Fresh Political Uncertainties Lie on Thai Political Horizon

Supporters of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra reacts at the Pheu Thai Party building as Thailand's Supreme Court started reading its ruling on the former leader's wealth, in Bangkok, Thailand, 25 Feb 2010

A Thai Supreme Court verdict last week against former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, accused of abuse of power and concealing his wealth, has eased the political uncertainty that had gripped the country in recent months. But, new uncertainties have emerged as pro-Thaksin supporters vow to mobilize against the government to force new elections, as a way to bring Thaksin back to power.

The long-awaited Supreme Court verdict concerning telecom tycoon and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra ended months of political uncertainties, amid fears of fresh protests after the verdict's outcome.

Initial reaction by pro-Thaksin supporters has been muted. But threats of protests this month against Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government adds new concerns to an already troubled political landscape.

In a verdict broadcast Friday on television and radio, the panel of nine judges found Thaksin guilty of concealment of wealth and abuse of power by using his position to benefit family-linked telecommunications business.

The court called for seizure of $1.4 billion, about 60 percent of the more than $2.3 billion of family assets frozen by the state after Thaksin, who was ousted in a coup in 2006.

Thaksin faces a new round of legal cases against him and family members on charges ranging from tax avoidance to perjury.

Chulalongkorn University political scientist Pasuk Pongpaichit says the verdict ended months of uncertainty surrounding Thailland.

"Things are clearer now about what is going to happen to Mr. Thaksin. It would be very difficult for him to return to fight through his supporters here. I suspect that he will not be able to recoup any of these back," she said.

While in power for five years, Thaksin drew his support from urban and rural poor and working class people who benefited from his populist policies of low-cost health care and rural development programs.

But the urban middle and upper class accuse him of abuse of power, attacks on the media and human rights abuses. He has been in exile since 2008 to avoid a corruption verdict in absentia that sentenced him to two years jail.

In Bangkok's working-class suburb, Klong Toey, opinions were divided about the verdict. Public-opinion polls indicate fears of further potential political tension, with a majority calling for Thaksin not to appeal the decision.

Chakra Silapanongchuk, a Bangkok a taxi driver who supported the verdict, said the court ruling proved Thaksin had been corrupt, and how the former leader had used his business knowledge to carry out the corruption.

But others, such as motorbike taxi driver Sompon, said many Thais still support Thaksin, especially those from the pro-Thaskin United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship or UDD, also identified by the group's wearing of red shirts.

Sompon says he believes Thaksin faces many legal hurdles, but he is still loved by many red-shirt supporters. He said Thaksin's Peua Thai Party would win an election over the Democrat Party leader, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Political economist Pasuk Pongpaichit agrees. She says the verdict will act to draw more 'grassroots' sympathy for Thaksin. "If you go and talk to people at the ground level this verdict has actually increased sympathy to Mr. Thaksin among his supporters. So in other words he has not lost any support. So this political asset in terms of his supporters has actually increased," said Pasuk.

The UDD say it will mobilize protests against Prime Minister Abhisit's government with the goal of forcing the government to resign. Some observers fear violence, while others say it will be a major test for both the UDD's support base and for the government's survival.

Kudeb Saikrajang is a member of the parliamentary opposition Peua Thai Party who believes underlying sympathy for Thaksin triggered by the verdict will draw more people to the protests. "If they can mobilize people and stay for a while, I think the government has to make it clear when they are going, otherwise they cannot rule. Neutral people will ask then what they will do. I think the best way is to dissolve the house; then the government can save face," said Kudeb.

The protests are expected to see a return to the larger street demonstrations that were at the heart of the pro-Thaksin movement in early 2009. In April 2009 protests in Bangkok and a seaside resort where red-shirt protesters crashed a conference hall of regional leaders forcing the gathering to be canceled. Troops were called out to quell the protests.

For the city of Bangkok, questions remain whether fresh street protests will end peacefully or push the government to again use emergency legislation to quell violence.

