In Asia » Examining the Arroyo Legacy in the Philippines

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By Steven Rood

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has dominated Philippine politics this entire decade, first in January 2001 as a vice president who succeeded President Joseph Estrada on the heels of a “people power” protest (triggered by the suspension of the impeachment trial of President Estrada) – a succession that was confirmed by the Supreme Court. She then went on to serve as president longer than any since Ferdinand Marcos when she won a full six-year term in May 2004. That election was marred by significant controversy that peaked when an audio recording was leaked purporting to reveal Ms. Arroyo on the phone with Commission on Election Commissioner Garcillano talking about padding her vote margin. Her popularity (as measured by periodic citizen surveys) subsequently plumbed to depths never before reached in Philippine politics, and has consistently remained low for five years. We now watch and wait as the nation prepares to elect a new president on May 10, 2010.

At the recent Association for Asian Studies (AAS) 2010 Conference in Philadelphia in late March, the only session (of 282) that was devoted to the Philippines focused on Arroyo’s legacy.

Panel chair and author of several works on the Philippines, David Timberman, outlined four contrasts that he sees in the Arroyo Legacy: 1) The contested legitimacy and unpopularity (as measured in opinion surveys) with the administration’s remarkable staying power and “vitality;” 2) The continued defensiveness of the administration in the face of these attacks versus the success in making policy; 3) The effective wielding of presidential powers with the marginalization of other potential policy-makers; and 4) The lack of significant new investment or jobs in the Philippines and prevailing poverty, despite sustained GDP growth.

As a presenter, I pointed out that overall World Bank Governance Indicators show a decidedly mixed Arroyo legacy: between 2000 and 2008 there was a steady increase in government effectiveness and rule of law (under the consistent leadership of three successive chief justices), while at the same time, a steady decline in political stability, voice and accountability, and control of corruption.

I chose to demonstrate the Philippines’ riddled history by quoting from a timeless 1954 Brookings Institution report about the need to make “resolute efforts to get rid of corruption in office.” But I also talked about Arroyo’s smart 2003 “roll-on roll-off” maritime initiative, which brought down the cost of shipping among the Philippine islands by 30 to 40 percent as a historic policy success.

Since President Arroyo announced in 2001 a switch from former President Estrada’s “all out war” policy to one of “all out peace,” significant, though sporadic, progress has been made between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. Most recently, after an outbreak of fighting in late 2008, peace talks began once again in late 2009, International Monitoring Teams are on the ground, and an International Contact Group (of which The Asia Foundation is a member) is assisting in the negotiations. Focus now is on maintaining the peace, preserving the gains of the past years through negotiation, and handing off to the incoming administration, whomever it may be, on July 1. In the meantime, the very real dangers of relying on local strongmen for support both in politics and in counter-insurgency was demonstrated by the November 23 election-related massacre in Maguindanao that left 57 people dead.

Another presenter, Gwendolyn Bevis of Management Systems International, described the results of studies of the budgetary process, which President Arroyo has managed to dominate and manipulate throughout her administration. Aside from particular moves to withhold pork barrel allocations for opposition legislatures and to reduce the amount of influence Congress has on the budget, presidential power was increased by a general trend toward lump sum (rather than itemized) appropriation and the discretionary use by the president of previous years’ savings. A sophisticated budgetary team, with the persistence to examine the entire budget (the Philippine president can veto particular line items), maximized the effect.

Ronald Mendoza, an expatriate Filipino and economist with the United Nations, put the economic record of Arroyo into a historical perspective back to the Marcos period. This analysis helped to underscore the country’s boom and bust growth pattern, leaving very little opportunity for sustained economic and human development. During the most recent 2008-2009 crisis, remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers once again offered invaluable support. Mendoza observed that overseas workers have offered a continued de facto bailout of the country, which would have faced debt sustainability problems in the absence of these resource flows.

Similar to earlier administrations, the Arroyo regime failed to address key social and economic challenges relating to persistent poverty and inequality. Indeed, the recent growth spurt prior to 2008-2009 occurred while indicators of poverty and hunger increased. The recent boom period, while impressive on paper, created benefits that even Arroyo supporters admit were not broadly shared by most Filipinos.

