Jan 11, 2010

Gay marriage, Perry v. Schwarzenegger, and the Supreme Court

The current United States Supreme Court, the h...Image via Wikipedia

Is it too soon to petition the Supreme Court on gay marriage?

by Margaret Talbot

On January 11th, a remarkable legal case opens in a San Francisco courtroom—on its way, it seems almost certain, to the Supreme Court. Perry v. Schwarzenegger challenges the constitutionality of Proposition 8, the California referendum that, in November, 2008, overturned a state Supreme Court decision allowing same-sex couples to marry. Its lead lawyers are unlikely allies: Theodore B. Olson, the former solicitor general under President George W. Bush, and a prominent conservative; and David Boies, the Democratic trial lawyer who was his opposing counsel in Bush v. Gore. The two are mounting an ambitious case that pointedly circumvents the incremental, narrowly crafted legal gambits and the careful state-by-state strategy that leading gay-rights organizations have championed in the fight for marriage equality. The Olson-Boies team hopes for a ruling that will transform the legal and social landscape nationwide, something on the order of Brown v. Board of Education, in 1954, or Loving v. Virginia, the landmark 1967 Supreme Court ruling that invalidated laws prohibiting interracial marriage.

Olson’s interest in this case has puzzled quite a few people. What’s in it for him? Is he sincere? Does he really think he can sway the current Court? But when I spoke with Olson, who is sixty-nine, in early December, he sounded confident and impassioned; the case clearly fascinated him both as an intellectual challenge and as a way to make history. “The Loving case was forty-two years ago,” he said, perched on the edge of his chair in the law offices of Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, in Washington, D.C., where he is a partner. “It’s inconceivable to us these days to say that a couple of a different racial background can’t get married.” Olson wore a brightly striped shirt and a paisley tie, without a jacket; there was something folksy in his speech, which reminded me that he’s a Westerner, who grew up and was educated in Northern California. He said, “Separate is not equal. Civil unions and domestic partnerships are not the same as marriage. We’re not inventing any new right, or creating a new right, or asking the courts to recognize a new right. The Supreme Court has said over and over and over again that marriage is a fundamental right, and although our opponents say, ‘Well, that’s always been involving a man and a woman,’ when the Supreme Court has talked about it they’ve said it’s an associational right, it’s a liberty right, it’s a privacy right, and it’s an expression of your identity, which is all wrapped up in the Constitution.” The Justices of the Supreme Court, Olson said, “are individuals who will consider this seriously, and give it good attention,” and he was optimistic that he could persuade them. (The losing side in San Francisco will likely appeal to the Ninth Circuit, and from there the case could proceed to the Supreme Court.) Olson’s self-assurance has a sound basis: he has argued fifty-six cases before the high court—he was one of the busiest lawyers before the Supreme Court bench last year—and prevailed in forty-four of them. Justices Sandra Day O’Connor and Anthony Kennedy attended his wedding three years ago, in Napa. Olson said that he wanted the gay-marriage case to be a “teaching opportunity, so people will listen to us talk about the importance of treating people with dignity and respect and equality and affection and love and to stop discriminating against people on the basis of sexual orientation.”

If the Perry case succeeds before the Supreme Court, it could mean that gay marriage would be permitted not only in California but in every state. And, if the Court recognized homosexuals as indistinguishable from heterosexuals for the purposes of marriage law, it would be hard, if not impossible, to uphold any other laws that discriminated against people on the basis of sexual orientation. However, a loss for Olson and Boies could be a major setback to the movement for marriage equality. Soon after Olson and Boies filed the case, last May, some leading gay-rights organizations—among them the A.C.L.U., Human Rights Campaign, Lambda Legal, and the National Center for Lesbian Rights—issued a statement condemning such efforts. The odds of success for a suit weren’t good, the groups said, because the “Supreme Court typically does not get too far ahead of either public opinion or the law in the majority of states.” The legal precedent that these groups were focussed on wasn’t Loving v. Virginia but, rather, Bowers v. Hardwick, the 1986 Supreme Court decision that stunned gay-rights advocates by upholding Georgia’s antiquated law against sodomy. It was seventeen years before the Court was willing to revisit the issue, in Lawrence v. Texas, though by then only thirteen states still had anti-sodomy statutes; this time, the Court overturned the laws, with a 6–3 vote and an acerbic dissent from Justice Antonin Scalia, who declared that the Court had aligned itself with the “homosexual agenda,” adding, “Many Americans do not want persons who openly engage in homosexual conduct as partners in their business, as scoutmasters for their children, as teachers in their children’s schools, or as boarders in their home. They view this as protecting themselves and their families from a lifestyle that they believe to be immoral and destructive.”

Seventeen years was a long time to wait. “A loss now may make it harder to go to court later,” the activists’ statement read. “It will take us a lot longer to get a good Supreme Court decision if the Court has to overrule itself.” Besides, the groups argued, “We lost the right to marry in California at the ballot box. That’s where we need to win it back.” Plenty of gay-marriage supporters agreed that it was smarter to wait until the movement had been successful in more states—and, possibly, the composition of the Supreme Court had shifted. (During the last year of a second Obama term, Scalia would be eighty-one.)

By August, the inevitability of the Olson-Boies suit had become clear, and several of the groups decided, grudgingly, to support the effort. But, when they petitioned to be intervenors in the suit, Olson and Boies opposed the move. Olson told me that their inclusion would have made the case too fragmented, and he wanted a “unified, controlled, consistent, on-message approach.” The presiding judge in the case, Vaughn Walker, sided with Olson and Boies, though he did allow the City of San Francisco to join their suit.

Nobody seems to be saying anymore, as some skeptics did initially, that Olson was deliberately setting up the gay-marriage movement for a fall. But doubts remain. William Eskridge, a professor of constitutional law at Yale University, and a prominent advocate of same-sex marriage, says that he is now “even more pessimistic” about the lawsuit’s chances, given that, in recent months, voters in Maine approved a referendum overturning a same-sex-marriage law, and the state senates of New York and New Jersey opted not to allow gay marriages. “A question that so evenly but intensely divides the country is not one that should be decided by the courts nationwide,” Eskridge said. “It’s the mirror image of the mistake the Bush Administration made by trying to introduce a constitutional amendment to define marriage as between a man and a woman.” He added, “It is just not something that this Supreme Court is going to deliver on at this point.” It’s a peculiar situation: while gay-rights activists advocate judicial restraint, solicitude for the popular will, and a gradual, state-centric approach, Ted Olson argues, in the urgent language of civil rights, for a sweeping, federal solution on their behalf.

At present, only five states—Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Iowa—permit gay couples to marry. (Five others, including California, have civil-union or domestic-partnership laws, which confer benefits and some official recognition without the title, and freighted significance, of marriage.) Since 1993, when the Supreme Court of Hawaii surprised just about everybody by finding that a state ban on gay marriage was discriminatory, twenty-nine states have passed amendments prohibiting gay marriage. (Most states had seen no need to be explicit on that point before.) And in 1996 Congress passed, and President Bill Clinton signed, the Defense of Marriage Act, which defined marriage as between a man and a woman. Seen from this angle, an incipient movement has been countered by a formidable backlash.

Yet there is a countervailing story, one that points to an inevitable shift toward acceptance of same-sex marriage. In 1993, few Americans had heard of same-sex marriage. Now some forty per cent of Americans support marriage for gay couples, and more than fifty per cent support civil unions. Many more people condone gay marriage today than condoned interracial marriage at the time of Loving v. Virginia, when only twenty per cent of Americans told Gallup that they approved of it.

Younger Americans endorse gay marriage at strikingly higher rates than older ones. According to a 2009 study underwritten by the Pew Charitable Trusts, fifty-eight per cent of Americans between the ages of eighteen and twenty-nine support gay marriage, compared to twenty-two per cent of Americans sixty-five and older. And the age divide cuts across some ideological lines as well. In a 2008 study, twenty-six per cent of white evangelicals under the age of thirty supported full marriage rights for same-sex couples, while only nine per cent of older evangelicals did.

Patrick Egan, a political scientist at New York University, and Nathaniel Persily, a law professor at Columbia University, who together have studied public opinion on gay rights, believe that in five years a majority of Americans will favor same-sex marriage—the result of generational replacement and what Persily calls “attitude adjustment.” When people change their mind on this issue, they tend to change it toward marriage equality. The more striking conversion stories of the past couple of years conform to this pattern: Bill Clinton saying that he was “wrong” in opposing gay marriage; Dick Cheney, whose daughter Mary is a lesbian with a partner and two children, declaring that “people ought to be free to enter into any kind of union they wish”; Jerry Sanders, the Republican mayor of San Diego, explaining tearfully at a press conference that he couldn’t look his lesbian daughter and others “in the face and tell them that their relationships . . . were any less meaningful than the marriage I share with my wife.”

The generational divide does not produce such results for all social issues. On abortion, for instance, younger Americans tend to be less supportive of unfettered rights. Nor does gay marriage seem to be a life-cycle issue—one that people become more conservative about as they age. People who went to high schools where there were gay-straight alliances, had friends who shared their coming-out stories, and grew up in a culture populated with gay celebrities simply feel more comfortable with the idea of same-sex couples marrying.

In some ways, though, this trend makes the Olson-Boies suit more complicated. Why push the Court far ahead of public opinion if public opinion is moving in that direction anyway? Even a victory for Olson and Boies could cut one of two ways. It could be like Brown v. Board of Education, which accelerated a gradual shift in public opinion. Or it could be like Roe v. Wade, in 1973, which interrupted a move toward abortion rights, and froze public opinion in two polarized camps. Olson is undaunted. “I have spent a fair amount of time reading Dr. King’s response to people who said, ‘People aren’t ready for this,’ ” he said. “His ‘Letter from a Birmingham Jail,’ one of the more moving documents in history, addresses this. If people are suffering and being hurt by discrimination, and their children and their families are . . . then who are we as lawyers to say, ‘Wait ten years’? ”

The case that became Perry v. Schwarzenegger would probably never have materialized had it not been for a young political strategist in Hollywood named Chad Griffin. On Election Night in November, 2008, Griffin was watching the returns at a San Francisco hotel with Gavin Newsom, the city’s mayor, who, in a short-lived experiment in 2004, had presided over same-sex marriages at City Hall; Newsom’s wife, Jennifer; Bruce Cohen, a filmmaker who produced “Milk” and “American Beauty” and is a high-profile gay activist in Hollywood; and Kristina Schake, Griffin’s business partner and best friend. Like many gay Democrats that night, Griffin was exultant about Barack Obama winning the Presidency but despondent that Proposition 8 had passed. Griffin recalls “going into a forty-eight-hour spiral of depression. All I could think about was the message this sent to the kid I used to be, growing up in Arkansas.”

But Griffin is not a guy who stays depressed—or at least merely depressed—for long. A week after the election, he was having lunch at the Polo Lounge, in the Beverly Hills Hotel, with Schake, discussing strategy with the actor and director Rob Reiner, for whom Griffin had formerly run a foundation, and Reiner’s wife, Michele. This was no idle exercise: Griffin had played a big role in the “No on 8” campaign, enlisting donations and support from prominent Californians, including the actor Brad Pitt, the real-estate heir and film producer Steve Bing, and the supermarket mogul Ron Burkle, who hosted a fund-raiser at his Los Angeles mansion. Griffin has orchestrated successful statewide ballot initiatives promoting clean energy and early-childhood education, and his clients include Maria Shriver, the First Lady of California. Still, nobody at the Polo Lounge lunch had alighted on what seemed like a winning plan until an acquaintance of Michele Reiner’s, Kate Moulene, stopped by the table, and heard what they were talking about. Later, Moulene told the Reiners that they should get in touch with her former brother-in-law, Ted Olson. You’d be surprised, Moulene told them—he’s with you on this.

