Starting Points: Prime minister

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Apr 13, 2010

I.H.T. Op-Ed Contributor - Thai Expectations - NYTimes.com

BANGKOK — The chaos and bloodshed that erupted on Bangkok streets is a brutal reminder of the law of unintended consequences. The 2006 military coup that deposed the elected prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and subsequent use of the courts to keep his allies out of power, have raised a specter more dangerous to entrenched interests than Thaksin ever was.

The longer this confrontation between red shirts and the military-backed government continues, the less important will be Thaksin’s own role as opposition leader-in-exile and the more powerful genuinely radical forces will become. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s departure is now likely, which should calm the situation in the short term, but some of the conditions for the rise of leftist demagoguery or Peronist-style rightist populism clearly exist. Thailand is in uncharted territory and analysis of the many past coups and confrontations provide little guide to the future.

Thaksin was an astute billionaire who abused the power that his party’s dominance in Parliament gave him. But his pro-poor spending won him popular support without being fiscally irresponsible or undermining Thailand’s tradition of open markets and private capital. Many of today’s class-warrior red shirts have scant regard for Thaksin but are riding on his supporters’ backs toward what they hope is more radical change than he espouses.

Once the red shirts were viewed by their opponents as a Thaksin-financed rabble of rural poor. But the evidence in recent days is that they enjoy the sympathy of large numbers of Bangkok’s own lower-income groups — taxi-drivers, street vendors, security guards and construction workers. Even those most inconvenienced by the demonstrations, the tens of thousands dependent on tourism and other disrupted businesses, are not all on the side of law and order.

The legacy of the demonstrations will be lasting. Even the military top brass is not sure of where it now stands, with some urging compromise on all sides to avoid more bloodshed, which would test the loyalty of the rank and file, many of whom are considered sympathetic to the red shirts. Other state institutions, notably the courts, have also come to be widely seen as politically motivated.

Enough Thais have been shocked by the score of recent deaths that compromise will most likely win out in a society where politics is more opportunistic than ideological. The Thai economy is built more on small farms and businesses rather than great estates or industrial combines. But compromise will have to recognize the rising expectations of low-income groups, not only for more equitable income distribution, but also for greater political representation.

Expectations have been fed by Thaksin’s rhetoric and by Thailand’s lively media. Economic fundamentals too now favor the poor. After three decades of low birth rates, Thailand has little growth in its workforce, so the bargaining power of lower-income groups is increasing. Bangkok’s middle class now has to rely on maids from Myanmar to cook and clean. Income distribution is actually no worse than the average in developing Asia — and better than in neighboring countries like Malaysia and China. Moreover, the Thai economy has been growing steadily. But in Thailand’s open and homogenous society expectations have been growing faster. They must now be satisfied.

Apr 4, 2010

Protesters Block Heart of Bangkok’s Shopping Zone - NYTimes.com

Image by Honou via Flickr

By THOMAS FULLER

BANGKOK — Antigovernment protesters who have camped out on the streets of Bangkok for the past three weeks raised the stakes in their mass demonstrations on Saturday, converging on the heart of Bangkok’s shopping district and vowing to remain until new elections are called.

Tens of thousands of protesters, including many families with small children, took over a main intersection, blocking roads leading to upscale shopping malls and five-star hotels and demanding that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of Thailand take action soon.

“We will remain here until the government declares that Parliament is dissolved,” said Veera Musikapong, one of the leaders of the protesters, who are known as the Red Shirts.

The government, which until Saturday had tried to take a conciliatory tone, ordered the demonstrators out of the area.

The Thai Foreign Ministry said the government would follow a “multistep approach, from light to heavier measures,” in what appeared to be a turning point in its handling of the crisis, the latest chapter of four years of political turmoil.

On Tuesday the Thai cabinet extended the use of a law that allows the military to clear out protesters and make arrests. Mr. Abhisit said Saturday that protesters had exceeded the limits of their constitutional right to demonstrate and that the government would negotiate or use legal means to oust them.

Mr. Abhisit has offered to call new elections within nine months — about a year before his term ends — but protest leaders, who claim the government is illegitimate, rejected the concession. The Red Shirts, who have wide support in the populous north and northeast, would probably win elections if they were held now, analysts believe.

Protesters, many of whom support Thaksin Shinawatra, who was removed as prime minister in a 2006 military coup, say they are angry at what they perceive as the undue influence of the country’s bureaucracy, military and elite.

