May 29, 2010

North Korea Exporting Nuke Technology to Burma: UN Experts

Nuclear Bomb BlastImage by Rennett Stowe via Flickr

By EDITH M. LEDERER/ AP WRITER Friday, May 28, 2010

UNITED NATIONS — North Korea is exporting nuclear and ballistic missile technology and using multiple intermediaries, shell companies and overseas criminal networks to circumvent U.N. sanctions, U.N. experts said in a report obtained by The Associated Press.

The seven-member panel monitoring the implementation of sanctions against North Korea said its research indicates that Pyongyang is involved in banned nuclear and ballistic activities in Iran, Syria and Burma. It called for further study of these suspected activities and urged all countries to try to prevent them.

The 47-page report, obtained late Thursday by AP, and a lengthy annex document, details sanctions violations reported by U.N. member states, including four cases involving arms exports and two seizures of luxury goods by Italy — two yachts and high-end recording and video equipment. The report also details the broad range of techniques that North Korea is using to try to evade sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council after its two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.

Council diplomats discussed the report by the experts from Britain, Japan, the United States, France, South Korea, Russia and China at a closed-door meeting on Thursday.

Its release happened to coincide with heightened tensions between North Korea and South Korea over the March sinking of a South Korean navy ship which killed 46 sailors. The council is waiting for South Korea to decide what action it wants the U.N.'s most powerful body to take in response to the sinking, which a multinational investigation determined was caused by a North Korean torpedo.

The panel of experts said there is general agreement that the U.N. embargoes on nuclear and ballistic missile related items and technology, on arms exports and imports except light weapons, and on luxury goods, are having an impact.

But it said the list of eight entities and five individuals currently subject to an asset freeze and travel ban seriously understates those known to be engaged in banned activities and called for additional names to be added. It noted that North Korea moved quickly to have other companies take over activities of the eight banned entities.

The experts said an analysis of the four North Korean attempts to illegally export arms revealed that Pyongyang used "a number of masking techniques" to avoid sanctions. They include providing false descriptions and mislabeling of the contents of shipping containers, falsifying the manifest and information about the origin and destination of the goods, "and use of multiple layers of intermediaries, shell companies, and financial institutions," the panel said.

It noted that a chartered jet intercepted in Thailand in December carrying 35 tons of conventional weapons including surface-to-air missiles from North Korea was owned by a company in the United Arab Emirates, registered in Georgia, leased to a shell company registered in New Zealand and then chartered to another shell company registered in Hong Kong — which may have been an attempt to mask its destination.

North Korea is also concealing arms exports by shipping components in kits for assembly overseas, the experts said.

As one example, the panel said it learned after North Korean military equipment was seized at Durban harbor in South Africa that scores of technicians from the North had gone to the Republic of Congo, where the equipment was to have been assembled.

The experts called for "extra vigilance" at the first overseas port handling North Korean cargo and close monitoring of airplanes flying from the North, saying Pyongyang is believed to use air cargo "to handle high valued and sensitive arms exports."

While North Korea maintains a wide network of trade offices which do legitimate business as well as most of the country's illicit trade and covert acquisitions, the panel said Pyongyang "has also established links with overseas criminal networks to carry out these activities, including the transportation and distribution of illicit and smuggled cargoes."

This may also include goods related to weapons of mass destruction and arms, it added.

Under council resolutions, all countries are required to submit reports on what they are doing to implement sanctions but as of April 30 the panel said it had still not heard from 112 of the 192 U.N. member states — including 51 in Africa, 28 in Asia, and 25 in Latin America and the Caribbean.

While no country reported on nuclear or ballistic missile-related imports or exports from North Korea since the second sanctions resolution was adopted last June, the panel said it reviewed several U.S. and French government assessments, reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency, research papers and media reports indicating Pyongyang's continuing involvement in such activities.
These reports indicate North Korea "has continued to provide missiles, components, and technology to certain countries including Iran and Syria ... (and) has provided assistance for a nuclear program in Syria, including the design and construction of a thermal reactor at Dair Alzour," the panel said.

Syria denied the allegations in a letter to the IAEA, but the U.N. nuclear agency is still trying to obtain reports on the site and its activities, the panel said.

The experts said they are also looking into "suspicious activity in Burma," including activities of Namchongang Trading, one of the companies subject to U.N. sanctions, and reports that Japan in June 2009 arrested three individuals for attempting to illegally export a magnetometer — which measures magnetic fields — to Burma via Malaysia allegedly under the direction of a company known to be associated with illicit procurement for North Korea's nuclear and military programs. The company was not identified.