Griffin related this story when we met in the restaurant at the Chateau Marmont hotel, one of those Hollywood landmarks fetishized by the young. Griffin is a slim thirty-six-year-old, and has close-cropped hair and nerdy-chic glasses. In the ostentatiously dim restaurant, the bright-white tennis shoes that he wore with his jeans and blue blazer were like runway lights guiding me to our table.

Griffin came out in his late twenties, and he is dating, but he does not have a partner. Laws like Proposition 8 repel him primarily because they are a form of licensed hostility. Ask him why “marriage equality”—the term he always uses—is so important, and the first thing he’s likely to tell you is how much higher the suicide and homelessness rates are for gay teen-agers than they are for their straight peers. “I’ll be fine if I can’t marry the person I love,” he told me. “I have a good life. I’m lucky. But there are consequences to inequality.”

The idea of a federal lawsuit had appealed to him immediately. He felt that it had been a strategic and moral mistake for the marriage-equality movement to count on ballot initiatives. “One’s fundamental constitutional rights should never be subject to a majority vote,” he said. “That’s what the Constitution is for. That’s what the courts are for.” He hadn’t given up on politics: it was important to elect people who supported gay marriage and to vote out politicians who didn’t. The movement, he said, had to “create more fear of the consequences” for Democratic and Republican politicians alike. But he was through with ballot initiatives: they were the strategy of the anti-gay lobby, and fighting them “forces us to play on the opposition’s turf.” Griffin’s side had spent some sixty million dollars campaigning against Proposition 8. “What we need is to aggressively execute our own strategy,” he said. “The only way you win a battle of this size is always playing on the offensive.”

Griffin is fond of saying, “I was born in a war room,” by which he means that his first job, at the age of nineteen, was working on Bill Clinton’s 1992 Presidential campaign. He was raised in Hope, Arkansas, and later in Arkadelphia, by a family of schoolteachers, principals, and counsellors. For a while, an aunt was married to a state representative, and Griffin loved travelling around with him, handing out matchbooks to prospective voters. He had earned less than a year’s worth of credits at Ouachita Baptist University when Clinton’s campaign took off, and he became a full-time volunteer. “If my governor hadn’t been running for President at that moment, I might be a manager at Wal-Mart today,” Griffin said. “I was Employee of the Month there once.” Instead, he took a job as a staff assistant in the White House press office, under Dee Dee Myers. He was one of the youngest staffers ever to work in the West Wing.

Griffin met Rob Reiner when he was assigned to show him around the White House; Reiner was getting ready to direct “The American President” at the time. After finishing college, at Georgetown, Griffin moved West to work for Reiner, running an organization devoted to health care and preschool for all children under five. But the Clinton “war room” remained Griffin’s model of how to make noise in the world. “Every single hour was strategic,” he recalled. “I was this little freakin’ kid hanging around watching Paul Begala and James Carville and George Stephanopoulos. They did not let the opposition gain an inch, and if it did they knocked it down with firepower.” As Griffin saw it, “Our movement has been satisfied with small steps, but we can no longer be afraid of big steps.”

He spoke with Olson on the phone, and after that they met in Washington. “At first, I was in a bit of shock that I was talking to this person I’d loved to hate from a distance,” Griffin said of Olson. “This, after all, was the man who had given us eight years of Bush.” Still, he found a receptive listener in Olson, who had demurred when he was approached about defending Proposition 8 in the California Supreme Court. (Kenneth Starr took the job.) “I wouldn’t want to be on that side,” Olson told me. He had some history of opposing discrimination against gays—while working in the Reagan Justice Department, he wrote a legal opinion arguing that an openly gay prosecutor could not be denied a promotion on the basis of his sexual orientation—but he had never litigated anything related to the subject. Indeed, several of the cases he’d argued before the Supreme Court would have put him at odds with some of the civil-rights advocates he was now loosely allied with: on behalf of the State of Virginia, he argued against allowing women into the Virginia Military Institute; during the Reagan Administration, he led an assault against affirmative-action “set-aside” programs.

In deciding whether to take the case, Olson talked with his wife, a tax lawyer—and a Democrat—named Lady Booth Olson. (Olson’s third wife, the conservative commentator Barbara Olson, was killed on September 11, 2001, in the plane that struck the Pentagon.) He also consulted with his mother, and with his son and daughter, who are both in their forties. The more he considered the idea, the more he thought that “this was the right side to be on”; besides, it would be “an intellectually challenging venture.”

Griffin and Olson agreed that federal lawsuits were inevitably going to be filed on this issue, and that gave them a sense of urgency. As Olson told me, “There are millions of people in this country who would like to be married—in California, in Arkansas, wherever. Some couple is going to go to some lawyer and that lawyer is going to bring the case. And that case could be the case that goes to the Supreme Court. So, if there’s going to be a case, let it be us. Because we will staff it—we’ve got fifteen, twenty lawyers working on this case and we have the resources to do it, and we have the experience in the Supreme Court.” Olson went on, “We’ve all seen people bringing cases in the Supreme Court who don’t know what they’re doing.” Proposition 8 was the basis for a shrewd lawsuit, he reasoned, because it had created three unequal classes of people in California: “The eighteen thousand or so gay couples who were already married got to remain married. But if they get divorced they can’t get remarried! Is that irrational, or what? Then you have heterosexual couples who can get married, and gays and lesbians who didn’t get married before Prop. 8 and now can’t.”

For the case, Griffin wanted, as he put it, “the lawyers Microsoft is going to want, not the lawyers who are going to do it pro bono.” And for that he needed to raise money. He formed a foundation, the American Foundation for Equal Rights, whose logo evokes the American flag, not a rainbow. He and Schake sit on the board, along with the Reiners, Bruce Cohen, and Dustin Lance Black, the screenwriter of “Milk,” the 2008 bio-pic about Harvey Milk. In four weeks last spring, Griffin told me, he raised “millions of dollars”—“all from individual donors who have a history of caring about this issue. Less than a dozen. Gay and straight.”

Olson believed, as he recalled, “that it would be very important to balance my reputation as a conservative . . . with someone who had a reputation as being on the other side of the political spectrum.” It would send a powerful message of bipartisanship, Olson felt, and “allay people’s suspicions of ‘What in the world is Ted Olson doing?’ ” During a conference call with Griffin, Reiner, and others, Olson suggested David Boies. Though Boies had lost to Olson in Bush v. Gore, his track record as a litigator is formidable—he is known as a fierce cross-examiner. In the last few years, he has successfully defended Nascar against antitrust charges, won for American Express a record four-billion-dollar settlement from other credit-card companies, and represented the filmmaker Michael Moore when the Treasury Department opened an investigation of a trip that Moore had taken to Cuba. Olson had become friends with Boies, and thought he was “fun to work with.” Griffin and the others were enthusiastic about Boies, and Olson recalls that when he approached him “there wasn’t a moment’s hesitation.”

Boies told me that the issue had been on his mind ever since 2004, when San Francisco had its brief experiment with gay marriage: “I remember being struck by all those powerful images of people from all over the country flying to San Francisco and lining up to get marriage licenses. If it was something that was really so important to people, it was really something that needed to be addressed.”

Meanwhile, Griffin had begun discreetly looking around for potential plaintiffs—same-sex couples who wanted to get married in California but hadn’t done so in the six-month window between the state Supreme Court decision and the passing of Proposition 8. The plaintiffs needed to be willing to be the public faces for a court case that could take years to resolve, and that many gay activists considered unwise. It isn’t easy to find the right plaintiffs for a high-profile constitutional case. There have been plaintiffs before the Supreme Court who made moving and stalwart examples of the principle they were upholding, and plaintiffs who faltered on the job. Mildred and Richard Loving, the interracial couple, were close to ideal. They were blessed with a name so perfectly suited to their case that, had they been fictional characters, you would never have believed it. And they were not professional activists. He was a white bricklayer and she was a homemaker of African-American and Native American descent, and all they wanted was to be married and to live in Virginia, near their families. “Tell the Court I love my wife,” Richard Loving said to one of his lawyers. “It is just unfair that I can’t live with her in Virginia.”

Though it doesn’t matter from a legal point of view what happens to plaintiffs after their case is resolved, their post-Supreme Court life can affect how people view their cause. The Lovings, who had three children, remained married until Richard Loving died, in a car accident, in 1975. They seldom gave interviews, though on the fortieth anniversary of the decision Mildred Loving issued a statement: “Not a day goes by that I don’t think of Richard and our love, our right to marry, and how much it meant to me to have that freedom to marry the person precious to me, even if others thought he was the ‘wrong kind of person’ for me to marry. I believe all Americans, no matter their race, no matter their sex, no matter their sexual orientation, should have that same freedom to marry.”

Norma McCorvey, who later revealed herself as the Jane Roe in Roe v. Wade, was a more problematic plaintiff. A former carnival worker who’d had an unusually rough life, McCorvey was twenty-one and pregnant with her third unplanned child when she became a plaintiff for Roe. She never had the abortion she’d been seeking—her case was decided too late—and she gave the baby up for adoption. In the nineties, she renounced her role in Roe, saying she’d been led astray by her crusading young lawyers, and began to work for the anti-abortion group Operation Rescue. In 2003, she even petitioned a federal district court to overturn Roe. McCorvey was the sort of plaintiff who should have been better vetted, and whose unhappy trajectory became a metaphor for ambivalence about abortion itself.

In a case about marriage rights, lawyers want to find couples who are likely to stay together—not always an easy prediction to make, especially given the stresses of the case. As Mary Bonauto, the lawyer who brought the 2003 suit that legalized same-sex marriage in Massachusetts, told me, “You want people who can withstand the rigors of a multiyear process.” You don’t need “picture-perfect people,” Bonauto said, but you do need the “kind of people you wouldn’t mind sitting in a room and chatting with, no matter who you are. We are always concerned about people who are overeager to be plaintiffs, and people who are huge activists.” Ideally, you want people who are just “living their lives” but are running up against a clearly defined problem because of a misguided law. You don’t want glib types who are too fluent in movement jargon, but you do want people who can talk easily in a courtroom or to reporters, without stumbling into reality-TV-style oversharing about their romantic life.

One doesn’t advertise for plaintiffs in a case like this. Instead, Griffin got in touch with people he knew, or knew of. As he put it, “I’m gay. I live in California. I know a lot of gay couples.” One day, he was speaking on the phone with Kris Perry, a woman he and Reiner had known for years, because she was active in children’s-policy debates and was now the executive director of First 5, a state agency that promotes health and education for young kids. Perry and her partner, Sandy Stier, a tech-support manager who works for Alameda County, live in Berkeley, and are raising four boys, ranging in age from fifteen to twenty-one. Griffin asked Perry if she might be interested in working on a big project to restore marriage equality. As Perry recently recalled to me, she wasn’t sure until he explained that it was a federal lawsuit. “Oh,” she recalls thinking. “You mean there might be a permanent solution? We get to talk about this in a nonpolitical way? Now I’m really interested.” As Perry sees it, “A lot of people out there have gay-marriage fatigue. Sandy and I even have gay-marriage fatigue! With every political defeat, there is a certain level of humiliation.” Perry and Stier arranged to come home early from work one day to discuss the prospect with each other, and with each of their children. One of the boys asked if their case was kind of like Brown v. Board of Education, which he was studying in school. Yes, they told him. Perry and Stier figured that they were in a better position than a lot of other committed couples to do something like this. “We’re in stable parts of our careers,” Perry said. “Our children aren’t really young, we live in a really liberal place, and we weren’t worried about a lot of rejection from neighbors and friends.”