Further, a lack of commitment to agricultural development is a major factor behind the Philippines’ transformation from a self-sufficient rice producer into the world’s top importer of rice. This also reflects the broader underdevelopment of the rural sector, in turn contributing to a pattern of growth that has left behind millions of Filipinos and failed to make major inroads in poverty reduction. Over half of families engaged in farming are below the Philippine poverty line, a figure which has remained largely unchanged since the mid-1980s.

The Arroyo legacy could be characterized by some improvements on the policy front, though they are inadequate and leave many governance challenges and social inequities largely unaddressed. As shown by the World Bank indicators, chronic problems such as corruption have worsened, a key reason behind the Philippines’ anemic progress in economic and human development. In addition, even the recent boom period beginning in 2001 and ending in 2008-2009 represents a missed opportunity to facilitate sustained change. This leaves many challenges for President Arroyo’s successor to take up on July 1 when the next Philippine president is inaugurated.

Note: In the 5th paragraph of this piece, Arroyo’s smart 2003 “roll-on-roll-off” maritime initiative was inadvertently called Aquino’s smart 2003 “roll-on roll-off” maritime initiative. The story has been corrected.

Steven Rood is The Asia Foundation’s Country Representative for the Philippines and Pacific Island Nations. He can be reached at srood@asiafound.org.

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Estrada Begins Unlikely Comeback in Philippines - NYTimes.com

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

By CARLOS H. CONDE

QUEZON CITY, PHILIPPINES — It was an improbable sight: a slightly hunched man, with a gait that suggested either his age (72) or infirmity (a bad back and knees that required replacement surgery), beating up a taller opponent no older than 30.

The older man ducked as the younger one tried to bang him with a piece of wood. He cut him down with a right to the abdomen and a left hook to the face, sending his adversary stumbling to the ground. Then another opponent got smacked in the face and kicked in the midsection with one of those bad knees. Yet another came along, and he, too, went down, crashing into a table.

“I missed doing this,” the older man, Joseph Estrada — longtime actor and onetime president of the Philippines — said moments after the director cried “Cut!” Mr. Estrada then walked toward the gate of the bus terminal where the movie was being shot and waved at the gawking crowd, which delightedly waved back. He moved closer to his fans, who giggled, hugged and kissed him, some whipping out cellphone cameras.

“Don’t forget me, okay? We will take back Malacanang!” he hollered as he clambered up the hood of a jeepney, the ubiquitous Philippine minibus. The crowd responded by chanting his moniker: “Erap! Erap! Erap!”

Malacanang is the presidential palace, and Mr. Estrada managed to stay there for less than half of his six-year term. He was driven from office in 2001, during what is now known as People Power 2, after a Senate impeachment trial on allegations of corruption — including accusations he took kickbacks from gambling lords — was cut short by attempts by Mr. Estrada’s allies to suppress evidence, sending Filipinos to the streets in protest.

Last week, Mr. Estrada announced during his party’s convention that he would run again for president in the election next year, calling it his “final, final performance.” The announcement, needless to say, flummoxed his political opponents and upset the Philippines’ already rambunctious politics.

Mr. Estrada, returning to movies after a break of more than two decades — which includes the six years he spent in prison for plunder and corruption — satisfies a lifelong passion. “I love making movies. Without the movies, there would not be a Joseph Estrada,” he said in between takes on the set of the comedy “One and Only Family.”

And returning to politics — despite his promise to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo when she pardoned him in 2007 that he would never again seek elective office — is a chance to take care of unfinished political business. In an interview on the movie set, Mr. Estrada said his decision to run again was important to him “so I can clean up my name and prove to those who removed me that they were wrong.”

Whether he can accomplish this is not clear. The Philippine Constitution prohibits a president from seeking another term. Mr. Estrada insists, however, that he was never given a chance to finish his term, so this doesn’t apply.

“I am not running for re-election,” he said. “I am running for election.”

His opponents, particularly within the Arroyo administration, vow to take the issue to the Supreme Court.

More than settling old scores, however, Mr. Estrada insists that he is acting in the interests of the nation. “I want to continue what I started,” he said.

He promised, for instance, to resume his “all-out war” against Islamic separatists and Communist insurgents. And, he added, with no hint of irony, “There is so much corruption going on now that we have to have change.”

Saddled with the corruption charges, which he continues to deny, and a legacy of misrule, which he continues to challenge, Mr. Estrada hopes to endear himself once again to Filipinos — through the movies, at least for now.

