Afghanistan's Army Braces for Election Violence

By YOCHI J. DREAZEN and ANAND GOPAL

CAMP LEATHERNECK, Afghanistan -- Thursday's presidential elections will be the biggest test to date for the Afghan army and police, which will have primary responsibility for protecting nearly 7,000 polling places from Taliban attack.

Afghan Anti-Corruption Candidate

Ramazan Bashardost, a popular candidate who runs his campaign out of a nomad's tent, may force Afghan elections into a second round. Courtesy of Reuters.

U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan have hit a record high of 62,000, but senior American commanders say their forces will stay in the background on Election Day. U.S. troops will function primarily as "quick response" units charged with reacting to large-scale attacks and preventing Afghan police and army outposts from being overrun.

Reuters

Afghans attend an election rally in support of President Hamid Karzai, who is seeking a second term in the upcoming presidential election.

"They'll be the ones out front and in charge," said Col. George S. Amland, deputy commander of the 2nd Marine Expeditionary Brigade, which oversees more than 4,000 Marines in volatile southern Afghanistan. "We'll help if needed, but security on Election Day will be an Afghan operation."

The hands-off U.S. approach means Afghan security forces will be charged with preventing attacks like Saturday's deadly car bombing outside the gates of the main North Atlantic Treaty Organization headquarters in Kabul.

The suicide attack, the worst in the capital in months, killed at least seven and wounded nearly 100. U.S. military personnel said that the death toll would have been higher if Afghan security personnel hadn't stopped the car and prevented it from drawing closer to the compound.

The attack comes as the Taliban step up their efforts to disrupt the elections, which the armed group sees as illegitimate. The Taliban have pledged to close roads in the areas they control to make it harder for Afghans to vote, and have threatened to harm those who manage to cast ballots.

Qari Yussef Ahmadi, a Taliban spokesman in southern Afghanistan, said in an interview Sunday that the armed group will shift to "new tactics" on Election Day that will involve specifically targeting individual polling centers.

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With Taliban violence and intimidation on the upswing, the elections will be a referendum of sorts on the capabilities of the Afghan security forces, which are emerging as key components of the new U.S. strategy for pacifying the country.

Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, is finalizing a plan to increase the Afghan army to 240,000 from 135,000 and to boost the police to 160,000 from 82,000, according to officers familiar with his thinking. The general is likely to ask the Obama administration for thousands of additional U.S. trainers, the officials said.

The Afghan government plans four levels of security on Election Day. Afghan police will guard the immediate vicinity of each polling site, while the Afghan army will provide perimeter security around individual villages. Afghan officials expect suicide-bombing and car-bombing attempts by the Taliban.

U.S. and NATO forces will have backup forces on high alert in volatile areas of the country, but the foreign troops are being deliberately kept away from polling sites to avoid giving the impression that they are interfering in the process.

The fourth tier of security will come from newly formed tribal militias, who will be stationed on highways and roads leading to individual villages and polling places. The militias will be paid by the government, but will be responsible for providing their own weapons and ammunition.

Taliban Fears Hamper Afghan Election

A spike in attacks and threats by the Taliban cloud the prospects for Afghanistan's election, which are less than a week away. Courtesy of Reuters.

Still, the plan may not be enough to protect all polling sites. Internal Afghan government documents seen by The Wall Street Journal suggest that up to 15% of polling places won't open because of inadequate security.

The majority of those sites are in the south and east of the country, the Taliban's main regional strongholds. In Kandahar, for instance, 40% of provincial polling stations are in areas of Taliban control, according to the documents.

"We won't have an idea about how many of these we will be able to secure until Election Day," said Zekria Barakzai, deputy electoral officer with the Independent Elections Commission, the Afghan body that is conducting the polls.

Three of the leading presidential contenders appeared in a televised debate Sunday, the first attended by President Hamid Karzai, the front-runner. They answered questions from a moderator and didn't address each other.

Mr. Karzai reiterated his pledge to expand nascent talks with the Taliban. The two other candidates, Ashraf Ghani and Ramazan Bashardost, vowed to improve security and fight the corruption that plagues the Karzai administration. Noticeably absent was Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister, who is running second, according to a pair of recent polls.

Write to Yochi J. Dreazen at yochi.dreazen@wsj.com