Thailand coup rumours circle Thaksin assets ruling

By Rachel Harvey BBC News, Bangkok

Thailand's army has a history of taking matters into its own hands

Thailand's political divisions are under scrutiny once more.

The Supreme Court ruled on Friday to seize $1.4bn (£910m) in contested assets belonging to the family of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006.

Local media have been rife with speculation that the verdict might be the catalyst for further violence involving his supporters.

And, despite robust denials from the current army chief, there are persistent rumours that another coup could be in the offing.

Confident steps

Thailand's military has long played a pivotal role in the country. Its influence stretches far beyond traditional realms of defence.

The latest graduation day at Bangkok's military cadet school was an event full of pride and possibility.

More than 500 freshly minted cadets, destined for the ranks of the army, navy, air force and police, all in identical tight white shirts and peaked caps, marched across the parade ground.

These were the confident steps of Thailand's future military leaders, their polished shoes glinting in the sun.

The Thai people know very well that a year under the military regime didn't do any better than any other type of regime Suchit Bunbongkarn Military expert

Piyachart Siriboon finished top of his class. But his ambitions do not end here - he wants to rise to the highest ranks.

He is well on track - and certainly on message

"Our main duty is to protect the nation, the king and the people," he said.

"We also have other roles, less important, to help development in the country and improve lives."

The glaring omission in that list is any mention of a duty to serve the elected government.

Show of strength

The oversight is telling. Thailand's military has a history of taking matters into its own hands, most recently in September 2006.

Mr Thaksin has vowed to continue his fight to return to politics

One of the justifications offered by the coup leaders then was that Mr Thaksin had abused his position as prime minister to enrich himself and his family.

That argument was at the centre of the case before the Supreme Court.

Meanwhile Mr Thaksin still has influence even from exile in Dubai.

At a recent business dinner at a Bangkok hotel he was the VIP speaker, joining the guests via satellite link.

Defiant as ever, he berated the current government, a shaky coalition installed by parliament rather than elected by popular mandate.

His image stared down from screens all around the huge ballroom as Mr Thaksin vowed to continue what he called his fight for justice.

Show of strength

The police and army have been practicing riot control drills amid warnings of possible violence from Mr Thaksin's supporters should the court verdict go against him.

This is a very deliberate show of strength designed to send a clear message.

Disturbances will not be tolerated and Thailand's security forces stand ready to intervene if necessary.

Our role is to protect, and anyone who wants to get political should resign Piyachart Siriboon, cadet

But despite the recent hyperbole, that does not necessarily mean another coup is being hatched.

Seasoned observers, like Suchit Bunbongkarn, a military expert at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn university, says times have changed.

"They [the military] know quite well that if they launch a coup, it doesn't mean they can rule the country," he said.

"And the Thai people know very well that a year under the military regime didn't do any better than any other type of regime.

"So they tend to think, 'OK, let's give democracy a try'."

Military cadets like Piyachart Siriboon seem to be in tune with that new thinking.

"The police and army should not get involved in politics," he said firmly.

"Our role is to protect, and anyone who wants to get political should resign."

The young generation seems to be embracing new ways of thinking.

But in the current febrile atmosphere, many Thais will still question whether the old ways of the old guard have really been left behind.

Thailand top court seizes part of Thaksin fortune

Security was increased in Thailand ahead of the court's verdict

Thailand's Supreme Court has ruled that former PM Thaksin Shinawatra's family should be stripped of more than half a contested $2.3bn fortune.

The court said $1.4bn (£910m) of the assets were gained illegally through conflict of interest when Mr Thaksin was prime minister.

The funds were frozen after Mr Thaksin's elected government was overthrown in a military coup in 2006.

Mr Thaksin, who is living abroad, has denied any wrongdoing.

The Supreme Court said "to seize all the money would be unfair since some of it was made before Thaksin became prime minister".