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May 28, 2010

Southeast-Asia Tweetstream List Now Open on Twitter

Southeast Asia countries, not only ASEANImage via Wikipedia

by John MacDougall

Twitter allows any account holder to create public or private 'lists' on his or her page. On Twitter, a 'list' is an automatically refreshing stream of tweets in real time. While there are many types of people using Twitter for many different purposes, one large easily identifiable group consists of people and organizations who specialize in providing current content.

I've taken advantage of all these Twitter feature to create on my page there six (6) lists, each reflecting one of the six content areas on which Starting Points research blog focuses. All six are set to public. One list, southeast-asia, is ready-to-view, and should be accessible to all (logged-in 'twerps') with one click on its name here. For persons interested in Southeast Asia, t's a vastly more stimulating experience to read these tweets than anything one can find on places like Yahoo Groups, the whole of Facebook, or even Google News and Google Blog Search.

Worth a visit. One click. :-)


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My Tweet Stream Today about Internet Resources

Mum's FlowersImage by ~Prescott via Flickr


  1. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall #Google #Buzz Adds #Reshare #Option: http://bit.ly/9GpOD2 via @addthis #gmail #social #networking
  2. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall Why #Facebook's #privacy war is not over - CNN.com: http://bit.ly/a9N32i via @addthis #internet #twitter - Lucid essay.
  3. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall Hands-On: #Roku's New #Netflix #Interface [PICS]: http://bit.ly/cIGJFD via @addthis #movies #streaming #video #internet
  4. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall Top Places To Get #Free and #Legal #Music: http://bit.ly/bQGZSK via @addthis #sites #blogs #internet
  5. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall Create #Playlists from #Music Blogs with #ExtensionFM: http://bit.ly/czHfWr via @addthis #google #chrome #browser
  6. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall Reputation Management and #Social #Media | #Pew #Research Center's #Internet & #American Life Project: http://bit.ly/bffSHj via @addthis
  7. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall Drill (Down), Baby, Drill: #Facebook’s #New “Simple” #Privacy #Settings Pretty Complex: http://selnd.com/d4SNRv via @addthis - Grade: D.
  8. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall #iGoogle: http://www.google.com/ig via @addthis #personal #homepage -- for everything Googlesque.
  9. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall Welcome to #Google #Wave: https://wave.google.com/wave/ via @addthis #social #professional #networking
  10. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall Official Google #Blog: Happy 1st birthday, #Google #Wave!: http://bit.ly/d0V3dd via @addthis #social #networking
  11. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall #Local #Twitter #People #Search, #Twellowhood: http://www.twellow.com/twellowhood/ via @addthis #internet
  12. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall #Twitter #Yellow #Pages - #Twellow: http://www.twellow.com/ via @addthis #internet
  13. D Rosen dollarmaker7 @JohnAMacDougall Saw your tweet about traffic. This review of Miracle Traffic Bot just might interest you. http://bit.ly/bKLRSc?=njg5
  14. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall List and Links for #Top #1000 #Sites in #Users - http://bit.ly/9fylrc via @addthis #internet #google #research
  15. JohnAMacDougall JohnAMacDougall Starting Points: #Google Names #Facebook Most Visited Site: http://bit.ly/bXHLzj via @addthis #internet #traffic #list #top #1000 #sites

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Google Names Facebook Most Visited Site

Image representing Google as depicted in Crunc...Image via CrunchBase

Daniel Ionescu, PC World

May 28, 2010 9:29 am

Google has publicly released a list of the top 1000 websites in the world, raking the Facebook social networking site as the leading Web property by unique users.

According to Google's AdPlanner stats, Facebook scores more than 540 million unique visitors per month, reaching a sizeable chunk of 35.2 percent of the Internet population.

Facebook not only has the most unique visitors in Google's stats, but also the most page views per month, a whopping 570 billion views, ahead of other properties like Craigslist (#49) with 14 billion views.

The AdPlanner list does not contain any figures for most of Google's own properties, like YouTube, Gmail, News, or Search, but gives an interesting insight into which top Websites do not serve advertising.

Wikipedia (#4) and Mozilla (#10) are the only two Websites in Google's top 10 not to display advertising. A noteworthy entry on the 18th spot in the AdPlanner rankings is Twitter (#18), with 98 million unique visitors per month, which doesn't serve ads.

Destinations portals such as Yahoo.com (#2), MSN.com (#5), Baidu (#8), Sina.com.cn (#11) and 163.com (#15) are also high on the list, probably due to the fact that many people use these sites as their home page.