Griffin also approached Paul Katami and Jeff Zarrillo, a couple in the San Fernando Valley, whom he knew through mutual friends. Katami, who is a fitness expert and a consultant, and Zarrillo, who works for a chain of movie theatres, are both in their late thirties, have been together for almost nine years, and are good-looking, polished, and articulate. They were the kind of obviously well-suited couple whom friends and family felt comfortable nudging to just get married already, and they were both severely disappointed when Proposition 8 foreclosed the possibility. The idea that marriage equality “could take a generation if we continue to go state by state,” as Zarrillo said, frustrated them. When Griffin told them about the lawsuit, they liked the idea of being involved in something that “put a respectable face to the fight,” Katami said. “I didn’t want to just come out with my arms swinging.”

In San Francisco, Olson and Boies will be arguing that marriage—and, by extension, the right to marry the person you choose—is a fundamental right. The first part isn’t so difficult. Marriage is one of the rights—along with, for instance, the right to vote, to travel from state to state, and to bear children—that the Court has repeatedly elaborated on and endorsed, though they are not stipulated in the Constitution. In 1974, for example, the Court declared that “the freedom of personal choice in matters of marriage and family is one of the liberties protected by the Due Process clause,” and in 1987 it affirmed the rights of prison inmates to the emotional support, “spiritual significance,” public commitment, and expectation of consummation that come with marriage. Whether these decisions necessarily entail the right to marry a person of the same sex is another matter. Certainly, it could be construed that way, and needn’t mean, as opponents of same-sex marriage sometimes claim, that the Court would then have to allow a person to marry a child, or his sister, or his dog. Constitutional rights are not absolute—free speech does not extend to obscenity, for instance—and since marriage is a contractual relationship both parties must be in a legal and mental position to agree to it. And one could argue that legitimate interests allow the state to ban incestuous and polygamous marriages, for example. (Then again, opponents of same-sex marriage argue that legitimate moral interests justify banning gay unions.)

Olson and Boies must also convince the Court that Proposition 8 violates the Constitution’s Equal Protection clause by assigning gay or lesbian citizens a different, lesser status with regard to marriage rights. When the Supreme Court decides if a law violates the Equal Protection clause, it engages in one of three levels of scrutiny: “rational basis,” intermediate, or strict. If the court uses strict scrutiny, the law in question will be struck down unless it can be shown to have been “narrowly tailored to further a compelling interest” of the state. (It was by subjecting laws against interracial marriage to strict scrutiny that the Court ruled, unanimously, in Loving v. Virginia.) Strict scrutiny is applied only when a law either interferes with a fundamental right or deals with a so-called “suspect” classification: religion, race, ethnicity, or national origin.

If Olson and Boies can convince the Court that the fundamental right of marriage includes the right to marry someone of the same sex, that will get them a long way toward victory. They will also try to convince the Court that sexual orientation is a suspect classification, and that gays and lesbians have been subject to a history of discrimination, are defined by an immutable characteristic that “bears no relation to their ability to perform or contribute to society,” and are “politically powerless,” in this case, to win marriage equality. This argument is trickier. Though gays and lesbians lost at the polls in California, can they really be said to be politically powerless? Just how immutable homosexuality is remains a hotly contested question. And the Court has never before defined sexual orientation as a suspect classification.

Even if the Court declined to apply strict scrutiny, Boies told me, he could still argue that Proposition 8 fails the much more commonly applied “rational basis” scrutiny. Under that test, a law is considered valid as long as it is logically related to a plausible state interest. But, Boies says, “There is overwhelming evidence of damage to gay and lesbian couples who cannot marry—and to their children—and no evidence that permitting gays to marry damages heterosexual couples. The idea that heterosexual couples won’t get married because their gay neighbors can is ridiculous. If you’re going to deprive citizens of basic rights, even under a rational-basis test, you have to show that it’s of benefit to somebody.” Olson and Boies will aim to show that the motivation for Proposition 8 could only have been animus—a rationale that the Court does not look kindly on. In the 1996 case Romer v. Evans, for instance, it ruled that a Colorado amendment that excluded gays and lesbians from anti-discrimination laws was motivated by anti-gay feeling, and was therefore unconstitutional.

So far, Judge Walker, who was appointed to the federal bench in 1989, by George H. W. Bush, has made it clear that he has an eye toward both the high court and history. He has allowed the trial to be videotaped, and plans to let the proceedings be uploaded to YouTube each evening. (Boies and Olson supported the arrangement; their opposing counsel argued vigorously against it.) Walker could have relied primarily on legal filings to make his decision, but instead has opted to admit oral testimony on everything from the history of marriage to the history of anti-gay discrimination, from the fitness of gays and lesbians as parents to the definition of homosexuality. Boies and Olson are happy with this expansive approach. They are eager to cross-examine witnesses. And to help establish animus they plan to introduce as evidence material from the “Yes on 8” campaign that lawyers for the opposing side consider confidential. Among other documents, they have obtained a fund-raising letter from a pro-8 activist named Bill Tam, which warned that if Proposition 8 lost “other states would fall into Satan’s hand,” and “every child, when growing up, would fantasize marrying someone of the same sex.”

The legal team on the other side will be led by Charles Cooper, a Washington lawyer who succeeded Olson as assistant attorney general under Reagan, and by the Alliance Defense Fund, a sort of Christian-conservative counterpart of the A.C.L.U. (The State of California, in the person of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, declined to defend Proposition 8, leaving it to private lawyers to fill in.) Cooper will argue that California indeed has a rational interest in upholding “procreative marriage.” As Cooper told the Judge at a pretrial hearing, in October, the traditional definition of marriage has “prevailed in every civilized society throughout the ages” and “still prevails everywhere in the world, with the exception of five American states, and seven foreign countries.” (Since then, Portugal has become the eighth country to legalize gay marriage.) With Proposition 8, Cooper said, California voters merely defended that tradition. A court, therefore, “should not lightly conclude that everyone who held this belief was irrational, ignorant, or bigoted.” At the heart of the case “are two competing conceptions of the institution of marriage, and of its central purpose,” Cooper declared. “We say that the central and the defining purpose of marriage is to channel naturally procreative sexual activity between men and women into stable, enduring unions for the sake of begetting, nurturing, and raising the next generation. Plaintiffs say that the central and constitutionally mandated purpose of marriage is simply to provide formal government recognition to loving, committed relationships.”

Already, this procreative definition of marriage has led to some puzzled questioning by Judge Walker, and some peculiar exchanges, like this one, at the pretrial hearing:



THE COURT: The last marriage that I performed, Mr. Cooper, involved a groom who was ninety-five, and the bride was eighty-three. I did not demand that they prove that they intended to engage in procreative activity. Now, was I missing something?
MR. COOPER: No, your Honor, you weren’t. Of course, you didn’t.
THE COURT: And I might say it was a very happy relationship.
MR. COOPER: I rejoice to hear that.

Same-sex couples “do not naturally procreate,” Cooper persisted. “That is the natural outcome of sexual activity between opposite-sex couples.”

“Fair enough, but procreation doesn’t require marriage,” replied Judge Walker, who noted that he’d heard on the radio that morning that forty per cent—“can this be right?”—of pregnancies occur in unwed females. Yes, Cooper allowed, that was a sad statistic, but the state still discouraged sexual activity among people who are not married, as it should, because it had a “vital interest” in “promoting responsible procreation.” The “body politic ultimately has to take responsibility or shoulder some of the burden”—often through public assistance—of raising children when their parents didn’t “take that responsibility properly.” (He did not address whether gays and lesbians were any more likely to shirk their responsibility, perhaps because many gay and lesbian parents go to great lengths to have children in the first place.)

The case has involved some unexpected staking out of positions—as though both sides had been reading up on the work of postmodern academics and come to opposite conclusions. Olson’s team will argue that marriage is a malleable institution, shaped by shifting notions of gender, race, and property, while sexual orientation is innate. And the defendants will likely argue that marriage is immutable, and sexual orientation is a performative act, a chosen identity.

Nan Hunter, a law professor at Georgetown University, is skeptical about Olson and Boies’s chances. “As a purely formal matter, one could argue that Olson and Boies are correct,” Hunter said. “But invalidating roughly forty state laws that define marriage as between a man and a woman is an awfully heavy lift for the Supreme Court, and especially for Justices who take a limited role of the scope for the judiciary.” She added, “I fear that their strategy is: Ted Olson will speak, Anthony Kennedy will listen, and the earth will move. I hope I’m wrong about this—they’re excellent lawyers—but I fear, frankly, that there’s more ego than analysis in that.”

Proposition 8 won by only four percentage points, and some believe that if the opposing side had waged a better campaign California might still have gay marriage. Three statewide organizations—Restore Equality 2010, the Courage Campaign, and Equality California—are now leading efforts to bring Proposition 8 back onto the ballot and repeal it. (The latter two groups are aiming for 2012, because their leadership thinks that 2010 is premature, and that more young people will vote in a Presidential-election year.) Whatever happens with the Perry lawsuit, these groups are waging a campaign to persuade reluctant Californians to embrace gay marriage, and they are basing their approach on the power of personal stories.

After Proposition 8 passed, many gays and lesbians complained that the ads that political consultants had come up with for their side did not show any couples. They did not counter the other side’s claim that gay marriage would now be taught in schools with their own images of gay families who would be hurt by the denial of marriage rights. The ads were not visceral or urgent. They didn’t show enough love. Instead, they were abstract and a little arid, if sometimes wry. One, based on the “Mac vs. P.C.” ads, featured a portly, middle-aged guy in a brown suit, who represented “Yes on 8”; a young hipster in skinny jeans was “No on 8.” Another showed a woman talking to her friend about attending her lesbian niece’s wedding, but never showed the wedding pictures (or the niece).

Eugene Hedlund, a media consultant in Southern California who runs a political-action committee called TruthAndHope.org, and who is working on new ads for the gay-marriage side, says of the last media campaign, “It was too intellectual. And though that might have worked for some people, it wasn’t a strong enough argument against ‘They want our children.’ I remember thinking, Where are the ads with the couples? . . . How can you have a campaign based on equality and then hide what it would look like? Can you send a clearer message that there is something to hide? This time around, we’d better be serious about getting emotional.”

Many gay-rights activists seem determined to be more emotional and direct this time. Recent polling suggests that people who know someone who is gay are more likely to support same-sex marriage, and one of the goals of the new campaign is to simulate the experience of knowing someone who is gay. Equality California has produced new ads, one of which ran during the Miss California U.S.A. pageant, in late November, showing gay families talking about the homely details of their lives. In one, a teen-age girl and her two moms sit in a sunlit back yard, laughing about the daughter’s quest for the perfect prom dress. At one point, the girl recalls telling her moms, “If you can’t get legally married, I don’t want to be married.” She adds, “It’s just not fair. It’s love either way.”

TruthAndHope is working on a series of ads that will be similar to “Local Voices for Obama,” which it produced during the Presidential campaign. Those ads, which aired in “red” areas of swing states, were microtargeted, featuring local people—an auto-repair shop owner in Joplin, Missouri; a marine veteran in Columbus, Ohio—explaining why they were supporting Obama. The ads had high production values, but they were unscripted and had a warm, conversational feel. The “Local Voices” campaign won a Pollie—the Oscar of political advertising.