Mr. Thaksin, who is overseas and wanted by the Thai authorities for a corruption conviction, addressed the crowd by video link on Saturday. He urged the crowd to fight for equality.

The Red Shirt demonstrations had until Saturday mostly affected a neighborhood of government ministries and offices. By blockading the main commercial district, however, protest leaders have considerably ratcheted up the pressure on Mr. Abhisit’s government.

Despite the threats to remove them, protesters appeared to be in a jovial mood late Saturday. As they listened to speeches, many camped out on the sidewalk in front of display windows advertising luxury brands like Dior, Ferragamo and Tag Heuer.

Tourists who pushed through the throngs of red-shirted protesters said they were polite and helpful.

“I don’t feel threatened,” said Elizabeth York, a visitor from London whose 1-year-old was in a stroller. “They make way for the babies,” she said.

Others were less forgiving of the demonstrators. An 18-year-old Thai, the scion of a wealthy family, drove his Porsche into protesters’ motorcycles and was besieged by the crowd before the riot police intervened, The Associated Press reported.

A woman who said she had to walk several miles to work because of the demonstration gave this assessment of the protesters: “They are very poor and very stupid.”

Apr 2, 2010

Global Voices Online » Malaysia: New Economic Model

Image via Wikipedia

by Jude Chia

After months of creating anticipation for the ambitious New Economic Model (NEM), Malaysia's Prime Minister, Najib finally unveiled the first part of the plan detailing the future economic direction. It is a major development following a series of selective liberalization measures introduced by Najib since he became the Prime Minister in 2009, constantly projected to be eloquently driving a strong message in gradual economic liberalization and overhaul of affirmative action for ethnic Malay majority in order to make the country more competitive.

The effort is much lauded especially by policy makers in mainstream press, but the citizen media abounds with skepticism. Meanwhile Najib acknowledged the need to be more transparent about the timeline and implementation plan which will be announced later of the year. So the questions are still centered on two key aspects: Has the government finally gathered enough political will to change? Are there enough change agents to take up the ambitious initiative other than the PM?

South East Asian economies have always been characterized by large-state corporations, Najib has made a direct challenge to call for private-sector driven economy and reduce political patronage. How many will embrace such ideas? As Din Merican pointed out, Malaysia needs the drive of SMEs and entrepreneurs to turn this nation into high-income developed country.

These are the people who have been excluded from participation simply because they only have technical skills but no patronage and no intimate relationship with powerful decision makers.

Controversial writer, Raja Petra Kamarudin gave a colorful critique in Shakespearean metaphors, doubting the policy change will immediately constitute the change of heart of key implementers.

The New Economic Policy (NEP) has transformed into the National Economic Policy and now the National Economic Model. It is certainly a change of clothes. But is the wearer of the clothes the same? If so then it would be old wine in a new bottle.

The affirmative action, NEP has always been at the heart of debate. Najib promised to overhaul it into need-based rather than race-based. But some still reserve doubts about it. As Hafiz Noor Shams said:

Somewhere in the speech, the term market-friendly affirmative action appeared. I am not quite bought by that term. I rather hear the abolition of affirmative action but I am willing to give ground that need-based is far better than race-based affirmative action.

In a collection of interviews of economic policy experts, Stephanie Sta Maria highlighted polarized opinions on NEM. Professor Lim Teck Ghee from the Centre of Policy Initiatives described the framework as pure rhetoric.

The long-term time frame of the NEM is an excuse for inaction or delaying tactics. NEM has no short-term targets and I think it will suffer the same fate as the other ambitious policies before it.

University Malaya's Professor Edmund Terence Gomez also delivered a blunt critique that NEM is a fresh coat of gloss on old ideas.

Najib says that the affirmative action policy will now be need-based instead of race-based. But the aspects of its transparency and market-friendliness are clearly targeted at Bumiputeras (Ethnic Malays). And this is no different from the NEP.

Without a track record in making tough political choices and implementing changes, there is little surprise about the level of skepticism on NEM. While the intent of reform is clear but the end result is not, the job has just begun for the coalition government. Like balajoe27 articulated:

The fact is NEM is still in its infant stage – there are good items under the NEM but whether it turns out to be another one-sided policy by another name or it can be implemented effectively, it will remain to be seen.