Search engines also occupy several top places in the AdPlanner list (excluding Google's own Search). Live.com (#2) has over 370 million uniques per month, Bing.com (#13) with 110 million, and Ask.com (#20) with 88 million.

Blogging is also high on Google's list, with Blogspot (Blogger) situated in the 7th place with 230 million uniques, and WordPress.com in the 12th spot with 120 million uniques.

Several news sources made it into the top 100 as well: Cnet.com ranks as #35, BBC.co.uk on #43, CNN.com at #64, and NYTimes.com on #83.

Other entries worth noting among Google's top 1000 websites are Microsoft.com (#6), Adobe.com (#14), Amazon.com (#22), eBay.com (#24), Apple.com (#27) and Hotmail.com (#30).

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Arizona Law Is Stoking Unease Among Latinos

Map of Arizona highlighting Maricopa CountyImage via Wikipedia

PHOENIX — When Gov. Jan Brewer signed Arizona’s new immigration enforcement law, giving police departments broad power to make immigration checks, she sought to allay concerns from Hispanic citizens and legal residents that they would be singled out for scrutiny.

“We have to trust our law enforcement,” Ms. Brewer said. “It’s simple reality. Police officers are going to be respectful. They understand what their jobs are. They’ve taken an oath, and racial profiling isn’t legal.”

Those words ring hollow to many Latinos, including Jesus Ruiz, 25, a college student in Mesa, Ariz., who, like many Latinos here, believes that all too often the police view them suspiciously and single them out for what they consider questionable stops or harassment.

In one stop in 2004, Mr. Ruiz said, an officer pulled him over for speeding 10 miles over the limit and went on to question him on where he was going to school and whether he lived with his parents, and finally asked for his Social Security number.

“I was thinking, is he supposed to be asking me for that and all these questions for a speeding ticket?” said Mr. Ruiz, who spray painted himself white and wrote on his body, “Am I reasonably suspicious?” at a recent protest against the new law, which goes into effect in late July.

But it is not just young people.

Judge Jose Padilla of Maricopa County Superior Court in Phoenix, says that twice since he became a judge in 2006, the police have pulled him over, alleging minor traffic infractions. Even though Judge Padilla, 60, did not disclose his occupation, he ended up not receiving a ticket. He said his complaints to the police department led to sensitivity training for the officers.

Judge Padilla believes the stops were based on his Hispanic ancestry and the fact that his 1988 pickup truck has large wheels and resembles a low rider, a customized car popular in Mexican-American culture but also favored by some street gangs.

Mexican AmericanImage via Wikipedia

“This has been lifelong, these stops,” he said, “and it is not just me.”

Now, Latinos and several police chiefs say they worry that the law, which requires the police, “when practicable” and if they have reasonable suspicion, to check the immigration status of people they stop, detain or arrest for another reason, will widen a chasm of trust that they have struggled to close.

Those concerns have reached the Justice Department, which is considering challenging the law in court, out of a concern, as Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. said on ABC’s “This Week,” that “we could potentially get on a slippery slope where people will be picked on because of how they look as opposed to what they have done.”

Though President Obama again criticized the law at a news conference Thursday, a majority of Americans support it, according to a CBS News poll released Tuesday. But recent surveys suggest a split along ethnic lines, with a majority of Latinos opposed to it. An Associated Press-Univision poll released May 13 showed nearly two-thirds of Hispanics opposed the Arizona law, compared with just 20 percent of non-Hispanics (45 percent favored it and 30 percent were neutral).

Antonio Bustamante, a veteran civil rights lawyer here who is helping organize protests against the law, explained by saying, “The majority in the country has not experienced being profiled so they don’t perceive it as an issue, just like they don’t accept discrimination in the country because they have not been discriminated against.”

Roberto Villaseñor, the chief of police in Tucson, said in a recent conference call with reporters that his city “is divided about this issue,” and he worries that immigrants will not report crimes or turn in criminals out of fear, justified or not, they will end up deported.

The law, Chief Villaseñor said, will instill “a level of mistrust” particularly in immigrant communities and break down years of efforts to combat the perception that the police collaborate with immigration agents.

Already, he said, there are anecdotal reports that some police departments in the state are asking people for their papers. He said his department had received a picture of a patrol car near a Border Patrol vehicle, as if proximity proved that officers were already collaborating to carry out the law.

Tensions between law enforcement and some Latinos have deep roots but have been aggravated by a spate of recent incidents and lawsuits.