ANALYSIS By Vaudine England, BBC News, Bangkok By choosing to confiscate some, but not all of Mr Thaksin's known assets, the court has managed to dampen arguments from his "red shirt" supporters that the entire judiciary is suborned to a military-bureaucratic elite which intends to finish off Mr Thaksin once and for all. But it will also weaken the government's demonisation of Mr Thaksin. It appears to be saying that the former prime minister did cheat on the hiding and increase of his fortune, but he was significantly and legitimately wealthy when he entered office. He remains a rich man by any standards. What this verdict will not do is heal the divisions in this country, polarised by Mr Thaksin's hugely popular appeal and the threat this poses to the military-bureaucratic elite. The 2006 coup that deposed him continues to damage the legitimacy of the current military-backed government of Abhisit Vejajjiva - this basic issue also goes well beyond one man and his money. Ruling unlikely to heal divide

The court took several hours to deliver its verdict, with security forces on high alert amid government predictions of violence by Mr Thaksin's red-shirted supporters if the court decision went against him.

The judges said that Mr Thaksin shaped government mobile phone and satellite communications policy to benefit his firms.

He abused his power to benefit telecoms company Shin Corp, which he owned then, earning wealth from shares sales in the company through "inappropriate means", they ruled.

The sale of Shin Corp to Singapore state investment firm Temasek in January 2006 was one of the main catalysts for widespread protests calling for Mr Thaksin to resign, and the government applied for the seizure of the proceeds from the sale.

The court dismissed defence arguments that the anti-corruption commission that instigated the proceedings against Mr Thaksin was illegitimate.

Mr Thaksin addressed his supporters from Dubai after the verdict.

"This is total political involvement. The government knew the result in advance," he said, according to Associated Press.

"I've been prepared for the result since yesterday. I knew that I would get hit, but they are kind enough to give me back 30 billion [baht]."

He had previously told them he would continue his political fight against the "military-bureaucratic elite" that deposed him - with or without his family fortune.

He has said the money he and his family earned was acquired legally. The full extent of fortune is unknown, but he is thought to be very wealthy.

Tensions in Thailand remain high. Tens of thousands of extra police have been placed in and around the capital, and in areas of the north-east of the country where some of Mr Thaksin's supporters are based.

THAKSIN TIMELINE 2001: Elected prime minister 19 Sept 2006: Ousted in military coup 25 Sept 2006: Corruption investigation begins 11 June 2007: Thaksin family assets frozen 25 Aug 2008: Prosecutors ask Supreme Court to seize frozen assets 21 Oct 2008: Sentenced in absentia to two years for conflict of interest in land deal 26 Feb 2010: Court seizes $1.4bn of $2.3bn in contested assets Coup rumours circle ruling Profile: Thaksin Shinawatra

There were only small numbers of Thaksin supporters outside the court. The pro-Thaksin United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), which leads the red shirts, has said it has no plans for any demonstration until mid-March.

Local media had predicted huge disruption, counting down to what they called "judgement day".

The judges looked at whether Mr Thaksin illegally deposited his fortune with family members because he was not allowed to hold company shares while prime minister, and whether his administration implemented policies to benefit his family's businesses.

They have also considered whether telecoms liberalisation measures unfairly benefited the country's main mobile phone service provider, then controlled by Mr Thaksin's family.

And they have investigated whether he unfairly promoted a $127m low-interest loan to neighbouring Burma to benefit a satellite communications company also controlled by his family.

Thai Political Uncertainty Causes Investor Concern

Ron Corben | Bangkok22 February 2010

Photo: AP

Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra (file)

Thailand's finance minister says the political uncertainty gripping the country could damage economic growth and investor confidence. Some investors are concerned a Thai Supreme Court verdict against former Thai Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, due later this week could lead to protests that could destabilize the fragile economy.

Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij warned Monday that political uncertainties in the country could adversely affect economic growth.

Korn's comments come just ahead of a Friday Supreme Court verdict on whether former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is guilty of corruption.

If the court finds Mr. Thaksin guilty of corruption, the state could seize up to two billion dollars worth of illegally acquired assets. Some observers believe a guilty verdict could also lead to fresh street demonstrations by his supporters, known for wearing red shirts.

