By Sarah Marcus
Special to The Washington Post
Sunday, June 28, 2009
TBILISI, Georgia -- Military helicopters circled once again over Georgia's mountainous terrain. Amid the crackle of gunfire, soldiers ran across battlefields carrying comrades on stretchers. But this was no repeat of last summer's brief war with Russia. It was a training exercise -- and this time, NATO sent help.
The month-long exercises, which concluded June 3 and involved more than 1,000 soldiers from 14 countries, took place near Georgia's border with the breakaway territory of South Ossetia and were condemned by the Russian government as a "provocation."
Now the Kremlin is preparing to stage its own military maneuvers in the Caucasus region. Russia's top commander, Gen. Nikolai Makarov, has said the "large-scale exercises" will involve "all the brigades of the North Caucasus Military District, the Black Sea Fleet and Caspian Flotilla marine brigades."
Makarov will personally oversee the operation, dubbed Kavkaz-2009, according to Russian state media. The exercises are set to begin Monday and end July 6, just as President Obama is scheduled to arrive in Moscow on his first state visit.
The two sets of war games are a reminder of the volatility of the region more than 10 months after Russian troops routed the Georgian army in a five-day war. The Russian exercises will go forward as two international monitoring missions are withdrawing from the area and as Russian forces continue to occupy territory that a year ago was uncontested Georgian soil.
A team of observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is scheduled to leave Georgia at the end of the month at Russia's insistence, and Moscow used its veto in the U.N. Security Council last week to terminate the U.N. mission in the other breakaway Georgian territory, Abkhazia.
A third group of monitors from the European Union remains in Georgia but has been denied access to the two territories, which Russia recognized as independent countries after last year's war.
Pavel Felgengauer, a Moscow-based military analyst who writes for the opposition Novaya Gazeta newspaper, warned that Russia may be preparing for another war, in part to establish a corridor through Georgia to an important Russian base in Armenia.
He noted that similar Russian exercises in the North Caucasus preceded last year's war. "Such exercises are traditionally used as a cover under which to prepare troops for war," he said. "They could easily lead to deployment of troops."
The Georgian government's response to the Russian exercises has been muted. But Defense Minister Vasil Sikharulidze traveled to Washington this month to urge the Obama administration to strengthen military cooperation with Georgia. Speaking to the Associated Press, he warned that Russian troops were "better prepared for war than they were last year."
In a recent interview, Sikharulidze added that Georgia was working with the United States to upgrade its armed forces. "If you compare Russian and Georgian military organization, there is a huge disbalance," he said. "But the Georgian army is trained, and being trained, to deter and delay Russian aggression."
Sikharulidze said the army began a new training cycle, focused on defense, in January. But he said the United States has not supplied antitank and antiaircraft weapons that Georgia has sought.
Russian officials, meanwhile, insist that Georgia is already better armed than it was before the war. They have accused E.U. monitors of ignoring the buildup and Georgia of preparing to seize the territories by force.
About 8,500 troops will participate in the upcoming exercises, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, though statements by Makarov and others suggest much larger maneuvers. Officials have said the exercises will incorporate lessons from the Georgian war but focus on counterterrorism operations.
NATO officials said the alliance's peacekeeping and crisis-response exercises in Georgia were scheduled long before last year's war and were not targeted at Russia. But the decision to proceed despite Russian objections was seen as an achievement by the Georgian government.
"It was very important to have a message that the principle of sovereignty is an important thing for NATO and [that] no country can just veto a decision from outside," said Deputy Foreign Minister Giga Bokeria.
NATO support appears more important than ever to this former Soviet republic, yet Georgia's prospects for joining the alliance have faded amid U.S. efforts to improve relations with Russia and lingering concerns about the judgment of President Mikheil Saakashvili, whom some blame for provoking last year's war.
NATO has pledged to bring Georgia into the alliance, but it rejected Georgia's request for a clear timetable for membership and instead set up an annual process for reviewing the country's progress toward alliance requirements.
The decision, and the departure of the Bush administration, have heightened anxiety in Georgia about whether Washington will continue to back it against its powerful neighbor.
The U.S. assistant secretary of state for the region, Philip H. Gordon, traveled to Tbilisi this month and reaffirmed a partnership agreement signed by the Bush administration. And in April, Obama stood firm on Georgia in a London meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, referring to the war as "the Russian invasion of Georgia" in a news conference.
Saakashvili, a favorite of the Bush administration, said Obama's use of the phrase amounted to an endorsement of Georgia's view of the war.
Russia maintains that it invaded Georgia only after Georgian forces attacked South Ossetia, killing Russian peacekeepers and civilians. Saakashvili says he ordered the assault in response to shelling by South Ossetian rebels and an imminent Russian invasion.
Richard Giragosian, director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies, said U.S. policy toward Georgia has shifted, official statements of support notwithstanding.
While the Pentagon is continuing to work with the Georgian army, he said, the emphasis now is on "assistance and training limited to a defense nature only."
Lincoln Mitchell, a scholar at Columbia University who studies Georgia, said the Obama administration may be reluctant to provide arms to Georgia because of Saakashvili's domestic policies. A fractured opposition has portrayed him as an autocrat and staged weeks of protests demanding he resign.
But Bokeria, the deputy foreign minister, defended Georgia's democratic credentials, calling them "an important factor" in U.S. support for the country. "This factor is not hampering the assistance," he said.
No comments:
Post a Comment