A study conducted as part of the settlement of a racial profiling suit brought against the Arizona State Police found that over a one-year period ending in 2007, blacks and Hispanics were two and a half times more likely than whites to be searched by highway patrol officers even though the rate of seizure of contraband among whites was higher than for Hispanics and about the same as for blacks.

Memories also burn strong here of the so-called Chandler roundup, where the police in that Phoenix suburb worked with immigration agents to arrest more than 400 illegal immigrants — stopping scores of Latino citizens and legal residents to check their papers, in the process. The city settled a subsequent lawsuit for $500,000.

Today, a federal lawsuit and a Justice Department investigation continue against Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County, who has been criticized for using stops for traffic offenses in a series of “crime suppression operations” to check people’s immigration status throughout metropolitan Phoenix.

It remains unclear what criteria the police will use in deciding what is a reasonable suspicion a person they stop is an illegal immigrant.

The new state law says the police cannot use race, color or ethnicity “except to the extent permitted by the United States or Arizona Constitution.”

Some civil rights lawyers find that clause worrisome.

They note that federal courts and the Arizona Supreme Court have upheld the right of federal agents enforcing immigration law to consider someone’s ethnicity, especially at or near the border, when deciding to question someone suspected of being an illegal immigrant.

A training manual as part of an Immigration and Customs Enforcement program known as 287(g), which deputizes specially trained state and local police as immigration officers, lists a number of factors that can be used to make an immigration query, including “Does the subject have a thick foreign accent or appear not to speak English?” and “Does the subject’s appearance look like it is ‘out of place’ or as though the subject has just traveled?” and “Is the area known for its attraction to illegal aliens?”

Federal officials said the manual was being revised to clarify the criteria and emphasize that several other factors must be considered.

David Salgado, a Phoenix police officer who has filed one of five lawsuits to block the law, said it would be impossible not to take race or ethnicity into account to develop reasonable suspicion, given the proximity to the border and region’s large Hispanic population.

Officer Salgado said the fact that officers can check immigration status only after a stop for another reason is essentially meaningless because “you drive two or three blocks down the street I will find something to pull you over for — going over the double line, forgetting to signal for a lane change, it’s not hard.”

Nina Perales, a lawyer with the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund, which also has sued, said non-Hispanic illegal immigrants would get a free pass.

“How does law enforcement form a reasonable suspicion that a white person is an alien absent a flat-out admission they are?” Ms. Perales asked.

Still, many Arizonans who support the law believe racial profiling concerns are overblown or a smokescreen to hide a belief that borders should be wide open.

“The police will do the right thing. The majority of them do,” said Sunday Schwein, a retired nurse in Payson, Ariz. “I really doubt they will pick people out just because of their race.”

Under an executive order signed by Ms. Brewer, the state’s police training board is developing a training course designed to guide officers in developing reasonable suspicion that somebody is an illegal immigrant.

A letter from the board to the governor last week indicated the training, in the form of a DVD with handouts for every officer in the state, would reflect that given to federal immigration officers as well as the state’s Department of Public Safety.

While several police chiefs oppose the law, groups representing rank-and-file officers support it and play down the concerns about racial profiling.

The Phoenix Law Enforcement Association, a union representing police officers that supports the law, said some factors that might provoke reasonable suspicion include someone not carrying identification or using fake identification or possessing foreign identification without a visa.

But many Latinos remain unconvinced.

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Downturn Does Little to Slow Global Flow of Workers

World's Most Important Current Migration Route...Image by inju via Flickr

MANILA — The world may be staggering through its worst economy in 70 years, but international migration, an ever-growing force, shows few signs of retreat.

Globally, the number of migrants appears undiminished, and last year they sent home more money than forecasters expected. Many migrants did lose jobs, but few decided to return home, even when others offered to pay.

In some places, demand for foreign labor grew.

From the Arizona Statehouse to Calabria, critics warn that porous borders hurt native workers, threaten local cultures and increase crime. But even a downturn of rare magnitude did less than expected to slow the flows, revealing instead the persistent forces that keep migrants venturing abroad.

Perhaps no place shows the lure of migration as much as the Philippines, a nation of nearly 100 million people, where a quarter of the labor force works overseas. Despite the world’s sagging economy, the country set records last year for the number of workers sent abroad and the sums they returned.

“We hardly felt it — the global financial crisis,” said Marianito D. Roque, the labor secretary, who has been promoting the virtues of Filipino workers from Alberta to Abu Dhabi.

On every corner of this jeepney-jammed capital, someone seems to be coming from or going to a job overseas. At the Magsaysay Training Center, beside Manila Bay, college graduates scrub replicas of cruise ship cabins, hoping for housekeeping jobs that can pay four times the local wage. A park across the street doubles as a sailors’ bazaar, a reminder that the Philippines supplies at least a fifth of the world’s seafarers.