Mr. Thaksin was ousted from power in a coup in 2006. Two years later he fled Thailand ahead of another conviction on corruption charges. A court sentenced the former prime minister to a two year jail term in absentia.

Thai business and industrial leaders say the business climate and the economy could be hit if protests erupt.

Krianglit Sukcharoensin, president of the 500-member Plastic Industries Association says the uncertainties have undermined investor and business confidence.

"The international market they are not confident we can supply product 'just in time' for their requirement of their demand. They will switch and then order from another place," said Krianglit. "Then the investor will suffer so we will have to see."

The concerns from business leaders come just as the economy appears to be recovering from the global recession, on the strength of strong exports. The government has predicted a better than four percent growth for 2010.

But analysts warn the gains may be lost amid fears a guilty verdict will lead to potential violence from pro-Thaksin supporters. The Thai share market has weakened due to the jittery climate.

Vikas Kawatra, head of institutional research for Kim Eng Securities, says the local share market's outlook depends on Thaksin's future plans after the verdict.

"It pretty much depends on what Thaskin will do next," said Vikas. "One thing is for sure, is that he's not going to like it and the extent of money confiscated will increase his frustration but diminish his ability to come back."

Concerns over possible violence has led to the United States, Britain and Australia to issue travel advisories warning their nationals to avoid locations where protests could occur. The tourism industry, with around 14 million arrivals annually, accounts for about six percent of Thailand's national output.

Richard Chapman, general manager of the Sheraton Grande Hotel, says the tourism industry has suffered in recent times because reports of political instability has undermined traveler confidence.

"I'm just hoping and praying that our friends in the world of communications and media will give a fairly good ride over the next few weeks and we can come out of it no worse that we are today," said Chapman.

Potential damage to the economy was evident in 2008 when anti-Thaksin protesters occupied a government administration building against pro-Thaksin government steps to open the way for his return to the country. Later the anti-government protesters occupied the international airport for a week at a cost of millions of dollars in lost tourism and trade revenue.

Mr. Thaksin gained popularity among the urban and rural poor for his populist economic policies. But the urban middle class, that largely backed the 2006 coup, accused him of corruption and abuse of power.

Cambodia Stirs Tensions With Embrace of Former Thai Leader Thaksin - NYTimes.com

Image via Wikipedia

By SETH MYDANS

BANGKOK — In one of his most provocative moves since being ousted in a coup three years ago, Thailand’s fugitive former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, is visiting neighboring Cambodia this week, stirring tensions between the nations and invigorating his political supporters at home.

Speaking in Cambodia’s capital, Phnom Penh, on Thursday, he accused the Thai government of “false patriotism” in long-running frictions that include an armed standoff at a disputed 11th-century temple on the nations’ common border.

But the provocation was not his words so much as his presence and his warm welcome in Cambodia, the closest he has come to his homeland as he has circled the world, from Hong Kong to London to Nicaragua to Montenegro and now to a refuge in Dubai. While he insists he wants to go home, Mr. Thaksin has been on the run as the Thai government seeks his extradition on a conviction for corruption while he was in office.

In Phnom Penh, he will be looking over the shoulders of regional heads of state, including those of Cambodia and Thailand, as they gather Friday in Singapore, just a short flight away, for a regional meeting.

“Thaksin is up to no good,” said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an expert on Thailand at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. “I would say Thaksin is on a new offensive.

“I think both of them, their moves, have been perfectly calculated,” he added. He was referring to Mr. Thaksin and to his host, Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia, who appeared to be using the visit to tweak his counterparts across the border.

On Wednesday, Cambodia rejected Thailand’s demand for Mr. Thaksin’s extradition.

Mr. Pavin said that if Mr. Thaksin could show the public that the Thai government “is incapable and unable to solve this crisis, then this will be a slap in the face of the government and will raise questions about the legitimacy of the government.”

Mr. Thaksin’s visit has escalated a confrontation between the nations that began with a dispute in 2008 over sovereignty at the Preah Vihear temple, where the two armies have fought several bloody skirmishes and remain on alert.