Hedlund now plans to make ads in support of gay marriage that are similarly microtargeted: one might be aimed at Latinos in San Diego, and another at churchgoing African-Americans in South L.A. One ad that he’s put together, titled “Family Values,” features a man named Frank Reifsnyder, who is a retired naval submarine commander and a devout Catholic. The ad begins with him speaking of his and his wife’s long-held dream of grandchildren, and of their happiness when twins came along. “Watching our son become a wonderful father has been an amazing gift,” he says. Reifsnyder then explains that his son is gay and has a husband, and that the two of them are raising their children with “strong morals, compassion, and love.” The ad, which has the intimacy of a home movie, shows the babies being baptized; their two fathers walking down a tree-lined street, with the kids on their shoulders; and the whole family, including the grandparents, saying grace before dinner. The montage ends with Reifsnyder saying, “It may not be the family we had imagined, but it is the family we have—and love.” For Hedlund, that’s a seductive sentiment, because “nobody gets quite the family they imagine.”

This fall, the spot was tested by H.C.D., a New Jersey-based advertising-research firm, and Republicans were surprisingly receptive: fifty-five per cent of them called the ad “effective,” even though only twenty-nine per cent of them supported gay marriage. Glenn Kessler, the head of research for H.C.D., told me, “That suggests a useful dissonance.” The ad didn’t change many minds after one viewing, he noted, but the reaction “suggests that if you tell that kind of story over and over you could get some movement.” Hedlund said, “TV allows us to have a silent conversation with people who may be having a conversation within themselves already. Maybe they have family in the room that they can’t even share their doubts with. And what we’re doing is giving them permission to have those doubts.”

In door-to-door canvassing, same-sex-marriage advocates are having those conversations out loud. Marc Solomon, who directs the marriage initiative for Equality California, told me, “It’s important for more people to see that we’re not some abstraction. We’re not necessarily the gays in West Hollywood or the Castro but the gays around the corner in Bakersfield or Fresno—maybe the couple you’ve seen walking their dog or watering their lawn. People change their minds on this issue with personal conversation, especially with people who are local.”

Since June, Equality California has been sending canvassers to communities that voted for Proposition 8, and reports that it is persuading nearly a quarter of the people its volunteers meet. The weekend before Thanksgiving, I went out with a team of canvassers in Orange County, an area that, with its history as a headquarters for the aerospace industry and as a destination for whites fleeing Los Angeles, tends to be conservative. Fifteen people, most of them in their twenties, met at a park in Huntington Beach. Younger gays and lesbians tend to be the most motivated on the marriage issue. As Patrick Egan, the N.Y.U. political scientist, says, they are “not as concerned about freedom from discrimination as they are about freedom to be like everyone else.” Egan calls their stance “assimilationist.”

A picnic table was piled with clipboards, bottled water, and doughnut boxes. Two young field organizers, Elizabeth Aversa and Daniel Shad, stood in front of an easel draped with big sheets of paper, each marked to resemble smaller sheets that canvassers had on their clipboards. One big sheet said, in Magic Marker, “Rank ’em: Supportive, Undecided, or Opposed.” Another showed the rankings you were supposed to make after conversing with someone: “Volunteer/donor,” “Supportive,” “Undecided,” “Opposed,” or “Unpersuadable.” Canvassers were instructed to share personal stories—to either come out as gay or talk about someone they cared for who was hurt by Proposition 8. “Tell details, names, years together,” another sheet instructed. “Be emotional and memorable.”

Aversa was an energetic twenty-seven-year-old who had short auburn hair, and who wore gray eyeshadow, jeans, and a hoodie. “The emotional part is really important,” she said. “A year from now, we want people to remember they had this conversation with you, and how sad you were not to be able to marry.” Aversa pointed to a young woman in the group. “Jamie here is engaged to her girlfriend.” The group clapped. “She could talk to people about her hopes for her marriage.” Aversa said to look for “people’s faces softening” as you spoke to them: some would really listen to you, and you’d have a sense of “peeling back layers.”

Aversa and Shad reminded the canvassers to remove their sunglasses when approaching people’s doors—“eye contact is key.” And they told them to ask a lot of questions, because sometimes when people were asked to explain why they believed, for example, that gay marriage would hurt children they discovered that they hadn’t rigorously examined their views. As the crowd dispersed, she called out, “When in doubt, come out! Tell those stories!”

I was assigned to a team with Shad, a low-key guy who wore sandals and baggy shorts. We drove to a neighborhood of neatly kept ranch-style houses, where cactuses and birds-of-paradise grew on freshly mowed lawns. Nearly everybody had set out some sort of harvest-themed decoration, and a lot of the houses displayed American flags.

Only one person was supposed to go to the door at a time—two people on your doorstep talking about their sexuality and the meaning of marriage was thought to be a little overbearing—so I waited on the sidewalk while Shad knocked on the first door. A woman who looked to be in her sixties, with a patchwork apron tied around her waist, and a voice that suggested origins in Brooklyn or Queens, appeared on her porch. When Shad told her why he was there, she said, “I’m very opposed—and I’m very passionate about it.”

“I’m gay,” Shad started in, but the woman cut him off.

“That’s fine that you’re doin’ what you’re doin’, but that’s your choice.”

Shad replied, “It was never a choice for me.”

The woman wiped her hands on her apron, and said, “I have grandchildren, and I’ve told them, ‘None of you are going to be gay, and if any of you are I’m going to do everything I can to ungay you.’ ”

Back on the sidewalk, Shad said, “I’m going to mark her ‘Unpersuadable.’ ”

Next, we knocked on the door of a man named Peter, who also looked to be in his sixties. After Shad mentioned the words “gay” and “marriage,” we heard Peter’s wife hiss, “Don’t talk to those people!” Peter rolled his eyes slightly, stepped out onto the porch, and shut the door behind him. A wiry guy in a blue turtleneck and suède moccasins, he was equable but stubborn. Shad made his overture: “I’m gay, and when Prop. 8 passed, last year, it was a huge slap in the face for me. I felt that my friends and neighbors were saying that my love is not the same as theirs.”

Peter was silent, then said, “I don’t believe it is.”

Shad asked him if he had any gay friends. Peter said that he did. When Shad asked him to name one of them, however, Peter declined—it was none of his business.

If the law changed, Peter said, he’d accept it, but the idea that marriage was between one man and one woman was “a foundation of civilization.” We could hear Peter’s wife grumbling behind the kitchen window. “They’re not leaving,” he called to her. Then, to us: “A hundred years from now, people will probably accept it.”

Shad smiled: “It’s going to be sooner than that.”

“Yes,” Peter said. “You bring it up again and again and again, and in a few generations you’ll probably get it.”

Shad tried a different tack: “The marriage you share with your wife, I’m sure a lot of great things have come out of that—”

Peter’s wife slammed the kitchen window, and Peter sighed.

At another house, an Asian woman in a Berkeley sweatshirt opened the door a crack. She turned to say something to a small child inside the house and then spoke to Shad as though he were a small child himself. “Of course I voted for Prop. 8!” she said. “Marriage is between a man and a woman.”

“You’re married, I assume,” Shad said. “Why did you marry?”

The point of asking that question, Shad told me, is to get people to acknowledge that most people don’t marry for the benefits, and that domestic partnerships are therefore insufficient. The word “marriage” matters because it seems to exalt love, whereas “domestic partnership” does not. The institution of marriage, shorn of its utility for the inheritance of property and the assurance of legitimate children, now seems more important for the ratification it bestows on our relationships, for its sacralization of love. Shad’s provocation did not engage this woman, however: she slammed the door. I almost sympathized with her. Who really wants to answer such a personal question, posed by a stranger on your doorstep?

A few conversations went more smoothly. Shad met a seventy-four-year-old man who was “ambivalent” about same-sex marriage—but he had a gay son, and after they spoke amiably for several minutes the man promised to think more about the subject. The personal connection was the key, Shad told me: “I wouldn’t have reached him if he didn’t have a gay son.”

Perry v. Schwarzenegger is not the only federal lawsuit for gay marriage. Another one, Gill v. Office of Personnel Management, is thought by some scholars to stand a better chance of success, though it has been overshadowed by Olson and Boies’s effort. Gill was filed last March, by a public-interest law firm, Gay & Lesbian Advocates & Defenders (GLAD), in Boston. One of the GLAD lawyers on the case is Mary Bonauto—the attorney who successfully argued the case that legalized same-sex marriage in Massachusetts. (That case is heralded by many gay activists but is seen by others as a cautionary tale: the ruling, announced in the run-up to the 2004 Presidential election, served as a rallying cry for evangelical voters, and may have helped Bush win a second term.) Gill is not the damn-the-torpedoes case that Perry is. It challenges a section of the Defense Against Marriage Act which prevents same-sex couples from receiving the many benefits accorded to married couples at the federal level—from joint tax filing to health insurance for federal employees’ families—even though in the state of Massachusetts those couples are lawfully married. Gill insists not on the constitutionality of same-sex marriage but on the unconstitutionality of denying federal benefits to a class of citizens whose marriages are recognized by the state.

“This is not going to be a case that results in more people getting married if we win,” Bonauto told me when I met with her at her offices, across from the Boston Common. A conservative dresser, she has the low, soothingly intelligent voice of a National Public Radio announcer. “But it very clearly presses on the federal government’s double standard,” she added. “Americans don’t like double standards. The federal government recognizes all kinds of marriages once they’re licensed by the state except the ones for gay people. We’re in the legal mainstream here, when you look at cases like Romer and Lawrence, where the federal courts have condemned gay exceptionalism. And that’s what this is.” GLAD could have brought the suit that Olson and Boies did but feared “pushing the ball too far and potentially having a setback.” She added, “We are wishing the Perry folks the absolute best. That said, we can’t help but have concerns about the timing.”

As in the Perry case, the plaintiffs in Gill make for an all-American picture. Bonauto’s co-counsel, Gary Buseck, told me, “We want people the American public can identify with.” From the beginning, Buseck had a vision. “I thought it would be great to have a postal worker,” he said. “Everybody knows a postal worker.” In fact, the lead plaintiff is Nancy Gill, who has been a postal clerk in Massachusetts for twenty-two years. Among the other plaintiffs are Mary Ritchie, a state police sergeant, whose wife, Kathy Bush, left her job at The New England Journal of Medicine to stay at home with their eight- and ten-year-old boys; Bush spends a lot of time volunteering at their school, in a pleasant suburb of Boston. When I visited the family in early December, the living room was Rockwellian: a twinkling Christmas tree, poinsettias on the hearth, and a copy of Martha Stewart Living on the coffee table, along with plates of little cookies.

If Ritchie were to be killed in the line of duty, they explained to me, Bush would not be entitled to the federal benefits for spouses of public-safety officers. Bush said, “It’s just so odd that one marriage can be treated one way, and another another way.”

Two other plaintiffs are Al Koski, a retired Social Security claims representative, and his husband, Jim Fitzgerald, who works at a rehab clinic. They’ve been together for thirty-four years, but the federal government does not allow Fitzgerald to be the beneficiary of Koski’s pension or to be covered by his health-insurance plan. Koski is a hearty guy with a broad Massachusetts accent, who plays bridge with other retired folks on the Cape, where he and Fitzgerald live. When I met them, they told me the story of how they had informed Fitzgerald’s Irish-Catholic mother about their participation in the lawsuit. They hadn’t revealed to her that they were married, and now they had to tell her they’d be in the news as a married couple. She’s virtually deaf, so they typed up a letter and gave it to her to read. Her response will surely be quoted in the courtroom: “I can’t believe you didn’t tell me before you’d gone before the justice of the peace. Congratulations!”