In government seminars a mile away, throngs of outbound maids learn to greet future bosses in Arabic, Italian and Cantonese. Some cry through a film about a nanny who wins an overseas job but loses the love of her children.

Doctors go abroad to work as nurses. Teachers go to work as maids. Would-be migrants set off sparks at the Tesda Women’s Center, where the government offers free training to female welders.

One of them, Desiree Reyes, 29, spent three years assembling computers in Taiwan until the recession idled the factory. Back home, she heard that Australia needed welders and paid up to $2,500 a month, about 10 times her Manila wage.

“I want to go abroad again, and they’re saying that women welders have more opportunities,” she said.

Elsewhere on campus, women learn to fix cars, sew skirts and set banquet tables. Posters celebrate alumnae overseas. (“Marjury Briones is now working at the Pars Hotel in Bahrain as a flair bartender.”)

With soft features, Ms. Reyes looks more like a cosmetics clerk than an industrial trainee. But she likes the sight of molten metal and ignores the burn marks on her hands. “I don’t think of it as man’s work — it’s just work,” she said. “Life in the Philippines is tough.”

The financial crisis follows an age of growing mobility that has scattered migrant workers across the globe. Polish nannies raise Irish children and Indians build towers in Dubai. Of 15 million American jobs created in the decade before the bust, nearly 60 percent were filled by the foreign born, according to a report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. To be sure, the crisis has hurt migrants, often disproportionately. A report by the Migration Policy Institute found that in the past three years, joblessness grew by 4.7 percentage points among native-born Americans, while rising 9.1 points among immigrants from Mexico and Central America.

Anti-immigrant feeling in some places has swelled, at times to the point of violence. South African riots in 2008 killed dozens of African migrants, including many Zimbabweans. In Italy, attacks on African farm workers this year brought condemnation from the pope.

But with few exceptions, the hard times have not sent migrants home. Spain, Japan and the Czech Republic tried to pay foreign workers to go, but found few takers. Likewise, the number of Mexicans leaving the United States has not grown, said Jeffrey S. Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center. While the economy and tightened borders have reduced new arrivals, he said, the total population of Mexican migrants remains unchanged.

Hania Zlotnik, director of the United Nations Population Division, said, “Worldwide, the crisis has slowed the growth of migration, but the number of migrants is still increasing.”

There are many reasons. Some “receiving” countries have escaped recession, especially in the Middle East. Some “sending” countries have been hit hard, giving migrants more reason to leave or stay away. Even in bad economies, migrants typically do work that others avoid, like picking crops or cleaning toilets.

And many migrants move for noneconomic reasons, to join spouses or parents. That helps explain why migration, once established, is hard to reverse.

Still, even scholars who have long studied these dynamics expected the battered global economy to have done more to deter migration. “It is the resiliency of international migration flows that again is most striking,” wrote two migration scholars, Stephen Castles of the University of Oxford and Mark J. Miller of the University of Delaware, in an April paper.

To grasp the tenacity of migrants, consider Fortz Portagana, 58, a Filipino who moved to Oman in 2006 to start a small shipping business. When the economy swooned, “I had it in my mind to go back — but what can I do back home?” he said.

He had exhausted his savings to go abroad, and returning empty-handed to his small farm would mean a loss of face. Instead, he borrowed from relatives with jobs in the Middle East, cut expenses and continued to send home $200 a month.

When business improved, he hired one son and found a job for another. A cycle that began with one migrant worker in Muscat ended with three. “This is a better place for them to make a living,” Mr. Portagana said.

Migrants from the developing world sent home $316 billion last year, according to the World Bank. That was 6 percent less than the previous year, but more than the bank predicted, and $80 billion more than migrants sent as recently as 2006. Since private investment fell much more, the relative importance of the migrants’ money grew.

While remittances to Mexico took an outsize hit (16 percent over two years), the Philippines offers a contrasting model of overseas work.

Mexicans are closely tied to one place (the United States), and one industry (construction). Filipinos work across the globe in dozens of occupations. Mexican migration is unmanaged and mostly illegal. Filipino workers are promoted by the state, and most go with contracts and visas.

Mr. Roque has spent his career selling Filipino labor, and as the economy slowed he stepped up his marketing. He won agreements with four Canadian provinces, which took thousands of temporary workers, including nurses, nannies, and coffee shop workers. In Saudi Arabia, a construction boom brought more jobs in the building trades. In 2008, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo made a plea to the emir of Qatar for more work visas.