Many still adore him, but many, too, are offended not just by his audacity but also by his insistence that what happened in 2001 was an illegal coup staged by the country’s elite.

“It is only in the Philippines where a disgraced president who was ousted by a people’s uprising would dare run for the presidency again, without atoning for his past mistakes and even insisting that he did nothing wrong,” wrote Benjie Oliveros, a political columnist.

Indeed, Mr. Estrada’s assistants have been distributing a flier featuring some of the world’s most influential publications criticizing People Power 2.

“Gloria Macapagal Arroyo took over the presidency in constitutional circumstances that do not stand up well to scrutiny,” says The Economist. “People Power has become an acceptable term for a troubling phenomenon, one that used to be known as mob rule,” says Time magazine.

“They hated me so much that they never stopped demonizing me,” Mr. Estrada said, puffing on a cigarette that he tried to hide each time a photographer snapped his picture. (“I don’t want young people to see me smoking,” he said.) “They threw at me not just the kitchen sink but also the toilet bowl,” he said, chuckling, evidently pleased with his play of words. “But I never stopped being the president of this country.”

That appears true, at least on this movie set in Quezon City. He arrived with the trappings of power: in a shiny, black Lincoln Navigator, escorted by two police officers on motorcycles. The umbrella his assistant held over him bore the presidential seal. People addressed him as “presidente.” The set was Mr. Estrada’s domain, just as Malacanang had been.

In the 1950s, show business provided an escape for Mr. Estrada, who had dropped out of an engineering course. Of the 10 children in the family, Joseph Marcelo Ejercito — as he was known before he adopted the screen name Joseph Estrada — was the only one who did not graduate from college.

But, he says, he made up for it by excelling in the movies. He made more than 100 films in a career spanning three decades and won countless acting awards.

In many of these films, Mr. Estrada portrayed poor men seeking justice. Although he was never really poor, he said he “identified with these roles” and tried to plumb the depths of his characters. “I researched my roles so I understand how it is to be poor,” he said. “I have been a jeepney driver, a labor leader, a Communist guerrilla.”

These roles endeared him to Filipino voters, Mr. Estrada said, enough for them to elect him first as mayor — for 17 years — of San Juan, a suburb in Metro Manila, then as senator, vice president and finally president. He impressed nationalists when he produced and starred in “In the Claws of the Eagle,” a 1991 film that was highly critical of U.S. military bases. “I am proud to say that that movie helped in kicking out the bases,” he said.

That the movie he is making now is a comedy about a jeepney driver who gives his daughter’s boyfriend a hard time — in other words, a movie with no obvious political significance — is hardly an issue with Mr. Estrada. “I enjoy doing this, and I missed doing this,” he said. Besides, the movie, with its use of the iconic jeepney, could advance his political agenda; a movement he created, “Jeep ni Erap,” continues to recruit supporters.

After a makeup artist retouched his face, Mr. Estrada stood up and positioned himself beside a jeepney to rehearse another fight scene. With a brio that seemed somewhat at odds with his hunched figure and sagging features, he lunged at a thug, grabbed his head and slammed it on the hood of the vehicle. The director yelled “Cut!” — and Mr. Estrada, ever so slightly, pumped his fist.

Villar tops Pulse Asia poll in Philippines

Image by gmaresign via Flickr

Estrada in virtual tie,despite 2001 incident

By Rommel C. Lontayao, Reporter

If the presidential elections scheduled in May 2010 were held today, it would be a practically neck-and-neck race between Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. and former President Joseph Estrada, an opinion poll reported Tuesday.

In the latest Pulse Asia survey, one in four voters (25 percent) favored Villar as the country’s next head of state, and one in five voters (20 percent) chose Estrada as the country’s president despite his 2001 overthrow and conviction for corruption.

The nationwide survey of 1,800 adults was conducted between July 28 and August 10.

Only 6 percent of the respondents felt that the next president should not be corrupt, Pulse Asia said.

Villar also topped a survey made by Social Weather Stations in July when he received a 33-percent preference rating.

In the Pulse Asia survey, he and Estrada were followed by Vice President Noli de Castro (16 percent), Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero (12 percent) and Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd (11 percent).

“The other individuals included in the presidential probe obtained voter preferences of six percent or less,” Pulse Asia said.