As seemingly modest as the Gill case is, it could help create a favorable climate for more ambitious challenges, including the Perry case. Thomas Keck, a political-science professor at Syracuse University who is an expert on the Supreme Court, told me, “I don’t think any of us can predict how it’s all going to turn out. But Gill is a very well-designed case, a well-targeted challenge that has a good chance of winning, and that broader challenges could be built on. If it wins, in a practical sense we would have federally recognized same-sex marriage. At that point, it would be much harder to defend the federal government’s refusal to recognize same-sex marriage in other parts of the country.” Gill could also go to the Supreme Court, and if it makes it there first, and succeeds, it could help Olson and Boies. As Gary Buseck told me, “I haven’t said this out loud even to myself before, but, to the extent that either of these cases is going to get to the Supreme Court, I think it would be better if our case got there first.” (Predicting the trajectory of court cases is, of course, a futile endeavor.) He added, “You have to approach the Supreme Court in an incremental way.” For Buseck, this, and not the “Letter from a Birmingham Jail,” was the relevant lesson from the civil-rights movement. He recalled that the N.A.A.C.P. Legal Defense and Educational Fund had recognized it would be a stretch to try to desegregate the public schools first—it would be too sweeping and provocative an effort. “So they first won cases about a law school and a university, to make it inevitable that when they brought the case that became Brown the chances of winning would be so much better.”

Maybe the Perry case stands a better chance than skeptics are willing to admit, given that public opinion is more in favor of gay marriage than it was of interracial marriage when the Court ruled in Loving. But Bonauto notes that in 1967 only sixteen states, most of them in the South, had anti-miscegenation laws, whereas thirty-nine states now have laws against gay marriage. A more aggressive strategist like Chad Griffin would counter that state laws are often anachronistic: South Carolina and Alabama didn’t overturn anti-miscegenation laws until 1998 and 2000, respectively. And who would make a serious argument that the Court should have postponed a decision on Loving until the Southern states were in line with it?

To win before the Supreme Court, Olson and Boies need only five votes. Assume that they could count on the four liberal Justices: Stephen Breyer, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sonia Sotomayor, and John Paul Stevens. One might read Justice Kennedy’s sympathetic opinions in Romer v. Evans, the discrimination-laws case, and Lawrence v. Texas, the sodomy-law case, as an indication that he would be more open to recognizing gay marriage than his otherwise conservative leanings would suggest. (In his Lawrence opinion, Kennedy argued, “The petitioners are entitled to respect for their private lives. The State cannot demean their existence or control their destiny by making their private sexual conduct a crime.”) And though Kennedy’s votes with the conservative bloc include one, in 1989, upholding the death penalty for juveniles, he has changed his mind in response to evolving views on a controversial subject: in 2005, Kennedy wrote the opinion that overturned the death penalty for juveniles, arguing that a reversal was called for because “standards of decency” had changed.

It may be that evolving “standards of decency” regarding homosexuality have given the Olson and Boies team a key advantage over its opposing counsel. Public opinion has changed enough so that many anti-gay claims can no longer be made in public. “In the early nineties, lawyers defending traditional marriage were willing to make these very broad anti-gay arguments,” Thomas Keck said, but that has become more difficult, and sometimes seems to leave advocates of traditional marriage rhetorically disarmed—especially, perhaps, in a courtroom in San Francisco.

For example, one of the arguments that the anti-gay-marriage side has increasingly turned to outside the courtroom is that allowing same-sex marriage would hurt heterosexual marriage. At the pretrial hearing, Judge Walker kept asking Charles Cooper, the lawyer defending Proposition 8, how exactly it did so. “I’m asking you to tell me,” he said at last, “how it would harm opposite-sex marriages.”

“All right,” Cooper said.

“All right,” Walker said. “Let’s play on the same playing field for once.”

There was a pause—it seemed like a long one to people in the courtroom, though it was probably only a few seconds. And Cooper said, “Your Honor, my answer is: I don’t know. I don’t know.”



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Sex Trafficking in South Africa: World Cup Slavery Fear

A teenage girl waits near a hotel in Bloemfontein

Melanie Hamman

By E. Benjamin Skinner

For a South African victim of human trafficking, this was the endgame. On a freezing night last July, Sindiswa, 17, lay curled in a fetal position in bed No. 7 of a state-run hospice in central Bloemfontein. Well-used fly strips hung between fluorescent lights, pale blue paint flaked off the walls, and fresh blood stained her sheets, the rusty bedpost and the linoleum floor. Sindiswa had full-blown AIDS and tuberculosis, and she was three months pregnant. Sweat poured from her forehead as she whispered her story through parched lips covered with sores. A few blocks away, the roars of rugby fans erupted from Free State Stadium. In June the roars will be from fans of the World Cup. (See pictures of South Africa.)

Sindiswa's family was one of the poorest families in Indwe, the poorest district in Eastern Cape, one of the poorest provinces in South Africa. Ninety-five percent of the residents of her township fall below the poverty line, more than a quarter have HIV, and most survive by clinging to government grants. Orphaned at 16, she had to leave school to support herself. Last February, a woman from a neighboring town offered to find work for her and her 15-year-old best friend, Elizabeth, who, like Sindiswa, was poor but was also desperate to escape her violent older sister. (I have changed Elizabeth's name to protect her identity.)

After driving them eight hours north to Bloemfontein, the recruiter sold them to a Nigerian drug and human-trafficking syndicate in exchange for $120 and crack cocaine. "[The recruiter] said we could find a job," Sindiswa recalled, "but as soon as we got here, she told us, 'No. You have to go into the streets and sell yourselves.' " The buyer, Jude, forced them into prostitution on the streets of central Bloemfontein for 12 straight hours every night. Each morning, he collected their earnings — Sindiswa averaged $40 per night; Elizabeth, $65. Elizabeth tried to escape three times, once absconding for several weeks. Jude always found her or used Sindiswa as a hostage to lure her back, then enlisted an enforcer named Rasta to beat her. (See pictures of violence in South Africa.)

It is unclear if Sindiswa contracted HIV before or after she was sold, but some of her clients didn't use condoms. She was diagnosed with the virus only a week before I met her. When she was too sick to stand and thus useless as a slave, Jude had thrown her onto the street. Nurses expected her to die within days.

Despite more than a dozen international conventions banning slavery in the past 150 years, there are more slaves today than at any point in human history. Slaves are those forced to perform services for no pay beyond subsistence and for the profit of others who hold them through fraud and violence. While most are held in debt bondage in the poorest regions of South Asia, some are trafficked in the midst of thriving development. Such is the case here in Africa's wealthiest country, the host of this year's World Cup. While South Africa invests billions to prepare its infrastructure for the half-million visitors expected to attend, tens of thousands of children have become ensnared in sexual slavery, and those who profit from their abuse are also preparing for the tournament. During a three-week investigation into human-trafficking syndicates operating near two stadiums, I found a lucrative trade in child sex. The children, sold for as little as $45, can earn more than $600 per night for their captors. "I'm really looking forward to doing more business during the World Cup," said a trafficker. We were speaking at his base overlooking Port Elizabeth's new Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium. Already, he had done brisk business among the stadium's construction workers.

Although its 1996 constitution expressly forbids slavery, South Africa has no stand-alone law against human trafficking in all its forms. Aid groups estimate that some 38,000 children are trapped in the sex trade there. More than 500 mostly small-scale trafficking syndicates — Nigerian, Chinese, Indian and Russian, among others — collude with South African partners, including recruiters and corrupt police officials, to enslave local victims. The country's estimated 1.4 million AIDS orphans are especially vulnerable. South Africa has more HIV cases than any other nation, and a child sold into its sex industry will often face an early grave.

As Sindiswa told me her story, her voice trailed off, and the man who brought me to her — Andre Lombard, 39, a pastor of the Christian Revival Church — laid his hands on her. Lombard had a penetrating gaze and a simmering rage toward men who abuse women. His father, a brutal drunkard, had beaten his mother regularly. Lombard became a born-again Christian at age 17, then served in South Africa's élite special forces for 11 years. (See 25 people who mattered in 2009.)

He began a street ministry in April 2006 and recruited some 60 volunteers to distribute food, blankets and Bibles to the dozens of women and girls selling sex within a 10-block radius of the stadium. They also preached to clients and traffickers. Fights were commonplace. Lombard allowed his volunteers to carry firearms, and several wound up in the intensive-care unit of the local hospital. Lombard acknowledges that most of the prostitutes were not enslaved. Still, in a controversial move, he purchased bus tickets home for more than two dozen women as a way to "escape the streets." With no comprehensive rehabilitation, however, several wound up back in prostitution. Mainstream antitrafficking organizations often decry such tactics as reckless. In response, Lombard says, "I'm a goer. If you drive by and just talk about it and don't do anything, you're actually justifying it."

After we left the hospice, Lombard drove eight blocks east of the stadium to the notorious Maitland Hotel. Police had identified the Maitland as a base of drug- and human-trafficking operations. HIV-positive survivors described how traffickers used gang rape, drug provision, sleep deprivation and torture to "break" new children on the fifth floor; the fourth floor featured an illegal abortion clinic. On other floors, as many as four girls slept on a single mattress. Police raided the Maitland in 2008 and shut the place down last January. Traffickers had been tipped off about the final raid, yet officials still rescued dozens of underage girls and seized weapons and thousands of dollars' worth of drugs. Though still officially closed, the Maitland was active. Next door, a club blasted music by Tupac, and several girls worked the front of the hotel, where a makeshift concierge took rents. (See TIME's tribute to people who passed away in 2009.)

A shivering girl in a red sweatshirt and flip-flops stood alone at the corner of the hotel. She said she was 15 and desperately needed help. I asked Lombard's volunteer to translate from Xhosa. Shockingly, this was Elizabeth — Sindiswa's best friend — still controlled by Jude. Having researched modern-day slavery for eight years, I knew how difficult it was for survivors to heal after emancipation. In this case, mere emancipation would be a dangerous procedure.

Earlier that day, I spoke with Luis CdeBaca, who was visiting South Africa on his first foreign visit as President Obama's ambassador-at-large to monitor and combat human trafficking. "Dedicated cops, prosecutors and victim advocates are fighting the traffickers in several host cities, but they're largely doing it on their own," he said. Obama has pledged to make the fight to abolish modern-day slavery a top foreign policy priority, but the U.S. currently spends more in a single day fighting drug trafficking than it does in an entire year fighting human trafficking. So CdeBaca, whose office evaluates every country based on its efforts to fight human bondage, must rely largely on diplomatic pressure. "An exploitation-free World Cup will require resources and political will from the South African government and the international community alike," said CdeBaca.

Such political will is not evident. At best, the South African government's response to child sex trafficking has been superficial or piecemeal; at worst, some officials have actually colluded with the traffickers. American and South African law-enforcement sources described how police at all levels have solicited underage prostitutes in Bloemfontein, Durban and other World Cup cities. South African officials claim that Parliament will pass a comprehensive law against human trafficking in early 2010. For now, enterprising police officers who take on human traffickers do so with few legal tools at their disposal. Convictions for trafficking-related offenses typically bring little or no jail time. And those vigilante humanitarians like Lombard face an emboldened and violent adversary, as I saw that evening. (See TIME's South Africa covers.)