Despite the downturn, annual deployments of workers rose by a third over the past two years, to 1.4 million. The sums they sent home rose 19 percent, to $19.4 billion, according to the World Bank. “People were projecting a doomsday scenario,” Mr. Roque said.

The Magsaysay Training Center in Manila feels less like a vocational school than a theme park of migrant trades, filled with replicas of foreign work sites.

Student sailors in a simulator room steer ships through high-tech storms. Student bakers in toques practice cream puff injections. A glass wall offers a view of a luxury hotel room, where instructors watch trainees wipe the marble bath and stock the minibar.

Brynnerson Cepe, 25, beamed as he bustled about in a crisp gold uniform. He spent four years earning a college degree in hotel and restaurant management and three years as a Starbucks supervisor. But in the hierarchy of Philippine status and pay, the real upward movement would come from making a hotel bed overseas. “You can earn double or more,” he said. “And you can get other opportunities.”

The social costs of migration — abused workers, adultery, abandoned families — are widely recognized here, even as poverty persuades many people to leave.

Last month, the government brought home four planeloads of distressed workers from the Middle East. Some had lived for months in Philippine Embassies after running away from abusive bosses. They arrived to a scene of manufactured festivity.

A parade of maids wore matching T-shirts, donated by a corporate sponsor. President Arroyo, who calls migrants “heroes,” arrived to shake hands. A Filipino comic did a routine, leaving television cameras to capture the laughter of the dispossessed.

Ivy Lumagbas, 31, said she did not know whether to laugh or cry. She had gone to Dubai because her husband was jobless and her children hungry. The conditions were so bad — one meal a day, she said, and four hours of sleep — she barely lasted a month. But she was already saying that she might have to go back.

“When I see how many of us there are, I feel hopeless” about getting work at home, she said.

Then she joined in waving a Philippine flag and singing the national anthem, which celebrates the “chosen land” so many feel they must leave.

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Rhetoric grows heated in water dispute between India, Pakistan

onthewaterImage by charliegordon via Flickr

By Karin Brulliard
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, May 28, 2010; A14

LAHORE, PAKISTAN -- The latest standoff between India and Pakistan features familiar elements: perceived Indian injustices, calls to arms by Pakistani extremists. But this dispute centers on something different: water.

Militant organizations traditionally focused on liberating Indian-held Kashmir have adopted water as a rallying cry, accusing India of strangling upstream rivers to desiccate downstream farms in Pakistan's dry agricultural heartland. This spring, a religious leader suspected of links to the 2008 Mumbai attacks led a protest here of thousands of farmers driving tractors and carrying signs warning: "Water Flows or Blood." The cleric, Hafiz Sayeed, recently told worshipers that India was guilty of "water terrorism."

India and Pakistan have pledged to improve relations. But Sayeed's water rhetoric, echoed in shrill headlines on both sides of the border, encapsulates two issues that threaten those fragile peace efforts -- an Indian dam project on the shared Indus River and Pakistan's reluctance to crack down on Sayeed.

It also signals the expanding ambitions of Punjab-based militant groups such as the banned Lashkar-i-Taiba, founded by Sayeed, through an issue that touches millions who live off Pakistan's increasingly arid land.

Pakistan's water supply is dwindling because of climate change, outdated farming techniques and an exploding population. Now Pakistan says India is exacerbating its woes by violating the treaty that for 50 years has governed use of water originating in Kashmir.

India denies the charge, and its ambassador to Pakistan recently called the water theft allegations "preposterous." International water experts say that there is little evidence India is diverting water from Pakistan but that Pakistan is right to feel vulnerable because its water is downstream of India's.

Washington has pressured the two nations to settle their differences. India and Pakistan have fought three major wars, and the conflict has kept much of Pakistan's army focused eastward, not on Islamist insurgents. India wants Pakistan to target India-focused militants, and it is outraged that Sayeed -- whose sermons often call for jihad against India -- remains free. India blamed the Mumbai attacks on Lashkar-i-Taiba.

Yet even as the nations' civilian leaders were building bridges, Pakistan's military underscored the perceived Indian threat last month with large-scale military exercises near the border. With the Kashmir liberation struggle waning in Pakistan's public consciousness, some analysts say Sayeed's use of the water issue demonstrates his long-standing links to Pakistan's powerful security establishment, elements of which do not favor peacemaking.

"Hafiz Sayeed is trying to echo the establishment's line," said Rifaat Hussain, a professor of security studies at Qaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. "The government is trying to shift the focus of Kashmir as part of a jihadist thing . . . to an existential issue."

