Villar tops Pulse Asia poll in Philippines

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Estrada in virtual tie,despite 2001 incident

By Rommel C. Lontayao, Reporter

If the presidential elections scheduled in May 2010 were held today, it would be a practically neck-and-neck race between Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. and former President Joseph Estrada, an opinion poll reported Tuesday.

In the latest Pulse Asia survey, one in four voters (25 percent) favored Villar as the country’s next head of state, and one in five voters (20 percent) chose Estrada as the country’s president despite his 2001 overthrow and conviction for corruption.

The nationwide survey of 1,800 adults was conducted between July 28 and August 10.

Only 6 percent of the respondents felt that the next president should not be corrupt, Pulse Asia said.

Villar also topped a survey made by Social Weather Stations in July when he received a 33-percent preference rating.

In the Pulse Asia survey, he and Estrada were followed by Vice President Noli de Castro (16 percent), Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero (12 percent) and Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd (11 percent).

“The other individuals included in the presidential probe obtained voter preferences of six percent or less,” Pulse Asia said.

It noted that “with less than nine months to go before the next elections, virtually every Filipino already has a preferred presidential candidate.”

Only significant change

Pulse Asia said that the only significant change in overall presidential voter preferences between May and August 2009 was recorded by Villar, with an increase of 11 percentage points in his favor.

Estrada also improved in his overall voter preference with 4 percentage points more.

Escudero experienced a slight decline in the level of public support for his presidential bid, with his rating down by 5 points.

Pulse Asia said that in the National Capital Region (Metro Manila), Villar was the most favored presidential candidate with 24 percent, followed by Escudero (22 percent) and Estrada (19 percent).

In the balance Luzon, Villar had 22 percent, Estrada (19 percent), de Castro (16 percent) and Escudero (15 percent). The balance of Luzon refers to all the regions on the main island except Metro Manila.

In the Visayas, Villar also recorded the highest voter preference with 30 percent, with de Castro behind him with 22 percent.

In Mindanao, he and Estrada and Villar tied, each with 26 percent.

Among the respondents belonging to the A, B and C socioeconomic classes, Escudero got 30 percent and Villar, 28 percent.

Cass D respondents also supported Villar (25 percent) and Estrada (19 percent).

In the Class E level, Villar and Estrada also tied (each with 23 percent), followed by de Castro (22 percent).

Presidential qualities

The Pulse Asia survey found that 25 percent of Filipinos vote based on the candidate’s accomplishments.

Also, about one in five Filipinos (20 percent) said that their candidate must be pro-poor.

Other qualities cited were the candidate’s being helpful to others (12 percent), especially overseas Filipino workers (8 percent); he or she not being corrupt (6 percent); proven capability in governance (four percent); goodness (4 percent); being principled (3 percent); and intelligence (3 percent).

The survey had a plus or minus 2 percent error margin at the national level, plus or minus 6 percent for Metro Manila, plus or minus 4 percent for the balance of Luzon, and plus or minus 5 percent for each of Visayas and Mindanao.

‘Vote of confidence’

Villar, in a statement, said that the Pulse Asia survey results reflected “the people’s vote of confidence” in him.

Despite the results, he added, he still expected his political rivals to continue with their “attacks” against him.

“But I am certain that the people are discerning and are not easily swayed by obvious demolition jobs against me,” Villar said.

He has been spending heavily on television advertising ahead of the November deadline for filing candidacies.

Fellow senators have accused Villar of using his influence to ensure road projects pass through his property projects.

Estrada, a former movie star, was convicted of corruption in 2007, six years after he was impeached and toppled in a bloodless coup.

The Philippine Constitution sets a single, six-year term for presidents but Estrada’s backers say that he is excluded from this since he did not finish his term, which was completed by the incumbent at present, Gloria Arroyo.

Estrada, who has announced he is willing to run for president again, was pardoned by President Arroyo after serving less than a month of a lifetime prison sentence.

In the Pulse Asia opinion poll, the respondents said that they favored Estrada because of his “pro-poor orientation.”

The former president, according to opposition leader and former Sen. Ernesto Maceda, would likely announce in the last week of September whether he would seek the presidency again by running in the 2010 elections.

Maceda, the spokesman for the United Opposition (UNO), in a statement also on Tuesday said that Estrada has met with Roxas and is in constant meetings with Sen. Loren Legarda and Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay, as well as Villar, in his bid to unify the political opposition.

Despite the apparent consultation, Estrada’s wish for the opposition to field a single standard-bearer in 2010, the UNO spokesman said, looked “dim.”

Jamby won’t give way

If the former president ran, he possibly would not be able to convince Sen. Jamby Madrigal to slide down to Vice President or senator in next year’s polls

“Only my conscience can tell me to slide down and no one else,” Madrigal said also on Tuesday.

She reiterated her determination to run for president in 2010 but remained open to talks with Estrada, who had claimed that he wanted to unite the opposition behind a single opposition standard-bearer.

Among the opposition wannabes, it was only Madrigal whom Estrada had not met with.

Madrigal, however, said that Estrada might be calling her one of these days, adding that she did not expect Estrada to talk with her about unifying the opposition.

She disclosed that the last time that she and Estrada talked was at the burial of former President Corazon Aquino.

Madrigal said that she has not chosen her running mate.
-- With Reports From Efren L. Danao And AFP