Elizabeth insisted that we recover her scant possessions: a handful of clothes and a Bible. Jude had convinced her that he would perform witchcraft on those items, to track and punish her if she again attempted escape. We drove to Jude's fortified crack den five minutes away. Lombard and I followed Elizabeth into the darkness behind the compound. We were joined by Shadrack, a kung-fu-trained church volunteer who worked as a financial adviser by day. Elizabeth tapped a secret knock, and after Jude ushered her in, Shadrack wedged his foot in the door. We pushed into the dingy flat, which bore the medicinal odor of crack. As the churchmen escorted Elizabeth to retrieve her clothes, I smiled and feigned ignorance of their intent. While Lombard and Elizabeth retrieved her possessions, I spoke to Jude alone. Short and muscular, with dark, patchy skin, Jude wore slim, brown corduroys and white Crocs with green dollar signs. Jude explained that he lured girls from Johannesburg, where many survive by "picking through garbage." Our conversation turned to soccer. I asked him if he was looking forward to the World Cup. "Yeah, this is good! Us people are going to make a lot of money then if you know what you're doing." (See pictures of Johannesburg preparing for the World Cup.)

As I prepared to leave, a woman began screaming from a sealed-off room in the compound. Lombard burst back into the room and forced his way to the darkened recesses of the compound. He kicked in a door to find Rasta, the syndicate's enforcer, half naked with the screaming woman, who ran behind Lombard. "Did you beat her? Because if you beat her, you must beat me," Lombard said, inches from the flaring eyes of the muscular Rasta. Rasta launched a haymaker at Lombard, who ducked. Rasta threatened to call in his "brothers." "I'll break their legs too," Lombard retorted as we retreated to our car, where the photographer traveling with us, Melanie Hamman, was bent in prayer with Elizabeth. With Jude chasing us on foot, we drove off.

Newly elected South African President Jacob Zuma addressed fears about sex trafficking in a speech last August. "We have noted the concern amongst women's groups that the 2010 FIFA World Cup may have the unintended consequence of creating opportunities for human trafficking," the President said. "We are putting systems in place to prevent this, as part of general security measures that we should take when hosting an event of this magnitude."

Zuma's pledge was too little, too late for Sindiswa, who died on July 22. Immediately after we took Elizabeth off the streets, Hamman and I drove her eight hours to her home in Eastern Cape. Wary of the failure rate of Lombard's unmonitored returns, we worked with a dedicated social worker in Indwe to ensure that the conditions under which she was originally trafficked did not reappear. A suburban-Chicago couple has given her a full scholarship, enabling the otherwise impossible goal of finishing school. She is HIV-negative. It is a stretch to call her lucky. But she has another chance at life.

Skinner is the author of A Crime So Monstrous: Face-to-Face with Modern-Day Slavery (Free Press, 2008), which was awarded the 2009 Dayton Literary Peace Prize for nonfiction. This investigation was supported by a grant from Humanity United.

See pictures of child soldiers in Africa.

See the best pictures of 2009.

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Yemen: The Most Fragile Ally

Yemen's capital is home to architectural marvels. But outside, there's rot.

Yemen's capital is home to architectural marvels. But outside, there's rot. Ed Ou / Reportage / Getty

Yemen's President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, faces sectarian threats and criticism from skeptics who think he's soft on al-Qaeda.

Yemen's President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, faces sectarian threats and criticism from skeptics who think he's soft on al-Qaeda. AFP / Getty

Salesman shoot the breeze in Sana'a. The crop takes up too much precious water.

Salesman shoot the breeze in Sana'a. The crop takes up too much precious water. Rachael Strecher / Polaris


Ali Abdullah Saleh has a phrase for it. Ruling Yemen, he says, is like "dancing on the heads of snakes." Saleh, Yemen's President, has had plenty of practice. As an army officer back in 1978, he took power in North Yemen after the assassination of the previous President. (North Yemen had become an independent state after the breakup of the Ottoman Empire in 1918.) In 1990 he led the North to victory in a war against South Yemen, the territory that was once the British colony of Aden, and has ruled the unified nation ever since. He's done so using the classic techniques of a Middle Eastern strongman — clamping down on the press, concentrating military and economic power in the hands of friends and family and winning elections by suspiciously high margins. Though Saleh's main source of legitimacy is the semblance of unity he has brought to what is one of the world's most fragmented countries, his chief skill has been survival. (See pictures of a jihadist's journey.)

Now Saleh, 67, finds his snake-dancing skills being tested as never before. The suspicion that Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian who allegedly tried to blow up a flight to Detroit on Christmas Day, trained for his mission with al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen has renewed attention on the nation as a breeding ground for extremists. Saleh — a professed U.S. Ally — has promised action and indeed has sent hundreds of extra soldiers to the front lines of al-Qaeda-dominated territory east of Sana'a. But U.S. officials view him as a fickle leader facing a difficult array of threats — from a sectarian rebellion in the north and a secessionist movement in the south, to say nothing of dwindling water supplies and oil reserves. In the past, the Yemeni government has been lax about the threat from al-Qaeda, and critics have charged that Saleh has used jihadists against his own adversaries. "The question is, What's his appetite for taking the fight to the bad guys?" says a U.S. official. It's a good question. But with no other options but to work with Saleh, the issue for the U.S. may be how to manage expectations of what is possible in Yemen. And manage them down.

A Troubled History
Stretched around the southern heel of the Arabian Peninsula and home to 23.8 million people — compared with 28.7 million in neighboring Saudi Arabia — Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the Middle East. It has a long history of being both a source of militants and a staging ground for jihadist attacks. In 2000, al-Qaeda fighters rammed an explosives-packed speedboat into the U.S.S. Cole in the port of Aden, killing 17 sailors. Militants have also attacked the U.S. embassy in Sana'a several times.

One indication of Yemen's salience in the fight against terrorism: of the 200 or so detainees still held at Guantánamo Bay in Cuba, some 90 — more than from any other country — are Yemeni. And one indication of the confidence (or lack of it) that the U.S. has in Saleh's government: last year, officials determined that 40 to 50 of those detainees were safe to send back to Yemen for eventual release, but last month it was decided to keep them at Gitmo. Why? Because, said a State Department official, "We all took a look at Yemen and said, Oh, man, this stinks. Normally, when you repatriate [detainees] to a government that is competent, they keep an eye on them. In Yemen, the government has less capacity [to do so]. We'd be negligent if we were ignoring that." And the Administration hasn't. Barack Obama's top counterterrorism adviser, John Brennan, took direct control of the Yemeni-detainee issue, traveling to Yemen twice last year to push the U.S. counterterrorism agenda.

Government opponents claim that Saleh's use of state resources to bolster his circle of supporters has left the rest of the country to rot. But not all of Yemen's problems are Saleh's doing. The country faces a severe water shortage, in large part because of the national addiction to khat, a shrub whose young leaves contain a compound with effects similar to those of amphetamines. (The crop accounts for roughly a third of the country's water usage.) Moreover, Yemen's production of oil — which constitutes 90% of its exports — is limited and could end by 2017, according to the World Bank.

Without money, Saleh's ability to play patronage politics and buy off the opposition has faded. Though posters bearing his portrait are plastered across Sana'a, his authority doesn't extend very far beyond the capital. About two-thirds of the country is in the hands of either separatist groups or local tribes, some of which have a habit of kidnapping foreign tourists to use as bargaining chips with the central government. Economic and developmental issues — Yemen's most volatile regions are among those hardest hit by drought and government neglect — are at the heart of most of those conflicts, especially the war between the government and Shi'ite rebels, known as Houthis, that is being waged in the northern province of Sa'ada.

More ominously, Yemen's social and economic problems have created a vacuum for al-Qaeda to fill. Squeezed out of Iraq and Afghanistan, al-Qaeda operatives have regrouped in Yemen's lawless mountain regions east of Sana'a and have merged with al-Qaeda's Saudi branch to form al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Led by Naser Abdel-Karim Wahishi and Saeed Ali Shehri, a Guantánamo detainee who was released in 2007, AQAP may constitute 200 core members supported by thousands of locals. Terrorism experts worry that with a firm footing in Yemen, al-Qaeda can coordinate with Red Sea pirates operating from Somalia and eventually reach the Suez Canal — or launch attacks in Saudi Arabia and the other Persian Gulf countries. "Anyone who has been to Yemen knows that automatic arms, explosives, even rockets are sold out in the open — on street corners — often by people who make no secret of their Islamist affinities," says a French counterterrorism official. "It's been this enormous crossroads for people traveling from one jihad, like Iraq or Afghanistan, to another one, like Somalia."

The U.S. has few military options against a guerrilla organization that has blended in with the local population and landscape. Air strikes and missile launches from afar run the risk of highlighting America's impotence rather than its might. On Dec. 17 and 24, joint Yemeni-U.S. strikes against purported AQAP training camps took place and killed more than 60 militants, U.S. intelligence officials claimed. It was initially hoped that the attacks had disposed of Wahishi, Shehri and radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, the cyber–pen pal of the accused Fort Hood shooter, Army Major Nidal Malik Hasan, but no evidence has yet demonstrated that to be the case. And more missile strikes could prove politically disastrous in a nation whose citizenry seethes with anti-U.S. sentiment.

(See pictures of Pakistan beneath the surface.)

Washington wants to continue to cooperate with Saleh and is encouraging his government to take the lead in rooting out al-Qaeda. The U.S. boosted counterterrorism funding for Yemen from less than $5 million in 2006 to $67 million in 2009 and has been dispatching CIA and military personnel to train Yemeni forces. U.S. Centcom commander General David Petraeus said on Jan. 1 that military assistance would double in the coming year. But outside observers are skeptical of how much effect more guns and money will have, especially if the largesse is appropriated by a corrupt bureaucracy. In any event, Saleh's officials have been wary of seeming to do America's bidding. In 2002 the U.S. scored a victory against al-Qaeda in Yemen and promptly spoiled its success. Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy Secretary of Defense at the time, took public credit for a Predator-drone strike that killed a top al-Qaeda figure, exposing Yemeni leaders to domestic criticism for siding with the U.S.

When Awful Is Good
For foreign aid to have an effect in Yemen, it would have to be tied to some kind of reform process that both addresses Yemen's endemic corruption and devolves some power from Saleh. At the top of the wish list would be a political reconciliation between the central government and the Houthis. Not all is grim. With the right incentives, tribes in al-Qaeda areas could be induced to turn against the extremists, along the lines of the Sunni awakening in Iraq, according to Najeeb Ghallab, a Sana'a University political analyst. "The situation is moving from bad to worse," he says, "but there's a golden chance to save Yemen if it sparks reform."

Such reform won't happen overnight, however, and possibly not at all while Saleh is President. His son Brigadier Ahmad Ali Abdullah Saleh is widely viewed as being groomed for succession, and his circle of younger, Western-educated officials is sometimes touted by supporters as being more reform-minded than the elder generation. But skeptics think the son may end up being merely a less crafty version of the father. "Ahmad is popular, but without any strategic vision, he will either be weaker than his father or just continue the way his father did things," says Adel Shogaa, a political-science professor at Sana'a University.

That's why managing expectations down seems a sensible step. Perhaps, if the U.S and its allies play their cards right, with a regional plan to expand economic development in Yemen and coordinate security, the sort of disaster seen in Afghanistan and Somalia can be avoided. "We've seen this movie before, and we know how it ends," says Christopher Boucek, an associate in the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Yemen's problems are really unsolvable. But you can reduce the impact that they will have, make them less bad and increase the chances for it to survive what we know is coming — state failure."

Which amounts to little more than hoping that the collapse of a U.S. ally will have consequences that are merely awful rather than catastrophic.