It noted that “with less than nine months to go before the next elections, virtually every Filipino already has a preferred presidential candidate.”

Only significant change

Pulse Asia said that the only significant change in overall presidential voter preferences between May and August 2009 was recorded by Villar, with an increase of 11 percentage points in his favor.

Estrada also improved in his overall voter preference with 4 percentage points more.

Escudero experienced a slight decline in the level of public support for his presidential bid, with his rating down by 5 points.

Pulse Asia said that in the National Capital Region (Metro Manila), Villar was the most favored presidential candidate with 24 percent, followed by Escudero (22 percent) and Estrada (19 percent).

In the balance Luzon, Villar had 22 percent, Estrada (19 percent), de Castro (16 percent) and Escudero (15 percent). The balance of Luzon refers to all the regions on the main island except Metro Manila.

In the Visayas, Villar also recorded the highest voter preference with 30 percent, with de Castro behind him with 22 percent.

In Mindanao, he and Estrada and Villar tied, each with 26 percent.

Among the respondents belonging to the A, B and C socioeconomic classes, Escudero got 30 percent and Villar, 28 percent.

Cass D respondents also supported Villar (25 percent) and Estrada (19 percent).

In the Class E level, Villar and Estrada also tied (each with 23 percent), followed by de Castro (22 percent).

Presidential qualities

The Pulse Asia survey found that 25 percent of Filipinos vote based on the candidate’s accomplishments.

Also, about one in five Filipinos (20 percent) said that their candidate must be pro-poor.

Other qualities cited were the candidate’s being helpful to others (12 percent), especially overseas Filipino workers (8 percent); he or she not being corrupt (6 percent); proven capability in governance (four percent); goodness (4 percent); being principled (3 percent); and intelligence (3 percent).

The survey had a plus or minus 2 percent error margin at the national level, plus or minus 6 percent for Metro Manila, plus or minus 4 percent for the balance of Luzon, and plus or minus 5 percent for each of Visayas and Mindanao.

‘Vote of confidence’

Villar, in a statement, said that the Pulse Asia survey results reflected “the people’s vote of confidence” in him.

Despite the results, he added, he still expected his political rivals to continue with their “attacks” against him.

“But I am certain that the people are discerning and are not easily swayed by obvious demolition jobs against me,” Villar said.

He has been spending heavily on television advertising ahead of the November deadline for filing candidacies.

Fellow senators have accused Villar of using his influence to ensure road projects pass through his property projects.

Estrada, a former movie star, was convicted of corruption in 2007, six years after he was impeached and toppled in a bloodless coup.

The Philippine Constitution sets a single, six-year term for presidents but Estrada’s backers say that he is excluded from this since he did not finish his term, which was completed by the incumbent at present, Gloria Arroyo.

Estrada, who has announced he is willing to run for president again, was pardoned by President Arroyo after serving less than a month of a lifetime prison sentence.

In the Pulse Asia opinion poll, the respondents said that they favored Estrada because of his “pro-poor orientation.”

The former president, according to opposition leader and former Sen. Ernesto Maceda, would likely announce in the last week of September whether he would seek the presidency again by running in the 2010 elections.

Maceda, the spokesman for the United Opposition (UNO), in a statement also on Tuesday said that Estrada has met with Roxas and is in constant meetings with Sen. Loren Legarda and Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay, as well as Villar, in his bid to unify the political opposition.

Despite the apparent consultation, Estrada’s wish for the opposition to field a single standard-bearer in 2010, the UNO spokesman said, looked “dim.”

Jamby won’t give way

If the former president ran, he possibly would not be able to convince Sen. Jamby Madrigal to slide down to Vice President or senator in next year’s polls

“Only my conscience can tell me to slide down and no one else,” Madrigal said also on Tuesday.

She reiterated her determination to run for president in 2010 but remained open to talks with Estrada, who had claimed that he wanted to unite the opposition behind a single opposition standard-bearer.

Among the opposition wannabes, it was only Madrigal whom Estrada had not met with.

Madrigal, however, said that Estrada might be calling her one of these days, adding that she did not expect Estrada to talk with her about unifying the opposition.

She disclosed that the last time that she and Estrada talked was at the burial of former President Corazon Aquino.

Madrigal said that she has not chosen her running mate.
-- With Reports From Efren L. Danao And AFP