of candidates and deliverables will be most crucial, although more and more Chinese Sibuans are thinking about the national direction in areas of religious freedom and fair representation.

For the Malay community, the stalwart BN base in Sibu, any movement will be a bonus for either side.

This contest has had less of the ultra-chauvinist overtones of other by-elections since March 2008, but it’s still there and percolating over issues of rights, corruption, distribution and charges of Malay betrayal on the part of the opposition leadership.

The BN needs their Malay base more than ever in this round.

4) Local alliances and gambling

In this heated contest tied to voter mobilisation and ethnic swings, local networks factor in.

Friends supporting friends, calling on others to vote, will matter. Indirect and direct ties to parties will matter. Discussions in the coffee shops, churches and children’s day care are intense. Women voters will be decisive as many have not voted before and are less politically mobilised.

Beyond social networks and personal connections to the parties and candidates, the role of the local imam, samseng, clan and professional associations and gambling pools will make a difference.

It is a small town after all, and local leaders and groups have an impact. Traditionally, of these local dynamics the most important has been gambling, as the gaming odds have been manipulated with financial backing to swing votes in favour of one side as voters vote to win their bets in favourable odds.

Given the antipathy of local tycoons – in which the Lau family is a major player – and the closeness of the contest itself, this could also prove important, although this time around, it may not be as crucial a factor as in earlier contests.

Sibuans deserve better

The main gamble that will matter when the contest is over is whether the PM gets his mandate or the opposition gets its momentum, and whether investing personally paid off for Najib or whether bringing in national politics in the form of a multi-ethnic alliance benefited the DAP in Sibu.

?The stakes are high and choices difficult. Sibu voters may be waking up to their national role, but are not sure exactly what they are waking up to.

Like most Malaysians, they want (and deserve) a better, more effective, fairer government that allows them to live in peace and prosperity.

They have a dream. Tomorrow they will choose who they will entrust to carry it out.

***

Last-minute tweets --

Real-time results for #sibu

mingxhin

1. Gangster State #Sibu #P212 http://bit.ly/bCDGcT about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck
   • Reply
   • Retweet
2. mingxhin
   Wong Soon Koh:"A vote for rocket is a vote for Islamic State" Me:"A vote for soup is a vote for Gangster State" #Sibu #P212 about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck
   • Reply
   • Retweet
3. YiiSing
   @weekasiongmp i dont care for Thomas cup. i just know #sibu DAP will upset BN by tomolo about 1 hour ago via web in reply to weekasiongmp
   • Reply
   • Retweet
4. mingxhin
   @mozas_my29 How Karpal nak bunuh Mahathir,langgar dia ngan kerusi roda?Pi lah lu kumpul kat Perhimpunan Mei 13 Tak ada kaitan pun ngan #Sibu about 2 hours ago via TweetDeck in reply to mozas_my29
   • Reply
   • Retweet
5. williamnka
   Good night Tweeples. Waking up early for #Sibu #P212 By-Election showdown later today. Go out in full force on Twitter. about 2 hours ago via web
   • Reply
   • Retweet
6. williamnka
   Santa Claus donated RM167mil few weeks ago in HS and he's delivering another bag of goodies to #Sibu. I didn't know we hv Christmas thrice. about 3 hours ago via web
   • Reply
   • Retweet
7. AdrianNCF
   @SamZzNg betui cakap u.jadi pengundi yg bijak #Sibu #P212 about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck in reply to SamZzNg
   • Reply
   • Retweet
8. SamZzNg
   @AdrianNCF yah betul. Tapi status quo sekarang, bagi duit kita ambik. Tapi undi? Jangan harap. #P212 #sibu about 3 hours ago via UberTwitter in reply to AdrianNCF
   • Reply
   • Retweet
9. williamnka
   #P212 #Sibu, dun be blinded. PM Najib only promised you RM5mil if Robert Lau wins. If not, don't dream on the RM5mil. Reject MONEY SCAM !!! about 3 hours ago via web
   • Reply
   • Retweet
10. AdrianNCF
    Rakyat #Sibu sekalian,jangan undi demi $! Undi demi masa depan anak-anak anda!! #P212 about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck
    • Reply
    • Retweet
11. AdrianNCF
    Rakyat #Sibu sekalian,jangan undi demi $! Undi demi masa depan anak-anak anda!! about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck
    • Reply
    • Retweet
12. bongkersz
    MACC, EC = butt jokes.. D talk about change is a sad joke, when d PM tried to broker an unholy deal for votes. "Do we have a deal?" #Sibu about 3 hours ago via UberTwitter
    • Reply
    • Retweet
13. barisannasional
    “Battle of Century” Grand finale ceramah – tweets: #P212 #Sibu DAP grand finale crmh near Paramount Hotel MPs Chie... http://bit.ly/aI7LCq about 3 hours ago via twitterfeed
    • Reply
    • Retweet
14. chedet
    “Battle of Century” Grand finale ceramah – tweets: #P212 #Sibu DAP grand finale crmh near Paramount Hotel MPs Chie... http://bit.ly/aI7LCq about 3 hours ago via twitterfeed
    • Reply
    • Retweet
15. mingxhin
    Sticking neck out time:My prediction 4 #Sibu DAP win 1500 votes or landslide 3000+ votes.65% Chinese,30% Iban,20% Melanau,10% Postal GudNite about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck
    • Reply
    • Retweet
16. hushh_sahudin
    I would like nothing better than for Sibu #Sibu #P212 to vote for real change, and get it. about 3 hours ago via web
    • Reply
    • Retweet
    • Retweeted by 2 people">2 Retweets
17. limkitsiang
    #P212 #Sibu grand finale ceramah ended w LGE as anchor speaker summoning Sibuans 2lead change Great end 2campaign of Battle of Century about 3 hours ago via UberTwitter
    • Reply
    • Retweet
    • Retweeted by 3 people">3 Retweets

Related articles by Zemanta

• Wangsa Maju MP Wee Choo Keong Has Quit PKR (the-malaysian.blogspot.com)