Likely Japan Leaders to Focus on Asian Ties - WSJ.com

By CARLOS TEJADA and EVAN RAMSTAD

Japan will likely seek greater independence from the U.S., and focus more on its ties with China and the rest of Asia, under new leadership expected to take power after elections on Sunday.

Early tests of how far Japan's foreign policy might shift will come as the incoming government considers the fate of U.S. military facilities on Okinawa -- which are unpopular locally -- and whether it will keep helping refuel U.S. ships in the Indian Ocean. Japan's response to China's interest in natural-gas resources located in waters claimed by both countries also will offer clues.

Polls show the center-left Democratic Party of Japan is expected to trounce the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in lower-house parliamentary elections.

During its 50-year history, the LDP has often followed Washington's lead in foreign policy. By contrast, the DPJ says it wants closer ties and more trade agreements with regional neighbors while it seeks a "more equal" relationship with the U.S.

"The era of U.S.-led globalism is coming to an end and we are moving away from a unipolar world toward an era of multipolarity," party leader Yukio Hatoyama, widely assumed to be Japan's next prime minister, wrote this month in a Japanese magazine, Voice. He pointed to the European Union as an example of a means for overcoming regional differences.

Not all of DPJ's policies are expected to run counter to U.S. interests. The U.S. could gain a stronger ally in initiatives to curb greenhouses gases. A DPJ-led government also is expected to maintain Japan's firm approach toward North Korea amid concerns about nuclear proliferation and political pressure to get back Japanese citizens abducted by Pyongyang.

Little can be said with certainty about the direction Mr. Hatoyama might take should his party prevail, given the lack of a track record. Observers note that most of the DPJ's campaign has focused on domestic issues. On foreign policy, the party in recent months has stepped back from some of its stronger language on U.S.-Japanese relations. The DPJ lacks foreign-policy experience in areas and may find itself more dependent than its predecessor on Japan's diplomatic bureaucracy, they say.

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"They haven't had a chance to cut their teeth, so to speak, on real policy dialogue," said Sheila A. Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in the U.S.

Further, some observers say Japan hasn't led in areas such as global trade talks, and would need to develop more concrete steps than the DPJ has articulated so far before it can make its own path.

"It all comes down to, 'Do you really have ideas? Can you generate ideas?'" said Reinhard Drifte, a former professor of Japanese politics at the University of Newcastle in the U.K., who questions Japan's "will and ability to have a more autonomous foreign policy."

DPJ officials -- who have made cutting bureaucracy a cornerstone of their campaign -- dispute any perceived lack of experience, saying its members include a number of current lawmakers with extensive foreign-policy backgrounds.

Yukihisa Fujita, a lawmaker and party member, said in an email that relations with the U.S. remain Japan's most important. "However, relations with the United Nations, and with Asian and European nations, are also extremely important, and we are of the opinion that we need to strike more of a balance in this regard," he said.

The U.S. State Department said its officials weren't available to discuss the DPJ's policies until after the election. "We have a close alliance relationship with Japan which we expect to continue after the election, whichever party gains control of the government," it said in a statement.

Economically, Japan has grown closer with China and South Korea, and the former is now its No. 1 trading partner, with about $236 billion in combined imports and exports last year.

DPJ officials have taken steps to smooth relations with Asian neighbors. "We have some expectation that they will have a more sincere and sympathetic approach in solving some of the issues related with history," said Chung Byung-won, a director on the Japan desk at South Korea's foreign ministry in Seoul. A spokesman at China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Beijing wishes to "enhance our bilateral cooperation, and to continuously deepen the reciprocal and strategic relationship between China and Japan, so as to promote peace and the development of Asia together."

Tensions linger between Japan and China over resources in the East China Sea. Ownership of the resources remains disputed, despite an agreement last year to jointly develop natural-gas fields. The LDP-led government began playing down its concerns as overall tensions between the two countries eased, but it remains to be seen whether DPJ leaders will follow that lead.

The DPJ has pledged not to continue naval refueling missions in the Indian Ocean that support U.S. efforts in Afghanistan when an agreement expires next year. But Japan may be reluctant to pull out entirely from operations related to Afghanistan, and the U.S. could use Japan's willingness to be more involved in world affairs to push for greater contributions to that or some other global effort, said Michael J. Green, senior adviser and Japan chair for the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

The DPJ's platform calls for re-examining the role of U.S. bases in Japan. But experts consider a quick decision unlikely. U.S. and Japanese officials already have agreed to move an unpopular facility in Okinawa, but the DPJ favors moving it farther away.

—Bai Lin and Kersten Zhang contributed to this article.

Write to Carlos Tejada at carlos.tejada@wsj.com and Evan Ramstad at evan.ramstad@wsj.com

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