Hydroelectric projects

Politics aside, experts say, Pakistan's water situation is reaching crisis proportions. As the population has grown over six decades, per-capita water availability has dropped by more than two-thirds. About 90 percent of the water is used for agriculture, making it an economic lifeline but leaving little for human consumption.

Inefficient irrigation and drainage techniques have degraded soil and worsened shortages, forcing many small farmers to pump for groundwater. A severe electricity crisis means most rely on diesel-powered pumps, but fuel prices are rising, said M. Ibrahim Mughal, head of Agri Forum, a farmers' advocacy group.

"You can't do agriculture without water," he said. "What will happen? Hunger."

The Indus Waters Treaty, which India and Pakistan signed in 1960, gave each country unfettered access to three rivers and limited rights to the other nation's rivers. A joint commission oversees the treaty, which water experts say has worked fairly well.

Cooperation has frayed as water has grown scarcer and India has stepped up new hydroelectric projects in Kashmir. Those plans have raised alarm in Pakistan, where newspapers and politicians regularly accuse India of secret designs to weaken its enemy by diverting water. Pakistan's Indus Water Commissioner, Jamaat Ali Shah, said his country believes that one proposed Indian dam on the Kishanganga, an Indus tributary, violates the treaty by making Pakistan's own plans for a hydroelectric project downstream unworkable.

"Candidness and transparency should be there. It is not," Shah said.

In a speech last month, India's ambassador to Pakistan, Sharat Sabharwal, said Pakistan has not detailed its complaints. Pakistan's water problems are attributable to factors including climatic conditions, he said, and blaming India was meant to "inflame public passions."

'Water declaration'

That is exactly what Sayeed is trying to do, according to Yahya Mujahid, a spokesman for the radical cleric's Islamic charity, Jamaat-ud-Dawa. The charity, which the United States and India call a front for Lashkar-i-Taiba, recently sponsored the farmer protest and released a "water declaration" alleging that India had "virtually declared war on Pakistan by unlawfully constructing dams and diverting Pakistani rivers."

Lashkar-i-Taiba has taken its fight against India beyond the disputed terrain of Kashmir to stage attacks in Afghanistan and work with militant organizations in Pakistan's northwest. But Sayeed has typically sought to uphold the group's Kashmir-focused reputation, making water a bit of a departure. Mujahid said Sayeed is helping desperate farmers pressure the government to solve their problems, not inciting jihad. But peace talks are unlikely to help, he said.

The dispute has hard-liners in both countries predicting war, alarming observers who say what should be a technical issue has veered into dangerous terrain.

John Briscoe, a Harvard professor and former World Bank water specialist in Pakistan and India, said allegations of India's "water robbery" are unfounded. But because India could influence river flows into Pakistan, he said, the wisest solution would be for India to initiate talks and perhaps call for a permanent neutral party to implement the treaty.

"On the Indian side, the last thing I would want to come into India-Pakistan relations is an issue as visceral as water," Briscoe said. But, he added, "it's all about politics and political will."

Special correspondent Shaiq Hussain contributed to this report.

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Thailand tries to go after financial backers of 'red shirts'

Thaksin Shinawatra, prime minister of Thailand...Image via Wikipedia

By Andrew Higgins
Friday, May 28, 2010; A01

BANGKOK -- Victorious over rice farmers in flip-flops and riffraff with slingshots, molotov cocktails and a few guns, the commander in chief of the Royal Thai Army has moved swiftly to contain another menace: a golf-loving steel tycoon and maker of Nestle instant coffee.

Multimillionaire businessman Prayudh Mahagitsiri is now No. 21 on the latest installment of an expanding financial blacklist issued by the Center for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation, a body handling Thailand's gravest political crisis since the founding of the modern Thai state in 1932.

Prayudh, along with 151 other businessmen, politicians, lawyers and other alleged financiers of "red shirt" protests, has seen his bank accounts frozen and been ordered to report details of all financial transactions since September to authorities. The aim, said an emergency decree signed by Gen. Anupong Paochinda, is to root out threats to "national security and the safety of citizens" and "get rid of this problem effectively and immediately."

Last week, the Thai military forcibly ended a nine-week protest that had paralyzed central Bangkok, resulting in a frenzy of arson and looting. In all, more than 85 people died in the mayhem and earlier violence.

One of Asia's most vibrant economies is now getting cleaned up and back in business, but the government's campaign to rip out the roots of the protests once and for all has turned on some of Thailand's wealthiest businesspeople.