With reporting by Massimo Calabresi and Mark Thompson / Washington; Bruce Crumley / Paris; Rami Aysha / Beirut; and Abigail Hauslohner / Sana'a

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Afghans more optimistic for future, survey shows

Approval rating graphic

By Adam Mynott
BBC World Affairs Correspondent

Most Afghans are increasingly optimistic about the state of their country, a poll commissioned by the BBC, ABC News and Germany's ARD shows.

Of more than 1,500 Afghans questioned, 70% said they believed Afghanistan was going in the right direction - a big jump from 40% a year ago.

Of those questioned, 68% now back the presence of US troops in Afghanistan, compared with 63% a year ago.

For Nato troops, including UK forces, support has risen from 59% to 62%.

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The survey was conducted in all of the country's 34 provinces in December 2009.

In 2009 only 51% of those surveyed had expected improvement and 13% thought conditions would deteriorate.

But in the latest survey 71% said they were optimistic about the situation in 12 months' time, compared with 5% who said it would be worse.

The other significant theme which emerges from the figures is growing antipathy towards the Taliban.

Ninety per cent said they wanted their country run by the current government, compared with 6% who said they favoured a Taliban administration.

Sixty-nine per cent believed the Taliban posed the biggest danger to the country, and 66% blamed the Taliban, al-Qaeda and foreign militants for violence in Afghanistan.

Graphic: When should foreign troops leave?

Most Afghans appeared positive about the presence of troops from Nato and other countries stationed in Afghanistan.

The survey also asked if people thought it was good or bad that US forces entered Afghanistan in 2001 to drive out the Taliban. Of those questioned, 83% said it was either very good or mostly good. This compares with 69% for 2009.

However, more of those questioned believe troops with the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) are now worse at avoiding civilian casualties (43% worse and 24% better).

There was some ambivalence about how long Isaf forces should remain in the country - 22% said they should leave within the next 18 months, and 21% said they should stay longer than 18 months from now.

Afghans appear more positive about their general living conditions and the availability of electricity, medical care and jobs compared with a year ago.

Insecurity and crime were slightly worse, they said, and freedom of movement slightly better.

Despite a presidential election last year mired in controversy over ballot rigging, 74% said they were either very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the outcome.

Also, 72% of Afghans rated President Hamid Karzai as excellent or good - compared with 52% 12 months ago - and 60% rated the performance of the present government as good or excellent, as opposed to 10% who thought it was poor.

One of the major issues facing Afghanistan is corruption among government officials or the police.

Of those surveyed, 95% identified it as a problem; 76% said it was a big problem and 19% said they considered it a moderate problem.

Approval rating graphic

The survey was conducted by the Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research (Acsor) based in Kabul. Interviews were conducted in person, in Dari or Pashto, among a random national sample of 1,534 Afghan adults from 11-23 December 2009.

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Hariri's struggles in Lebanon show limits of U.S. influence

Saad HaririImage via Wikipedia

By Howard Schneider
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, January 11, 2010; A08

BEIRUT -- The victory by a pro-U.S. faction in last June's parliamentary election has given way to a situation in which Hezbollah will keep its large arms stockpile and a veto over major government decisions, while efforts are underway to repair relations with neighboring Syria.

The compromises made by new Prime Minister Saad Hariri as he assembled a governing coalition are seen by supporters as unavoidable in a country in which complex internal politics and the influence of outside powers can make governing difficult. But they also show the practical limits of the Obama administration's overture to the Islamic world.

The June election victory by Hariri's coalition came just after Obama delivered a major speech from Cairo and just before violent street demonstrations rattled the government in Iran, considered an important influence in Lebanon because of its support for Hezbollah. Some Obama advisers went so far as to attribute Hariri's success to the mood of reform the president had brought to the region.

But victory at the polls did not translate so smoothly on the ground. Hariri spent six months trying to form a government, and could do so only after accepting key Hezbollah demands and giving up on a main aim of his coalition: to curb the Islamist group's influence.

He also agreed to visit Damascus and meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad, a difficult symbolic step because of Syria's suspected involvement in the 2005 assassination of Hariri's father, former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. A United Nations tribunal is still investigating the killing. It is one of a number of political assassinations that led to a U.N. resolution and other outside pressure, prompting Syria to end its longstanding military presence in Lebanon.

"We won the election, but it looks like we lost," said Marwan Hamadeh, a member of parliament and supporter of the "Cedar Revolution," which has aimed to curb the influence of both Syria and Iran in the country at a time when other power brokers, especially the United States, want to talk with both nations. "There has been a lot of realism and a lot of frustration. The Cedar Revolution forces were convinced: Why look for a fight when everyone is trying to negotiate with Iran and Syria?"

The shape of Hariri's coalition is not seen by U.S. officials as a major setback; they view it instead as far preferable to a coalition dominated by Hezbollah and its allies. Hezbollah maintains a militia that it justifies as necessary for potential conflict with Israel, despite a U.N. resolution ordering the group to disarm. The United States regards Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. The group's opponents in Lebanon argue that its arms stockpile puts the country at risk of another war, such as the one in 2006 in which Israel maintained that all of Lebanon would be held accountable for Hezbollah's actions.

U.S. military and economic aid to Lebanon is continuing, largely to strengthen the Lebanese armed forces and other state institutions and undermine Hezbollah's argument that the country can't defend itself. The United States has contributed about $400 million to Lebanon's military since 2006, a level expected to continue in the form of supplies that range from armored personnel carriers to new boots.

"It's glass half empty, glass half full," Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said as he toured the country last week. "Does Hariri's visit to Damascus mean you have to beg for Damascus's dispensation, or does it mean that Bashar wants a new relationship? It remains to be seen."

It is a question central to the discussion here and connected to U.S. efforts to turn Syria away from Iran, derail Iran's nuclear program, and limit Iran's influence through proxies like Hezbollah here and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Hariri's visit to Damascus, according to his supporters and others, was brokered by Saudi Arabia, which has been taking its own steps to repair relations with Assad. What's less clear -- and under debate here -- is whether the Saudis were hoping to weaken Syria's long-standing alliance with Iran by making amends or were hedging against the possibility that Obama will fail in his efforts to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons technology.

The White House has its own policy of engagement with Syria, though progress has been fitful. The expected return of a U.S. ambassador to Damascus has not occurred, and there is still U.S. dissatisfaction with Syrian efforts to control its border and halt the flow of insurgents into Iraq.

Hariri's meeting with Assad did produce some concessions, including an expectation that the countries will work more closely on defining borders and other issues that are considered a source of instability inside Lebanon and between Lebanon and Israel. Diplomats and analysts also regarded Assad's willingness over the past year to exchange ambassadors with Lebanon as an important acknowledgment of Lebanon's sovereignty.

But there is still worry here that the momentum of the Cedar Revolution has been lost, and skepticism that U.S. efforts to engage Syria and Iran will change the behavior of either. The shape of the new government has only added to those concerns.

"Everybody is waiting to see if the Syrians will deliver, and if the Iranians win or lose their battle" both internally and with the United States, said Ghattas Khoury, a former member of parliament who is close to Hariri. "I think everyone reached the conclusion that these were not things you can do much about."

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'Hillary effect' cited for increase in female ambassadors to U.S.

Official portrait of Secretary of State Hillar...Image via Wikipedia

By Mary Jordan
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, January 11, 2010; A01

In the gated Oman Embassy off Massachusetts Avenue, Washington's first female ambassador from an Arab country, Hunaina Sultan Al-Mughairy, sat at her desk looking over a speech aimed at erasing misconceptions about her Muslim nation.

A few blocks away inside a stately Dupont Circle mansion, India's first female ambassador in more than 50 years, Meera Shankar, huddled with top aides after her prime minister's state visit with President Obama.

Nearby, in a century-old residence with its own ballroom, Latin America's only female ambassador in Washington, Colombia's Carolina Barco, dashed back from talking up free trade on Capitol Hill to showcase her country's culture and food.

There are 25 female ambassadors posted in Washington -- the highest number ever, according to the State Department.

"This is breaking precedent," said Selma "Lucky" Roosevelt, a former U.S. chief of protocol.

Women remain a distinct minority -- there are 182 accredited ambassadors in Washington -- but their rise from a cadre of five in the late 1990s to five times that is opening up what had been an elite's men club for more than a century.

A key reason is the increase in the number of top U.S. diplomats who are women, what some call the "Hillary effect."

"Hillary Clinton is so visible" as secretary of state, said Amelia Matos Sumbana, who just arrived as ambassador from Mozambique. "She makes it easier for presidents to pick a woman for Washington."

Three of the last four secretaries of state -- the office that receives foreign ambassadors -- have been women.

Madeleine Albright became the first female U.S. secretary of state in 1997. Condoleezza Rice served from 2005 to 2009.

Clinton, now in her second year, is especially well-known abroad because of her stint as first lady and her presidential run; she is seen by many as a globetrotting champion of women's rights.

"The pictures of U.S. diplomacy have been strongly dominated by photos of women recently," Shankar said. "That helps to broaden the acceptance of women in the field of diplomacy."

Claudia Fritsche, the ambassador from Liechtenstein, a principality that only gave women the right to vote in 1984, said the Albright-Rice-Clinton sequence has "a worldwide effect. . . . It's inspiring, motivating and certainly encouraging."

Albright said that when she spoke to foreign ministers around the world they told her governments had started thinking, "We need a Madeleine."

Some American diplomats said the appointment of a woman can be a visible way for a country to signal that is modernizing and in step with the United States.

A woman's touch

For many countries, a Potomac posting is prized, landed only by seasoned diplomats and influential political players. More women now have those credentials, a reflection of women's advancement in many parts of the world.

Eleven of the 25 female envoys in Washington are from Africa. Four are from Caribbean nations. The others are from Bahrain, the Netherlands, Croatia, Kyrgyzstan, Singapore, Oman, Colombia, India, Liechtenstein and Nauru, an eight-square-mile Pacific island with only 14,000 people.

Heng Chee Chan, the Singaporean ambassador and the longest-serving female envoy in Washington, said it has been a "quantum leap" for women in diplomacy since she arrived here in 1996.

In the beginning, she said people just assumed she was a man. When a table was booked under "Ambassador Chan" and she arrived asking for it, she was told, 'Oh, he is not here yet.' "

Many said they are still often bypassed in receiving lines and the male standing beside them is greeted as "Mr. Ambassador."

"Even when I say I am ambassador, people assume I am the spouse," said Shankar, who has represented India in Washington for nearly a year.

More than half of new recruits for the U.S. Foreign Service and 30 percent of the chiefs of mission are now women, according to the State Department. That is a seismic shift from the days, as late as the 1970s, when women in the Foreign Service had to quit when they married, a rule that did not apply to men.

"It was outrageous," said Susan Johnson, president of the American Foreign Service Association. "The idea was that a married woman could not be available for worldwide service. She would be having children and making a home."

That thinking is still alive in many parts of the world. But as the U.S. Foreign Service moves away from being "pale, male and Yale," the diplomatic ranks elsewhere are diversifying, too.

Johnson said the rise in female diplomats coincides with what she sees as a shift in investment away from diplomacy and toward defense. "Is the relative feminization of diplomacy indicative of its decline as a center of power and influence?" she wonders.

But she and others welcome the change and say it will have an impact.

Cathy Tinsley, executive director of Georgetown University's Women's Leadership Initiative, said gender diversity at the top of any organization leads to better decisions. When all the decision-makers have a similar background and mind-set, they can "amplify the error."