The two nations recalled their ambassadors last week after Mr. Hun Sen announced the appointment of Mr. Thaksin as an “economic adviser,” and Thailand said it would scrap an agreement governing negotiations over disputed offshore oil and gas deposits.

In its diplomatic note rejecting the demand for Mr. Thaksin’s extradition on Wednesday, the Cambodian government noted, in capital letters, that he had been forced from office although he had been “OVERWHELMINGLY and DEMOCRATICALLY elected by the Thai people.”

On Thursday both nations expelled an additional diplomat in a tit-for tat escalation of the diplomatic row.

Mr. Hun Sen may be looking to his own long-term interests and placing a bet on Mr. Thaksin as the future leader of Thailand, Mr. Pavin said.

In Thailand, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Democrat Party remain politically weak, and many analysts believe that supporters of Mr. Thaksin would be likely to win any new election.

Mr. Hun Sen, who greeted Mr. Thaksin on Monday with an embrace and a vow of “eternal friendship,” seemed to taunt Mr. Abhisit, who took office in a parliamentary vote last December, with the backing of the military and without a popular vote. He was an indirect beneficiary of the coup that ousted Mr. Thaksin.

“If Abhisit is so capable, why not dissolve the Parliament and call for a new election?” Mr. Hun Sen asked Wednesday. “What is he afraid of? I am the prime minister of Cambodia who received two-thirds of the vote, and how many votes did Abhisit receive? Or did he steal his seat from other people?”

Mr. Hun Sen, 58, and Mr. Abhisit, 45, come from different worlds, the first of them raised as a barefoot temple boy who took up arms for the Khmer Rouge, the other an Eton and Oxford man, fluent in English and in Western ways.

If Mr. Thaksin’s intention was to discomfit the Thai government and keep himself on the front pages of newspapers at home, he seems to have succeeded.

“Rejected!” read a banner headline, in red type, in The Nation, a daily newspaper, on Thursday, referring to Cambodia’s refusal to extradite Mr. Thaksin.

Filling most of the front page under the headline was a facsimile of Cambodia’s diplomatic note, with its capitalized reference to the “ABSOLUTE REALITIES” of Thai politics and an implication of Mr. Thaksin’s legitimacy as prime minister.

The newspaper also printed Mr. Thaksin’s schedule in Cambodia for the next few days: a visit to the ancient temples at Angkor, a round of golf with Mr. Hun Sen and a possible meeting with supporters bused in from Thailand.

After that, it said, renewing the mystery that Mr. Thaksin has cultivated, the schedule simply noted, “Depart Cambodia for an unknown destination.”

Thai Protesters Gather in Bangkok

By Alastair Leithead
BBC Asia correspondent, Bangkok

Thousands of political demonstrators have gathered in Bangkok in the first mass action since the violence that erupted in the city in April.

Supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, wearing red shirts, were to present a petition to a representative of the royal household.

They say more than five million people have signed it, asking the king to pardon Mr Thaksin.

He was convicted on conflict of interest charges and now lives abroad.

The thousands of demonstrators are a reminder that the deep-rooted political divide in Thailand, which fuelled the violence of April and brought tens of thousands out on to the streets, has not gone away.

The protesters say the five million petition signatures are an indication of the huge level of support for Mr Thaksin.

He has been unable to return to Thailand since the conviction but has stirred up the crowds at anti-government political rallies through telephone calls and video links.

Many of his supporters from the poor rural north and north-east of Thailand are angry at the way their opposing yellow-shirted protesters forced political change by blockading Bangkok's international airports last year and yet have not been punished.

Current Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who came to power with the backing of the yellow shirts, has warned the protesters not to resort to violence.

But an unconnected corruption case at the Supreme Court against a senior government figure is expected to attract an opposing group of demonstrators in the same part of the city, so police have been deployed to prevent clashes between the two sides.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia-pacific/8204589.stm

Published: 2009/08/17 04:15:41 GMT