This economic assault has highlighted a curious and highly volatile feature of a raucous struggle often seen as a battle between Thailand's haves and have-nots. Although many rank-and-file red shirts are relatively poor and many of their most strident critics -- "yellow shirts" -- are fairly well-to-do, Thailand's far-from-resolved confrontation is also a clash within Thailand's elite.

"This is an ideological conflict mixed up with a business conflict. Business competition has always been muddled with political competition. But this is much more vindictive," said Chris Baker, a longtime resident of Thailand and co-author of a recent book about Thailand's billionaire former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra.

On Tuesday, Thailand issued an arrest warrant on terrorism charges against Thaksin, a U.S.-educated former policeman who made a fortune off mobile telephones, TV, golf courses and other ventures. He won two elections, styled himself "CEO Prime Minister" and presided over a period of roaring economic growth -- and also mass executions of alleged criminals -- while serving as leader from 2001 to 2006, when he was overthrown in a military coup. He's now in self-imposed exile abroad.

"They are tightening the noose," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. Arrests, censorship and the financial inquest have put Thailand on "a slippery slope," he said, adding: "The creeping fear is that this could become a witch hunt. The question is: Who is next?"

Noppadon Pattama, a former foreign minister whose bank accounts have been frozen, denounced the financial probe as "clearly politically motivated." Like many on the financial blacklist, Noppadon is close to Thaksin.

The government denied engaging in a political vendetta. The money probe, said spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn, is "not a tool for political conflict" but a response to a security threat. "People who have nothing to hide have nothing to worry about," said Panitan, a political scientist who taught for a time at Johns Hopkins University.

Twenty companies, most of them owned by relatives or close associates of Thaksin, are also under investigation. Like individuals on the list, they are barred from making bank, stock, insurance or other transactions without government permission. Authorities have made public no evidence of wrongdoing and have stumbled over details: One blacklisted company closed years ago.

Thailand's business community, like the rest of the country, is bitterly divided.

When Bangkok lurched toward anarchy last week, mostly pro-Thaksin red shirts turned with fury on property owned by rich families they viewed as hostile or lukewarm to their movement. Police stood by as rioters torched branches of Bangkok Bank and the country's biggest shopping mall, CentralWorld.

The arson attacks mirrored, albeit with far more violence, a campaign launched in early 2006 by opponents of Thaksin to boycott businesses close to the then prime minister. Six months later, the military removed Thaksin and set up a commission to investigate his business network.

That investigation began a long effort to choke off Thaksin's money. It climaxed in February when Thailand's Supreme Court confiscated $1.4 billion of frozen Thaksin assets. The court ruling allowed him to keep about $900 million. Soon after the court decision, red shirts began mobilizing for an occupation of downtown Bangkok.

Sean Boonpracong, a former resident of Herndon, Va., who helped lead the red shirt invasion, said after release from military interrogation over the weekend that protesters got $130,000 a day -- far less than official estimates -- from "friends of Thaksin" for food, generator fuel and other supplies. He denied that any had been used to buy weapons, adding that red shirts discussed setting up an armed wing but rejected the idea.

Some of those on the blacklist sympathized with the red shirt cause, which boiled down to a demand that the government quit and call early elections that would possibly return Thaksin's allies to power. A shopping center owned by one targeted businessman leased space to a host of now-defunct red shirt ventures, including an anti-government TV station, a journal called Red News, the Red Cafe and also the Red Shop, filled with Thaksin dolls, Thaksin T-shirts and books praising Thaksin.

Other tycoons suffered heavy losses from the turmoil they're accused of bankrolling. Particularly hard hit was Panlert Baiyoke, owner of the Baiyoke Sky Hotel, an 88-story Bangkok landmark with 658 guest rooms. The hotel had just one guest last week. This week it had 20.

Prayudh, the coffee maker and chief executive of a steel venture called Thainox Stainless, declined to comment on allegations that he helped fund the protesters.

The government has given no evidence of misbehavior by Prayudh other than a long association with Thaksin. The corporate headquarters of Thainox displays a 2001 photo of Prayudh receiving a business award from Thaksin.

Prayudh made his first big money from a coffee joint venture set up in 1972 with the Swiss multinational Nestle. Nophadol Siwabur, director of corporate affairs for Nestle in Thailand, said the blacklist "is essentially a private matter for Mr. Prayudh." Nestle, he added, "keeps a strict neutrality in political matters."

This hasn't helped Nestle escape the consequences of politics: Its Bangkok offices were in CentralWorld, the shopping and office plaza torched by protesters.

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