Barco, a mother of three who has served as Colombia's foreign minister, said capability and preparation -- not gender -- are what count. She held 630 meetings on Capitol Hill last year to lobby for a free trade agreement with the United States.

But several female ambassadors said they often bring a different perspective to discussions than their male counterparts and tend to focus more on certain issues such as poverty and lack of schooling for girls.

Shankar credited female leaders with turning the world's spotlight on the marginalization of Afghan women, and several U.S. diplomats said that since women have run the State Department, U.S. embassies have emphasized collecting information on rights abuses against women worldwide.

Several female ambassadors from developing countries said they are attentive to issues affecting families, such as health care and the lack of safe drinking water.

Albright said she guards against saying that women focus on "soft issues." "They are often the hardest issues: poverty, discrimination, education and health," she said.

Female envoys often pool their power to land meetings with busy U.S. senators or media personalities. A group recently met with Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

"There is a female kinship," Liechtenstein's Fritsche said, in her chic Georgetown embassy with its crushed-glass floor and rooftop views of the Potomac.

No matter that Washington has often been described as a "boys' club," said Barco, being a woman does have its advantages. For one thing, you get noticed.

And Chan said because of male-female seating patterns, she often gets prime spots, including next to George W. Bush and Henry Kissinger.

Leaving the hubby behind

While male ambassadors are usually accompanied by wives, female ambassadors are often here alone. Of eight interviewed, four are divorced and four said their husbands did not accompany them to Washington because of their own jobs.

Angele Niyuhire, 47, who arrived this fall as the new ambassador from Burundi, said her husband felt he could not leave his construction business. "It's considered normal if a woman goes with her husband but it's not seen as the same if a husband goes," she said.

So she moved to Bethesda with her two teenage daughters to run her small embassy out of a second-floor office on Wisconsin Avenue.

In Burundi, "a woman's traditional role is [to] take care of the house," Niyuhire said, but "if we women want to assume responsibility, we can't say, 'No, I am not going to take that job because my husband can't come.' "

Sumbana, a founding member of the Mozambique Red Cross and former member of the national parliament who arrived as ambassador a couple of months ago, said sometimes the men making appointments are overly concerned about what the husbands will do. "There is a tendency for men to think for women. They think, 'How can we post this woman? What would we do with her husband? How will the husband feel with his wife in a higher position?' "

Her husband stayed at his job in Mozambique.

Ambassadors' wives have historically played a huge role in entertaining -- a key part of an envoy's job -- so that duty falls to the female ambassadors. "We need a wife, too!" several remarked.

"It's a disadvantage that I am here by myself," said Houda Ezra Ebrahim Nonoo, the ambassador from Bahrain since 2008. Her husband and 17-year-old son live in Bahrain and her older son studies in London. "But that means I can work late and not feel guilty."

As Bahrain's first female ambassador to Washington and the first Jewish ambassador from an Arab country, Nonoo has become a well-known face back home. The former managing director of a computer company said being a woman helps erase misconceptions about women in her Persian Gulf country.

Nonoo and Al-Mughairy, Oman's ambassador, have both been questioned at forums about whether women in their countries are allowed to drive, a restriction in some parts of the Arab world but not in their nations.

"Oman has three cabinet members who are women," said Al-Mughairy, an economist. She recently wore a pink thob, a traditional dress, as she greeted hundreds of U.S. business and government officials who came to the Willard Hotel to celebrate her country's national day.

Being a female ambassador, Al-Mughairy said, "opens doors for me. People are curious to see me."

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Jan 10, 2010

Al-Qaeda has a new strategy. Obama needs one, too.

Al Qaeda Internal MemoImage by robertodevido via Flickr

By Bruce Hoffman
Sunday, January 10, 2010; B01

In the wake of the failed Christmas Day airplane bombing and the killing a few days later of seven CIA operatives in Afghanistan, Washington is, as it was after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, obsessed with "dots" -- and our inability to connect them. "The U.S. government had sufficient information to have uncovered this plot and potentially disrupt the Christmas Day attack, but our intelligence community failed to connect those dots," the president said Tuesday.

But for all the talk, two key dots have yet to be connected: Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the alleged Northwest Airlines Flight 253 attacker, and Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, the trusted CIA informant turned assassin. Although a 23-year-old Nigerian engineering student and a 36-year-old Jordanian physician would seem to have little in common, they both exemplify a new grand strategy that al-Qaeda has been successfully pursuing for at least a year.

Throughout 2008 and 2009, U.S. officials repeatedly trumpeted al-Qaeda's demise. In a May 2008 interview with The Washington Post, then-CIA Director Michael Hayden heralded the group's "near strategic defeat." And the intensified aerial drone attacks that President Obama authorized against al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan last year were widely celebrated for having killed over half of its remaining senior leadership.

Yet, oddly enough for a terrorist movement supposedly on its last legs, al-Qaeda late last month launched two separate attacks less than a week apart -- one failed and one successful -- triggering the most extensive review of U.S. national security policies since 2001. Al-Qaeda's newfound vitality is the product of a fresh strategy that plays to its networking strength and compensates for its numerical weakness. In contrast to its plan on Sept. 11, which was to deliver a knock-out blow to the United States, al-Qaeda's leadership has now adopted a "death by a thousand cuts" approach. There are five core elements to this strategy.

First, al-Qaeda is increasingly focused on overwhelming, distracting and exhausting us. To this end, it seeks to flood our already information-overloaded national intelligence systems with myriad threats and background noise. Al-Qaeda hopes we will be so distracted and consumed by all this data that we will overlook key clues, such as those before Christmas that linked Abdulmutallab to an al-Qaeda airline-bombing plot.

Second, in the wake of the global financial crisis, al-Qaeda has stepped up a strategy of economic warfare. "We will bury you," Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev promised Americans 50 years ago. Today, al-Qaeda threatens: "We will bankrupt you." Over the past year, the group has issued statements, videos, audio messages and letters online trumpeting its actions against Western financial systems, even taking credit for the economic crisis. However divorced from reality these claims may be, propaganda doesn't have to be true to be believed, and the assertions resonate with al-Qaeda's target audiences.

Heightened security measures after the Christmas Day plot, coupled with the likely development of ever more sophisticated passenger-screening and intelligence technologies, stand to cost a lot of money, while the war in Afghanistan constitutes a massive drain on American resources. Given the economic instability here and abroad, al-Qaeda seems to think that a strategy of financial attrition will pay outsize dividends.

Third, al-Qaeda is still trying to create divisions within the global alliance arrayed against it by targeting key coalition partners. Terrorist attacks on mass-transit systems in Madrid in 2004 and London in 2005 were intended to punish Spain and Britain for participating in the war in Iraq and in the U.S.-led war on terrorism, and al-Qaeda continues this approach today. During the past two years, serious terrorist plots orchestrated by al-Qaeda's allies in Pakistan, meant to punish Spain and the Netherlands for participating in the war on terrorism, were thwarted in Barcelona and Amsterdam.

Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, suicide bombers and roadside explosives target contingents from countries such as Britain, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands, where popular support for deployments has waned, in hopes of hastening their withdrawal from the NATO-led coalition.

Fourth, al-Qaeda is aggressively seeking out, destabilizing and exploiting failed states and other areas of lawlessness. While the United States remains preoccupied with trying to secure yesterday's failed state -- Afghanistan -- al-Qaeda is busy staking out new terrain. The terrorist network sees failing states as providing opportunities to extend its reach, and it conducts local campaigns of subversion to hasten their decline. Over the past year, it has increased its activities in places such as Pakistan, Algeria, the Sahel, Somalia and, in particular, Yemen.

Once al-Qaeda has located or helped create a region of lawlessness, it guides allies and related terrorist groups in that area, boosting their local, regional and -- as the Northwest Airlines plot demonstrated -- international attack capabilities. Although the exact number of al-Qaeda personnel in each of these areas varies, and in some cases may include no more than a few hard-core terrorists, they perform a critical force-multiplying function. Their help to indigenous terrorist groups includes support for attacks -- by providing weapons, training and intelligence -- and, equally critical, assistance in disseminating propaganda, such as by building Web sites and launching online magazines modeled on al-Qaeda's.

Fifth and finally, al-Qaeda is covetously seeking recruits from non-Muslim countries who can be easily deployed for attacks in the West. The group's leaders see people like these -- especially converts to Islam whose appearances and names would not arouse the same scrutiny that persons from Islamic countries might -- as the ultimate fifth column. Citizens of countries that participate in the U.S. visa-waiver program are especially prized because they can move freely between Western countries and blend easily into these societies.

Al-Qaeda has become increasingly adept at using the Internet to locate these would-be terrorists and to feed them propaganda. During the past 18 months, American and British intelligence officials have said, well over 100 individuals from such countries have graduated from terrorist training camps in Pakistan and have been sent West to undertake terrorist operations.

In adopting and refining these tactics, al-Qaeda is shrewdly opportunistic. It constantly monitors our defenses in an effort to identify new gaps and opportunities that can be exploited. Its operatives track our congressional hearings, think-tank analyses and media reports, all of which provide strategic intelligence. By coupling this information with surveillance efforts, the movement has overcome many of the security measures we have put in its path.

A survey of terrorist incidents in the past seven months alone underscores the diversity of the threats arrayed against us and the variety of tactics al-Qaeda is using. These incidents involved such hard-core operatives as Balawi, the double agent who played American and Jordanian intelligence to kill more CIA agents than anyone else has in more than a quarter-century. And sleeper agents such as David Headley, the U.S. citizen whose reconnaissance efforts for Lashkar-i-Taiba, a longtime al-Qaeda ally, were pivotal to the November 2008 suicide assault in Mumbai. And motivated recruits such as Abdulmutallab, the alleged Northwest Airlines bomber, and Najibullah Zazi, the Afghan-born U.S. resident arrested in New York last September and charged with plotting a "Mumbai on the Hudson" suicide terrorist operation. And "lone wolves" such as Maj. Nidal Hassan, accused of killing 13 people at Fort Hood in November, and Abdulhakim Muhammad, a convert to Islam who, after returning from Yemen last June, killed one soldier and wounded another outside an Army recruiting center in Little Rock.

But while al-Qaeda is finding new ways to exploit our weaknesses, we are stuck in a pattern of belated responses, rather than anticipating its moves and developing preemptive strategies. The "systemic failure" of intelligence analysis and airport security that Obama recently described was not just the product of a compartmentalized bureaucracy or analytical inattention, but a failure to recognize al-Qaeda's new strategy.

The national security architecture built in the aftermath of Sept. 11 addresses yesterday's threats -- but not today's and certainly not tomorrow's. It is superb at reacting and responding, but not at outsmarting. With our military overcommitted in Iraq and Afghanistan and our intelligence community overstretched by multiplying threats, a new approach to counterterrorism is essential.

"In the never-ending race to protect our country, we have to stay one step ahead of a nimble adversary," Obama said Thursday. He spoke of the need for intelligence and airport security reform, but he could have, and should have, been talking about the need for a new strategy to match al-Qaeda's.

Remarkably, more than eight years after Sept. 11, we still don't fully understand our dynamic and evolutionary enemy. We claim success when it is regrouping and tally killed leaders while more devious plots are being hatched. Al-Qaeda needs to be utterly destroyed. This will be accomplished not just by killing and capturing terrorists -- as we must continue to do -- but by breaking the cycle of radicalization and recruitment that sustains the movement.

Bruce Hoffman is a professor of security studies at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the U.S. Military Academy's Combating Terrorism Center.He will be online to chat with readers on Monday at 11 a.m. Submit your questions and comments before or during the discussion.

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