Aug 31, 2009

Likely Japanese PM Hardly a Natural Politician - washingtonpost.com

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

By Blaine Harden
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, August 31, 2009 3:51 PM

TOKYO, Aug. 31 -- Stiff, shy and very rich, Yukio Hatoyama cuts a curious figure for an opposition leader whose party laid waste on Sunday to the most formidable political machine in the history of modern Japan.

Hatoyama, 62, who soon will become prime minister, has perhaps the bluest political blood in the land. But he is hardly a natural politician.

He has said that when he was studying for a doctorate in engineering at Stanford, he spent many hours wondering what is was that made him avoid human relationships and turn away from all things political.

When he did enter the family business of politics in the 1980s, a far-away look, an eccentric manner and a wooden style of speaking caused him to be nicknamed the "alien." Part of it was the content of his speeches. He talks about how "politics is love," a formulation not often heard from ambitious Japanese politicians.

That message was honed in this summer's campaign to "putting people's lives first." In a promise that resonated with voters, he said his party would wrench power away from bureaucrats who serve the interests of big business. He said he wanted to create "a horizontal society bound by human ties, not a vertically connected society of vested interests."

In a childhood that echoed the cosseted intellectual ambitions of the New York Roosevelts, including Theodore and Franklin, Hatoyama grew up in a splendid European-style family palace in Tokyo. There he collected insects and stamps with his little brother Kunio. He and his brother, who also grew up to be a politician, are believed to have assets of no less than $100 million.

Their grandfather was a prime minister and a founder of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had governed Japan as a virtual one-party state for more than half a century -- until Sunday.

That's when Yukio Hatoyama's Democratic Party rolled over the LDP in a historic landslide. For the first time in Japan's postwar history, voters gave an opposition party control of the government.

For Hatoyama, it was a victory that cut three ways against the family grain. For not only was his grandfather an LDP potentate, his father served in an LDP government as foreign minister and his brother had been an LDP minister in the government of Prime Minister Taro Aso, which voters slapped down on Sunday.

The man who routed the party of his forebears came into politics with the help of that party. He became a private secretary to his father in 1983, and three years later, running for his father's seat, was elected to the lower house of parliament.

It is one of the ironies of Japanese-style reform politics that Hatoyama's party, as part of its manifesto, has promised to ban inherited seats.

Hatoyama had had enough of the LDP by the early 1990s. He defected to a small opposition party and was a leader of a fragile eight-party coalition that briefly grabbed control of the lower house -- and tossed the LDP out of power. But the coalition fell apart in less than 11 months and the LDP again took control.

Hatoyama soon co-founded the Democratic Party -- a slightly left-of-center mix of disaffected LDP veterans, trade unionists, former bureaucrats and ex-socialists. The party jelled as a vote-winning force under the leadership of Ichiro Ozawa, a wily political strategist and former LDP power broker, surprising and humiliating the LDP in a 2007 election by winning control of the upper house of parliament. If the party also was able to win control of the lower house, which selects the government, Ozawa would become prime minister.

Then a campaign fundraising scandal forced Ozawa to resign as party leader in May, creating an opening for Hatoyama. After it became clear on Sunday that voters had resoundingly rejected the LDP, Hatoyama thanked Ozawa on national television for engineering their party's victory.

As the long reign of the LDP demonstrates, Japanese voters tend to like continuity in government. It makes them anxious to toss aside the powers that be. For that reason, there are worries here about the new, largely untested leadership.

In polls and interviews, even voters who support the Democratic Party have expressed doubts about the experience and competence of its leaders. Many economic and political analysts say the party does not have a credible economic plan. It is highly doubtful, they say, that new leadership can deliver on promises to put more cash into the hands of consumers.

There are also doubts about Hatoyama's decisiveness and leadership skills. He has never held a major position in government, serving only in 1994 as a deputy cabinet spokesman for a government that soon collapsed.

But on the campaign trail this summer, his speeches have become more engaging and his message more inspiring. He has developed a reputation as a gentle man, one who kneels and talks eye-to-eye with children and with elderly people in wheelchairs.

His political vision, he says, is a "spirit of fraternity." As he explains it, this means "every person should have a bond to society by making oneself useful and being needed."

In a country with record unemployment, a chronically stagnant economy, a staggering public debt and the most aged population in world history, that vision is soon to be tested.

Special correspondent Akiko Yamamoto contributed to this report.